Avadel Pharmaceuticals plc (AVDL)

NasdaqGM - NasdaqGM Real Time Price. Currency in USD

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Visitors trend2W10W9M

6.78

-0.03

(-0.37%)

As of 03:34PM EDT. Market open.

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j
I want to take a simple survey here and hope everyone participates. This is a multiple choice question.

As an Avadel share holder I

a)am holding for the long term and don't care about the MMH results but of course would like to see launch sooner rather than later. Not buying or selling just holding for the future.
b)am fearful that Avadel will lose the hearing and the stock will go down so I might still sell before the MMH
c)am confident that Avadel will win the MMH and launch their drug later this year and am going to add more shares at these prices.
d)I am not a share holder. I am short the stock because I believe they will lose both the upcoming MMH and the Administrative hearing next month and the share price will drop lower and I will then cover and profit from their loss.
j
Probable good news. My large retail investor contact says he knows a hedge fund manager he spoke with today that has a small position but will now be adding "substantially" going into the hearing since he thinks Avadel will win the hearing and launch this year. He said he believes this will be the turning point resulting in a rush to buy and the remaining short position will be forced into cover. 4.7 million shares covering while there is buying could give the share price a large over due boost. If the price starts going up into the hearing it will most likely be because of his buying. I looked up this guys credentials and his fund manages over $2B. I won't give the name because I was asked not to. My contact has no reason to lie but I will believe it if I see a move creating the next wave up meaning the stock has to first be bought up and close over $7.30 because then technically it will become a strong buy and that is when the next real leg up will be triggered. Lets see what happens as we are close to the hearing date. We retail investors don't have much buying power to fight off any significant shorting which is what I think was going on this morning. I hope this guy buys in big and destroys the remaining short position.
M
I started keeping up this company when I bought a whole bunch of shares at $2.40. I've added many shares since than and have been happy with the return. I am reconsidering my approach as the value of this investment seems to be sitting in the long. Was wondering a few things though. Can someone explain how AVDL may have an upper hand at delisting the patent? I read that they tried delisting the '963 and failed, what's different this time? It seems they are approaching a roadblock at this markman hearing that may require a much longer process. Joe, I know your the guy here so feel free to rip me if I am misunderstanding. lol.
j
Here we go again. Drop the stock down under $6.50 on only 100k shares. Do not understand the volume imbalance in the trading of the stock. Stock makes its real moves up on higher than normal volume and then they drift it down to give it back on low volume. This stock should be over $8 by now on its way to $10 as we approach the MMH. I don't want to cry manipulation but the trading makes very little sense.
O
HRMY currently sports a $2.9B market cap. Their one and only drug, Wakix, has current revenue run-rates of $107M/Q(or, $428M/Y). $2.9B divided by $428M = HRMY currently enjoying a 6.8(X)-market multiple...

Lets say LUMRYX does about $1B peak sales(which is only about half of XYREM/XYWAV current revenue run-rate, and only about 1/3 of AVDL's professional research estimated future marketspace opportunity when once-a-night SO therapy creates significant market expansion) and only slap a 4(X)-market multiple, (not HRMY's current 6.8(X))..

You would have a stock that is trading at 10(X) today's price...

I prefer the essentially de-risked future $70+s print tomorrow(meaning a few years out from now).....
M
Just added 2000 shares 💪🇺🇸🚀
Bullish
A
Apologies if anyone has posted this link before, but I found an interesting write up about AVDL vs the FDA suit. https://www.thefdalawblog.com/2022/08/new-lawsuit-challenges-fdas-authority-to-compel-patent-certifications/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=new-lawsuit-challenges-fdas-authority-to-compel-patent-certifications
A
Just few thoughts about the potential BO by Jazz. I'm not an insider, don't have Bruce's phone number, don't know fund managers, I'm not an experienced bio investor and I have much less shares than most of you. Whatever I write is just my own speculation.
So, if Bruce is about to open his purse before MMH, why didn't he do the same before our original PDUFA date of 15th Oct? I mean, if he wants to minimize the price to pay, he has to act before the big event (this time the MMH). But if he does it, why didn't he do it before the PDUFA? He let it happen and it turned out to be a postpone, so he won (some time for his X empire). Following this logic, he won't act until the judge kills patent 963. I'm saying Bruce rather wants to wait how the domino falls, because maybe it will fall in his favor and ready to pay a higher price tag if the event outcome is bad for him, but good for the competitor. I don't expect him to proactively mitigate the risks, instead he acts only when he really needs to.
But again, this is just my opinion and we know that opinions are like...
j
My large Avadel investor contact now is talking about the drug company mentioned before that has had an interest in Avadel months ago. Bruce could be left completely out of the picture if he is waiting on the MMH results first to see if he could stall out some more. I think things are soon going to heat up and we might end up with a bidding war between the two parties or the original party will make a reasonable offer and its over for Jazz.

One thing for sure, if we get bought out soon its not going to be for a measly $7.
M
I posted yesterday: AVDL and JAZZ will need to coordinate their REMs patient data. Can JAZZ delay/cause difficulties in this regard?
What recourse does AVDL have if JAZZ drags it's feet and/or refuses to coordinate their patient databases.
Anybody with experience in this area?
F
Well well

clock is ticking... meanwhile, I am feeling that I have to do my own apology. I have been too optimistic about the FDA in my article :

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4404987-avadel-pharmaceuticals-looking-good-investors-patients-narcolepsy

FDA has been clearly under influence, if not threat from Jazz. I think we'll never know to which level, however, I am convinced that at some point some dirty trick was being used.

31st of August outcome will be key to AVDL future. I Hope that judge Noreika has a clear view of 1) what is at stake 2) This 963 futile patent that shouldn't have never been on our way. In all logics, the outcome shoudl be favorable to AVDL, but I am not sure that logics do have a role in this game where billions of dollars are in play, even in the US where justice is supposed to be independant from the economic power.
We'll see;;;; but in any case AVDL will get its deserved stake in this market, if not this year, in 2023 following patent expiration.
Avadel's flagship compound, FT218, is on its way towards approval with the FDA.
Avadel's flagship compound, FT218, is on its way towards approval with the FDA.
seekingalpha.com
O
Technical tea leaves suggest that AVDL should be moving into the $8's pronto
T
I have Aug 5 calls that I bought for about 0.50. I plan on exercising and holding the stock for the big payday that I believe will come. Anyone else doing the same?
Bullish
j
All institutions now updated on Nasdaq web site. . Our #1 holder RTW did not sell any shares - still holding over 5.7M shares.

The big sell outs were Avoro 1.6M and Janus 1.4M. Acuta sold their 580k share position.
Decreases of larger holders were:
Polar sold 386k shares - still holds 2.8M
Woodline sold 530k shares -still holds 1.6M
So that is where any selling pressure came from on the big dump down.

New positions Pura Vida 789k shares, Two Sigma 468k shares, Millennium 212k shares

Already mentioned Brandes adding 642k shares and #2 largest holder Jeffrey Gendell added 1.4M shares
B
Time to add more shares
J
Markman hearing is August 31st. Judge could decide the REMS patent not listable or decide a claim construction that favors AVDL. AVDL also renewed its previous motion (before the Markman process) about delisting the patent from the Orange Book, and Judge could decide that motion on the 31st too. Good luck AVDL long holders.
Bullish
F
Let us not forget that there are other suitors that also might be making a play forAVDL.
HRMY as well as TAK.
A
Also, I hadn't seen this mentioned before, but I believe this is the same judge that oversaw the ruling on October 19, 2021.

https://www.ded.uscourts.gov/sites/ded/files/opinions/21-691.pdf

https://www.bloomberglaw.com/public/desktop/document/JazzPharmaceuticalsIncvAvadelCNSPharmaceuticalsLLCDocketNo122cv00?1660703509
j
The stock is obviously being played. Whenever some real buying comes in we see some steep increases on higher volume but then they trade it down on much lighter volume. This means there is a buy/sell volume imbalance with the imbalance to the buy side. I suspect they are shorting the stock after this last move up over $7.50 otherwise they will have a hard time containing it from further rapid gains. Do not think they want to be holding short positions into the MMH date based on the probability of an Avadel win.
j
I am about 95% certain the judge will not support Jazz's 963 patent because it is NOT a method of dug use. That's the only definition that needs interpretation here and there is no way a judge is going to agree that a single computer system and software designed to track a control drug is a method of drug use. It really is that simple.

If the judge is on the take and rules in Jazz' favor(yes that would be the only reason to side with Jazz) Avadel will get another shot at justice at next month's administrative hearing.

I can not imagine Jazz prevailing on this patent that should not have been on the orange book in the first place!

Let them keep shorting and let's see where they get to cover in 2 weeks.