BARC.L - Barclays PLC

LSE - LSE Delayed Price. Currency in GBp
122.62
+2.78 (+2.32%)
At close: 4:35PM BST
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  • Short Term
    2W - 6W
  • Mid Term
    6W - 9M
  • Long Term
    9M+
Previous Close119.84
Open121.52
Bid122.60 x 0
Ask122.66 x 0
Day's Range118.40 - 124.93
52 Week Range73.04 - 192.99
Volume88,193,431
Avg. Volume90,650,390
Market Cap21.259B
Beta (5Y Monthly)1.21
PE Ratio (TTM)10.57
EPS (TTM)11.60
Earnings DateJul 29, 2020
Forward Dividend & YieldN/A (N/A)
Ex-Dividend DateFeb 27, 2020
1y Target Est221.84
Fair Value is the appropriate price for the shares of a company, based on its earnings and growth rate also interpreted as when P/E Ratio = Growth Rate. Estimated return represents the projected annual return you might expect after purchasing shares in the company and holding them over the default time horizon of 5 years, based on the EPS growth rate that we have projected.
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    • U.S. judge orders 15 banks to face big investors' currency rigging lawsuit
      Reuters

      U.S. judge orders 15 banks to face big investors' currency rigging lawsuit

      A U.S. judge on Thursday said institutional investors, including BlackRock Inc <BLK.N> and Allianz SE's <ALVG.DE> Pacific Investment Management Co, can pursue much of their lawsuit accusing 15 major banks of rigging prices in the $6.6 trillion-a-day foreign exchange market. U.S. District Judge Lorna Schofield in Manhattan said the nearly 1,300 plaintiffs, including many mutual funds and exchange-traded funds, plausibly alleged that the banks conspired to rig currency benchmarks from 2003 to 2013 and profit at their expense. "This is an injury of the type the antitrust laws were intended to prevent," Schofield wrote in a 40-page decision.

    • Moody's

      Massachusetts Department of Transportation Metropolitan Highway System, Revenue Bonds (Senior) Variable Rate Demand Obligation 2010, Series A-2, $107.665MM -- Moody's reviews Massachusetts Department of Transportation Revenue Bonds Series 2010 A-2

      Moody's Investors Service (Moody's), at the request of the Massachusetts Department of Transportation, has reviewed the documents submitted to us in connection with the issuance of a substitute letter of credit to be provided by TD Bank, N.A. (the Bank) in support of the Massachusetts Department of Transportation (MassDOT) Metropolitan Highway System Revenue Bonds (Senior) Variable Rate Demand Obligations, 2010 Series A-2 (the Bonds). The substitute letter of credit will replace the letter of credit from Barclays Bank PLC currently supporting the Bonds.

    • Moody's

      Moody's Fully Supported Municipal & IRB Deals

      Announcement: Moody's Fully Supported Municipal& IRB Deals. Global Credit Research- 27 May 2020. New York, May 27, 2020-- ASSIGNMENTS:.

    • Moody's

      Custodial Receipts (Barclays), Custodial Receipts, Series 2017-XM0503 -- Moody's assigns enhanced Aa2 to Custodial Receipts (Barclays), Series 2017-XM0503

      Moody's Investors Service (Moody's) has assigned a Aa2 enhanced rating to Custodial Receipts (Barclays), Custodial Receipts, Series 2017-XM0503 evidencing beneficial ownership of City of San Jose, California, Airport Revenue Refunding Bonds, Series 2017A (AMT) (the Bonds). The rating is based upon joint default analysis (JDA), which reflects Moody's approach to rating jointly supported transactions.

    • Moody's

      Custodial Receipts (Barclays), Custodial Receipts, Series 2017-XL0046 -- Moody's assigns enhanced Aa2 to Custodial Receipts (Barclays), Series 2017-XL0046

      Moody's Investors Service (Moody's) has assigned a Aa2 enhanced rating to Custodial Receipts (Barclays), Custodial Receipts, Series 2017-XL0046 evidencing beneficial ownership of New Orleans Aviation Board, General Airport Revenue Bonds (North Terminal Project) Series 2017B (AMT) (the Bonds). The rating is based upon joint default analysis (JDA), which reflects Moody's approach to rating jointly supported transactions.

    • CoCo Bond Investors Face a Covid-19 Reckoning
      Bloomberg

      CoCo Bond Investors Face a Covid-19 Reckoning

      (Bloomberg Opinion) -- The Covid-19 pandemic is even starting to affect the highly specialized world of bank capital.Lloyds Banking Group Plc, a large British lender, has just become the third European bank this year to do what was once unthinkable and decline to redeem an outstanding “CoCo” bond at its first call date. This form of hybrid debt — also known as additional tier 1 (or AT1) regulatory capital — is especially risky because the investor bears the losses if the bank fails, and it usually pays a generous interest rate.Because of their special status, there had always been a tacit understanding — though not a legal obligation — that investors would be able to cash in the bonds at the first redemption date, if they so chose, at least with European CoCos. But that tradition looks to be well and truly over among the stronger banks.Lloyds cited “extraordinary market challenges presented by Covid-19” as the reason to extend its own AT1s. With its dividend payments to equity holders suspended currently at the behest of the U.K. financial regulator, because of the coronavirus crisis, it would have looked rum indeed if the bank had cut its equity capital for the benefit of a small group of bondholders. This select bunch ought to have known the risk.The financial savings for Lloyds are just as relevant. By retaining the 6.375% 750 million-euro ($824 million) CoCo, it will switch to paying a floating coupon just above 5%. If it had redeemed the AT1 and issued a replacement bond, it would have had to offer a higher coupon to reflect the current market, probably one above 7%.Lloyds has a solid Tier 1 capital base of 16.9%, so in normal times it would have been expected to keep its bond investors happy. But regulatory pressure and the increase in yields on risky debt during the current crisis has forced even the better capitalized banks to prioritize their financing costs.Spain’s Banco Santander SA set the precedent last year of a blue-chip lender not redeeming its AT1 debt out of pure economic self-interest. That’s standard practice in the U.S. market, but Santander’s action caused a storm here in Europe. Germany’s Deutsche Bank AG and Aareal Bank AG have also skipped calls this year.This Americanization of the European CoCo market looks like a trend. ABN Amro Bank NV and Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc both have AT1 bonds with calls due this summer, and Barclays Plc is due later in the year. They may follow the Lloyds example and retain cheap AT1 capital raised at lower yields.Banks have benefited hugely from AT1 issues as regulators count it as permanent equity (although it was almost always redeemed), meaning it counts toward capital buffers. And the cost is much lower for the issuer than true perpetual debt. Investors have been happy to play along as the yields far exceed those on bank debt with legally enforceable redemption dates.The Lloyds move is a wake-up call for AT1 investors.While the bigger banks’ CoCo bonds will probably still be popular, even if the call date is no longer guaranteed implicitly, the change might do more damage to weaker lenders. If investors no longer feel confident that their money will automatically be returned at the first redemption date, they’ll demand a higher return for the risk.The CoCo market only reopened tentatively this month with a new Bank of Ireland Group Plc deal. The Irish lender did what Lloyds refused to do and redeemed its existing AT1 and reissued at a higher cost. At least it managed to keep its investors happy and on board.This new separation between large stable banks being able to act according to their own economic advantage, while smaller rivals have to offer chunkier premiums, is a worry for the health of the financial system. It ought to be an urgent matter for consideration by European regulators. Forcing the strong banks to keep capital has consequences for their less illustrious peers.  This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.Marcus Ashworth is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering European markets. He spent three decades in the banking industry, most recently as chief markets strategist at Haitong Securities in London.For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com/opinionSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2020 Bloomberg L.P.

    • Moody's

      IDAHO H&FA - Commercial Paper Program -- Moody's reviews Idaho Housing and Finance Association's Commercial Paper Notes

      Moody's Investors Service, at the Idaho Housing and Finance Association's ("IHFA") request, has reviewed the documents submitted to us in connection with an amendment to its Taxable Commercial Paper Program, General Obligation Notes, Bank Secured Series (the "Secured CP Notes"). IHFA is temporarily expanding the Barclays Bank PLC's liquidity facility supporting the Secured CP Notes to $237,495,207 from $187,945,207, inclusive of accrued interest.

    • Moody's

      Fingal Securities RMBS DAC -- Moody's assigns definitive ratings to Notes issued by Fingal Securities RMBS DAC

      Moody's has not rated the EUR 123.14M Class Z Residential Mortgage Backed Fixed Rate Notes due July 2055, the EUR 10.11M Class R Residential Mortgage Backed Fixed Rate Notes due July 2055, the EUR 0.1M Class X1 Notes due July 2055 and the EUR 2.0M Class X2 Notes due July 2055. The expected portfolio loss of 5.5% and the MILAN CE of 19.0%, serve as input parameters for Moody's cash flow model and tranching model, which is based on a probabilistic lognormal distribution.

    • Reuters

      Banks pursue Luckin Coffee chairman's assets after loan default

      The banks that lent $518 million to Luckin Coffee Chairman Charles Zhengyao Lu have started court proceedings to liquidate his private company, a government gazette for the British Virgin Islands showed. The notice, published on Thursday and reproduced in Hong Kong media on Friday, names Credit Suisse as the security agent, which means it will act on behalf of the banks behind the loan. Credit Suisse has proposed Grant Thornton be appointed as liquidators of Haode Investments Co., Mr Lu's private company, which is registered in the Virgin Islands.

    • Reuters

      British finance workers prepare for return to office of the future

      Limits on elevators, thermal imaging and temperature checks will greet a first wave of traders and bankers in Britain preparing to return to offices under new norms to tackle the coronavirus. Britain's financial sector is working to bring staff back to city-centre workplaces, which were hastily evacuated as the government imposed a lockdown, leaving the normally humming Canary Wharf and City of London financial districts deserted. Most financial firms have kept small teams in offices through the pandemic, and are now preparing for up to 10% of their staff to return over the next few months, pending government approval, sources familiar with the plans said.

    • Reuters

      INSIGHT-Britons spurned by banks caught in a coronavirus credit crunch

      When a payroll glitch left Natalie Gallagher so short of cash this month she couldn't afford her bus fare to work, she turned to her usual lender Amigo for an emergency top-up loan. Like many of the lenders that thousands of higher-risk borrowers in Britain depend on, Amigo had tightened its criteria for handing out cash in the wake of the coronavirus. "Amigo was my only real option."

    • BlackRock Made Emerging Markets. So It Can Break Them
      Bloomberg

      BlackRock Made Emerging Markets. So It Can Break Them

      (Bloomberg Opinion) -- Not too long ago, BlackRock Inc. was super bullish on the prospect of exchange-traded bond funds. While it took 17 years for these passive vehicles to reach $1 trillion in assets under management, doubling that would take a fraction of the time, the investment manager predicted. These funds have become “disruptors” of the once opaque and difficult-to-access global bond market, it said. Passive funds have indeed become popular. More than 60% of institutional investors used debt ETFs last year, up from 20% in 2017. Meanwhile, emerging market bond ETFs represent the fastest growing segment, rising at an annualized rate of 38% over the last decade, to $82 billion in assets under management.  As much as BlackRock’s marketing executives may tout “disruption,” instability is one thing developing markets can do without — especially now that they’re issuing debt left and right. Investors are understandably starting to ask who will pay when things go pear-shaped. If they bail, the passive funds they’ve gobbled up could well kill emerging-market investing. Take a look at BlackRock’s $13 billion iShares J.P. Morgan USD Emerging Markets Bond ETF. It’s well-liked by investors because it tracks sovereign dollar issues, which takes the problem of currency volatility off the table. But its exposure doesn't accurately reflect the gross domestic product of its constituents. China, for instance, has a weighting of just 3.8%, making it the eighth-largest component of the ETF. Meanwhile, Argentina, Turkey, South Africa, Egypt and Colombia — the new Fragile Five according to Bloomberg Intelligence — together have a 14% weight, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Add the next five in line, and about 35% of your ETF’s holdings are vested with the most vulnerable nations.(1) BlackRock is simply tracking the widely followed J.P. Morgan index, which is by no means the only one with a heavy tilt toward troubled countries. The Bloomberg Barclays EM USD Aggregate Sovereign Index, for instance, also has more than a third of its weight behind the Fragile 10. Since the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., quantitative easing has driven billions of dollars of capital into emerging markets. With rates near zero in the developed world, investors have eagerly  taken on extra risk in the pursuit of yield. As a result, nations with current account and fiscal deficits, such as Indonesia, ended up issuing plenty of dollar bonds. Meanwhile, healthier ones, like export-oriented China and South Korea, developed their domestic government bond markets instead. After all, it’s cheaper to raise money in your own currency. Beijing only raises dollar bonds when it feels like showing off its prime rating abroad.Now, the virus is raising uncomfortable questions. Economies big and small are on lockdown, facing large shortfalls in government revenues and big fiscal spending plans. How will the most vulnerable ones meet their debt obligations?In mid-April, the Group of 20 agreed to halt repayments for the poorest countries. That won’t be enough. African economies, for instance, have the largest external funding gap among the low-income group analyzed by Moody’s Investors Service Inc. That amounts to around $40 billion to $50 billion this year, or about 4% to 5% of their combined GDP. The G-20 debt relief is worth only $10 billion.If, say, a few African countries lit up the global news headlines by walking a tad too close to default, would ETF investors sell out of their positions altogether? It wouldn’t be irrational. Thanks to passive funds’ transparency, we know at least one-third of our positions are vested with some of the most fragile emerging economies.BlackRock created retail products from an asset class once preserved for professionals. This great democratization experiment is a double-edged sword. Sure, it helps struggling nations raise money. But in times of distress, contagion becomes the word. Stock pickers — value investors, in particular — have long argued ETFs distort equity markets. That assessment isn’t far off for fixed income, either.(1) Bloomberg Intelligence has assigned a vulnerability rating based on current account balance, short-term external debt, reserve coverage, government effectiveness and deviation from inflation targets.This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.Shuli Ren is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering Asian markets. She previously wrote on markets for Barron's, following a career as an investment banker, and is a CFA charterholder.For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com/opinionSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2020 Bloomberg L.P.

    • Band of England Keeps Options on Negative Rates, Bailey Says
      Bloomberg

      Band of England Keeps Options on Negative Rates, Bailey Says

      (Bloomberg) -- The Bank of England is studying how low U.K. interest rates can be cut amid the coronavirus crisis and isn’t excluding the idea of taking borrowing costs below zero, according to Governor Andrew Bailey.“Given what we’ve done in past few weeks, it should come as no surprise to learn that of course, we’re keeping the tools under active review in the current situation,” Bailey told lawmakers on Wednesday when asked about negative rates. “We do not rule things out as a matter of principle. That would be a foolish thing to do. That doesn’t mean we rule things in either.”The comments come amid a growing debate about the possibility of negative interest rates in the U.K., which intensified Wednesday after a report showed inflation slowed to the lowest level since 2016 and the nation sold debt with a sub-zero yield for the first time. Bailey said his position on going below zero had changed since entering the pandemic, but the policy had received “pretty mixed reviews” elsewhere.While officials have repeatedly emphasized such a move isn’t imminent, and would be tricky to implement in the U.K., they’ve also stressed nothing is off the table in their efforts to fight the impact of coronavirus. The fallout could push the economy into the deepest recession in three centuries.Interest-rate swaps, which are used to gauge where the benchmark may be, are just below 0% for December, and get progressively lower in 2021.Still, a full 10 basis-point cut below zero is yet to be fully priced in. That means that rather than outright bets on a negative rate, those moves might represent traders hedging against the prospect of a worsening economic situation making easier policy more likely.“In investors’ minds even a small probability of negative interest rates in the dollar and pound is a big change”, said Antoine Bouvet, rates strategist at ING Groep NV. “That the possibility remains open, even if small, and might cause some investors to pre-hedge.”Read More:U.K. Inflation Rate Drops Below 1% Amid Negative Rate Debate Negative Interest Rates Are Last on BOE List, Barclays SaysU.K.’s First Negative-Yielding Bond Sale Fuels Debate Over RatesBailey said the BOE was keen to observe the impact of its previous U.K. rate cuts, bearing in mind arguments that they become less effective the closer to zero they are. It’s also examining the experience of other central banks that have cut below zero, he said, adding the financial system in an economy is an important factor.The governor has previously expressed a stronger opposition than other policy makers to the tool, saying they would present a communications challenge and prove difficult for banks. Others have been more sanguine, with Silvana Tenreyro saying they’ve had a positive effect elsewhere and Chief Economist Andy Haldane noting they were something officials were examining among other unconventional tools.Cutting interest rates below zero is the last policy option that BOE officials would currently choose to further stimulate the economy, according to Barclays, which sees more asset purchases as the most likely next step.What Our Economists Say:“Would negative rates really be a game changer if the economy needed a lift? Probably not. The reality is the BOE is at the limits of its powers to boost spending. If demand did need a lift further down the line, we think a more potent policy mix would be for the BOE to continue with QE while fiscal policy does the heavy lifting.”\-- Dan Hanson, U.K. economistAnother side effect would be to further weaken an already beleaguered pound, making imports more expensive. While exports would typically get a boost, the impact of the pandemic on trade means that’s less likely this time.“I can’t think of an economy where negative rates are a worse idea than the U.K.,” wrote Kit Juckes, a strategist at Societe Generale. “How on earth does it make sense to even consider adding negative rates to the mix?”(Adds further comments from Bailey in third paragraph)For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2020 Bloomberg L.P.

    • Lira-Averse Banks Raise Concern in Turkey of Another Dollar Rush
      Bloomberg

      Lira-Averse Banks Raise Concern in Turkey of Another Dollar Rush

      (Bloomberg) -- Turkey’s push for faster credit growth is inadvertently eroding returns on lira savings, a consequence of pro-growth policies that officials fear might fuel demand for dollars.The government last month set ambitious targets for banks to boost lending and mitigate the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic.But instead of rolling out new loans, some private lenders began aggressive cuts to interest rates on deposits after the banking regulator said they must raise a newly defined asset ratio to above 100%. Policy makers are now concerned lower rates might result in a rush for more dollars and create another source of imbalance as they try to stimulate the $750 billion economy, according to officials with direct knowledge of the matter.“Lira deposit rates follow policy rates very closely,” Barclays Plc economist Ercan Erguzel said in an emailed note. “Bigger cuts on top of current levels, without a further drop in inflation expectations and/or actual inflation, would likely affect the dollarization trend, which has been stable for a while.”Sudden changes in saving patterns can act as a destabilizer for emerging economies such as Turkey, where more than half the savings in the banking sector is already denominated in foreign currencies. Additional demand for foreign exchange could present a particular challenge at a time of declining reserves, which is putting pressure on the currency and amplifying the burden on companies holding foreign debt.Central bank data on deposits underscore officials’ growing concern. Following the new regulation, the average rate lenders offer for lira accounts dropped to 8.4%, the lowest level since November 2013, according to most recent data.The drop was driven by private lenders, where lira deposits fell 3.4% within the first 3 weeks of the new asset-ratio requirement. State banks saw their local-currency deposits rise 7.9% during the same period as they chased credit growth more aggressively.Deposit rates well below consumer inflation are only one factor among many that determine how much foreign exchange Turks might want to hold. But lower rates for a sustained period might eventually force savers to buy more dollars, according to the officials, who asked for anonymity to discuss policy makers’ concerns.Officials at the regulator and the treasury declined to comment.President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Treasury and Finance Minister Berat Albayrak have repeatedly slammed private banks for failing to support companies even before the coronavirus outbreak paralyzed economic activity. With the economy likely falling into a recession, the focus remains on credit even at the risk of growing vulnerabilities elsewhere.(Updates with economist comment in fourth paragraph)For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2020 Bloomberg L.P.

    • Bloomberg

      JPMorgan Hires Barclays’ Credit Trader Schaefer

      (Bloomberg) -- JPMorgan Chase & Co. has hired Barclays Plc credit derivatives trader Benjamin Schaefer, according to people familiar with the matter.Schaefer will join the U.S. bank in London before later relocating to New York, said the people, who asked not to be named discussing personnel moves. At Barclays, he also held roles on both sides of the Atlantic, including head of the high-grade credit-default swaps team, the people said.A spokeswoman for Barclays and a JPMorgan spokesman declined to comment on the hire. Schaefer also declined to comment.He joins following an eventful period for JPMorgan’s credit team. Earlier this year, the bank punished more than a dozen traders for using WhatsApp at work, firing one and cutting bonus payments for the rest. Edward Koo, who was known as one of the bank’s main traders of credit-default swaps tied to individual companies, was dismissed after JPMorgan concluded he broke company rules by creating a WhatsApp group and using it to discuss market chatter with colleagues.Credit swap indexes have been particularly volatile in recent months as the measures taken to stem the coronavirus sent shockwaves through credit markets, causing a gauge of U.S. corporate credit risk to surge by the most since Lehman Brothers collapsed. The cost of credit insurance has declined in recent weeks but remains elevated compared to pre-pandemic levels.(Updates with credit trader departure in fourth paragraph)For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2020 Bloomberg L.P.

    • Goldman Sounds the Death Knell for High-Yield Savings Accounts
      Bloomberg

      Goldman Sounds the Death Knell for High-Yield Savings Accounts

      (Bloomberg Opinion) -- Goodbye, high-yield savings accounts. We hardly knew you.For years, the oxymoronic products were a resounding success for both consumers and financial institutions alike. After getting almost zero interest from big U.S. banks, individuals who parked their excess cash with the likes of Ally Financial Inc., Barclays Plc, Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s consumer bank, Marcus, or HSBC Holdings Plc’s HSBC Direct were suddenly bringing in a comparatively bountiful 2% or more around this time last year. At that point, the Federal Reserve had raised its short-term interest rate for what would be the final time this cycle in December 2018. The rest is history. First, the Fed felt compelled to lower interest rates three times from July through October to offset the economic impacts from the Trump administration’s trade wars. That, as I noted in an October column, brought prevailing high-yield savings rates dangerously close to the fed funds rate. And yet, in early 2020, Marcus users could still lock in that 2% magic number by opting for a no-penalty certificate of deposit.Then the coronavirus happened. This chart says it all: As it’s plain to see, there’s now a chasm between the fed funds rate and the going rates on some top high-yield savings accounts. The banks have so far moved lower gradually, likely to avoid sticker shock that would cause their customers to take their deposits elsewhere. But even with online banking’s cost-saving advantages over more typical brick-and-mortar institutions, they can’t defy gravity forever. Eventually, rates will have to head closer to the zero lower bound. These savings accounts will still hang around but will hardly seem to fit the moniker of “high yield.”Marcus announced the cut to its savings rate on May 8 with this message:“Effective today, the rate on our Marcus high-yield Online Savings Account has been adjusted down to 1.30% from 1.55% APY. We understand that this isn’t welcome news. During this unprecedented time, please know that the rate on our Marcus Online Savings Account remains highly competitive with an APY that’s still 4X the national average. You can rest assured that we continue our commitment to providing value and helping your money grow.”“For a guaranteed return, consider adding a fixed-rate No-Penalty CD. You’ll earn a high-yield rate with the flexibility to withdraw you balance beginning 7 days after funding. Our 7-month No-Penalty CD currently earns 1.55%.”The marketing is top-notch. First, it’s transparent about being bad news, but then quickly pivots to play up that Marcus still provides comparatively more interest than accounts at Bank of America Corp., Citigroup Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. The announcement also wastes no time suggesting a no-penalty CD to make up for the lost interest (and, in a benefit to Goldman, create a “stickier” deposit). Marcus is a relatively new venture for Goldman, and it seems reasonable to assume the investment bank will operate it with Chief Executive Officer David Solomon’s “evolutionary path” in mind. Goldman is looking to diversify away from historically volatile trading revenue, much like its Wall Street rival Morgan Stanley. If it means running Marcus with tight margins to keep customers in the fold, so be it.A bank like Ally, on the other hand, may have less flexibility. Heading into this year, it was fresh off of an upgrade by S&P Global Ratings to BBB-, one step above junk. That upswing didn’t last long; it was one of 13 banks that S&P put on negative outlook earlier this month. Analysts said it “could be more sensitive to the economic fallout from the Covid-19 pandemic than the average U.S. bank. We attribute this sensitivity to Ally's sizable concentration in auto lending that may face heightened risk of financial distress in the current economic environment.” Also a risk: “Ultra-low interest rates will weigh on net interest income,” which accounts for more than 70% of Ally’s net revenue.Ally, for its part, also knows how to sell itself. “People don’t want to hear messages that are depressing and that add to their anxiety,” Andrea Brimmer, chief marketing officer at Ally, told the Financial Brand in an article published last week. “They want to hear optimism and they want to hear about purposeful ideas that make them feel like the world is going to kind of get back to normal.” The theme of a campaign promoting its savings options: “Is your money not sure what to do with itself?”Whether Ally, Barclays, Marcus or HSBC are the answer to that is an open question. As it stands, these interest rates barely cover the market-implied inflation rate over the next 10 years. That’s somewhat by design, of course — the Fed cuts rates in part to encourage borrowing and purchases of riskier assets, both of which boost the economy more than parking cash in a high-yield savings account. Stocks, however, seem increasingly detached from the current economic reality. In that sense, Ally’s focus on being unsure might resonate with individual investors.Future interest rates on high-yield savings accounts are on equally shaky ground. While there’s not much in the way of precedent, it’s safe to say they’ll continue to offer more than the rock-bottom rates on money-market funds. Banks will probably do whatever they can to delay going below 1%, a round number that could be the last straw for some individuals. Other than those parameters, though, anything is possible; such is life at the zero lower bound.This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.Brian Chappatta is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering debt markets. He previously covered bonds for Bloomberg News. He is also a CFA charterholder.For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com/opinionSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2020 Bloomberg L.P.

    • Investors Don’t Share Trump’s Scorn for Blue States
      Bloomberg

      Investors Don’t Share Trump’s Scorn for Blue States

      (Bloomberg Opinion) -- President Donald Trump seems to think that states led by Democratic governments are profligate and don’t deserve federal coronavirus relief aid. “I don't think the Republicans want to be in a position where they bail out states that are, that have been mismanaged over a long period of time,” he told the New York Post earlier this month. The worst offenders, he said, mentioning Illinois, New York and  California, are debt-burdened places “run by Democrats in every case.” Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has said much the same thing.Actually, no. Governors of both parties have been quick to push back, and commentators pointed out that historically Republican-dominated states like McConnell’s Kentucky tend to receive more from the federal government than they contribute to the national coffers, while states where Democrats usually prevail suffer the reverse fate.When it comes to debt performance, one way to measure fiscal responsibility, blue Democratic states have done better than Republican red ones in the municipal bond market, where their debt was coveted. That’s because they adopted unpopular policies such as raising taxes to shore up underfunded pensions and other burdensome imbalances accumulated after the 2008 financial crisis.Government fiscal policies also helped blue states contribute more to U.S. growth and prosperity than red ones before the pandemic struck, measured by their gross domestic product, personal income, tax revenue, total employment, job growth and labor participation rate.Of the 30 states that voted for Trump in 2016, eight now have Democratic governors; four of the 20 states that went for Hillary Clinton are led by Republicans. But the 2016 presidential balloting generally reflects the states’ partisan leanings, with a smattering of exceptions.The Trump-voting states saw their output grow by a collective $1.775 trillion in the previous five years, to $10.5 trillion at the end of 2019. That’s less than the $2.092 trillion growth in the less numerous Clinton states, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The more numerous red states, led by Florida and Texas with a combined GDP of $567 billion, generated $317 billion less to the American economy than blue states, led by California and New York with a comparable GDP of $1.046 trillion.Each blue state added 246,000 new jobs on average during the past five years; their red counterparts added 192,000. Employment in blue states increased 6.7% versus 5.4% for red states. Labor participation rose 0.34 percentage points for the blue states and declined 0.07 percentage points for red states. Personal income surged 22.1% for the blue states against 18.8% for the red states. While tax revenue increased 22.2% on average for each blue state, it advanced 19.9% for each red state, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.When he was elected to the third of his four terms as California governor in 2011, Jerry Brown simultaneously reduced spending and raised taxes to the extent that his state perennially outperformed every country and state in the credit default swap market, which measures a borrower's creditworthiness. The largest state's 4.7% increase in GDP last year was more than the 2.3% gain for the U.S. and enabled the state's jobless rate to decline to 3.9%, the lowest on record since such data was first compiled in 1976.As Rhode Island state treasurer and then governor, Gina Raimondo helped transform a small state with the nation’s most unemployment in 2011 by tackling the worst unfunded pension liability in the U.S. She also took the political risk of raising taxes on truckers. When she became governor in 2015, Rhode Island ranked in the lower half of the U.S. in economic health, according to the Bloomberg Economic Evaluation of the States Index, which tracks employment, tax revenue, personal income and other measures. Before her first term ended, Rhode Island climbed to above average and the state's unemployment rate declined to 3.4%, the lowest in 31 years.Investor confidence in these and other blue states is reflected in the change in yield, or how much creditors charge each state during the past five years. California, New York and Illinois saw their borrowing costs decline 55 basis points, 48 basis points and 36 basis points, respectively, compared to declines of 33 basis points for Texas and 21 basis points for Florida, according to Bloomberg Barclays indexes.Maybe Trump and McConnell could learn something about state governments by watching where creditors and investors are putting their money.This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.Matthew A. Winkler is Co-founder of Bloomberg News (1990) and Editor-in-Chief Emeritus; Bloomberg Opinion Columnist since 2015; Co-founder of Bloomberg Business Journalism Diversity Program in 2017. During his 25 years as Editor-in-Chief, Bloomberg News was a three-time finalist and winner of the Pulitzer Prize for Explanatory Reporting and received numerous George Polk, Gerald Loeb, Overseas Press Club and Society of Professional Journalists and Editors (Sabew) awards.For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com/opinionSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2020 Bloomberg L.P.

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