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BioCryst Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (BCRX)

NasdaqGS - NasdaqGS Real Time Price. Currency in USD
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14.33+0.08 (+0.56%)
At close: 04:00PM EDT
14.35 +0.02 (+0.14%)
After hours: 07:58PM EDT
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  • s
    sarath
    Who will make the first offer:
    Amgen, Biogen, Pfizer, Roche, Novartis, Glaxo, BMS, Merck, Sanofi, Abbvie, Takeda?
  • H
    Horkos
    34 million people in Saudi Arabia so potentially hundreds of patients needing treatment. Not huge but not nothing.
  • M
    Mike
    Hitting $20 this week… somebody may be interested…
  • a
    anonymousrex
    When you look at the chart, you see the stock is back to almost exactly where it was 1 year ago. There is a big difference, though, in the overall condition of the company and where the stock should be heading. A year ago there was a lot of anxiety on overall expenses, cash burn, and revenue trajectory. The 9930 trial program had not begun yet. Now, the company has $500 million in cash available, expenses are down(at least temporarily--ands even lowered by management in the ER), revenue trajectory is consistently higher with all revenue targets reiterated, and the 9930 program is on much stronger footing. due to all of the uncertainties a year ago the stock had a few months where the stock dropped from this level. That should not occur this year due to all of the positive news and added confidence clarified and justified by management. I would expect the stock to move similarly to the way it did leading up to the high in February, although in an expanded fashion from here. I do not expect there to be much selling by longs, but with the institutional holdings and short position at their historical highs there is a lot of potential upside pressure.
  • a
    anonymousrex
    Here is some food for thought over the weekend----The company stated in the ER that operating expenses would be reduced to $390-$400 million for 2022. Expenses were $120 million in the last quarter and about $110 million in the previous quarter. That is $230 million of the total. That leaves roughly $160-$170 million for the last 2 quarters of the year. The company also stated that revenue would be $255-$265 million for the year. The first 2 quarters totaled $110 million, leaving $145-$155 million to come. Those expense vs. revenue numbers are getting pretty close, aren't they? Now, if expenses in the 4th quarter are $85 million(taking half of the higher $170 million number) and revenue for the last 2 quarters comes in at $73 and $82 million for the $155 million total(allowing 12-13% growth per quarter), that is virtually break-even in the 4th quarter of THIS YEAR! It will be very close. Just a few million either way will make a difference. Anyone who is concerned about cash position or cash burn---you should not be. And anyone who is short----should DEFINITELY be worried that this stock is getting set to take off----and is on the verge of profitability----very, very unusual for a biotech company on it's own with a drug that has been on the market for less than 3 years!
  • J
    Joseph
    Keep in mind that the FDA restarted the 9930 trials 3 months ahead of schedule. An indication of their belief that the few problems seen at high dose will not be seen at the already proven 400 mg dose.
  • s
    sarath
    Potential BCRX Buyout

    This week alone two deals in the rare disease space. This space is hot now.

    Pfizer buying GBT for $5bn
    AMGN buying CCXI for $4bn

    BCRX MC only $2.5bn. Orladayo alone worth $4bn (4X sales) in MC.
    BCRX should be on the radar of most big pharma--Pfizer, AMGN, Biogen, BMY, Novartis, Roche Glaxo, Takeda and more..
    Pfizer has extra $25bn in cash this year from Covid drugs. They have to spend.
    In a deal, BCRX should be worth minimum $25-30.
  • M
    Mr Simpson
    Top Q2 Blocks added by 🐳🐳🐳 Baker Bros holds all 12.7M shares. ✅
    Just look at the massive adding of many whales...
    VANGUARD GROUP INC 13,810,173 $146,112,000 0.00 0.01 1613 +603,133 (Q2)
    AVORO CAPITAL ADVISORS LLC 6,500,000 $68,770,000 1.36 0.56 17 +4,625,000 (Q2)
    PICTET ASSET MANAGEMENT SA 6,046,961 $63,977,000 0.09 0.09246 +940,058 (Q2)
    FISHER ASSET MANAGEMENT, LLC 5,216,829 $55,194,000 0.04 0.04213 +1,230,006 (Q2)
    VICTORY CAPITAL MANAGEMENT INC 4,564,930 $48,297,000 0.06 0.06485 +1,011,409 (Q2)
    MORGAN STANLEY 4,375,569 $46,294,000 0.01 0.00 1428 +3,665,522 (Q2)
    FAIRMOUNT FUNDS MANAGEMENT LLC 3,343,107 $35,370,000 8.10 3 +3,343,107(Q2)
    ASSENAGON ASSET MANAGEMENT S.A. 3,177,871 $33,622,000 0.12 0.00 +3,107,027 (Q2)
    PFM HEALTH SCIENCES, LP 2,162,411 $22,878,000 0.87 44 +2,162,411 (Q2)
    MILLENNIUM MANAGEMENT LLC 1,948,595 $20,616,000 0.01 0.00 +1,893,640 (Q2)
    FIRST MANHATTAN COMPANY 1,805,072 $19,097,000 0.08 +1,805,072 (Q2)
    ROCK SPRINGS CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LP 1,461,091 $15,458,000 0.45 +1,461,091 (Q2)

    https://whalewisdom.com/stock/bcrx
    View 13F filing holders of BioCryst Pharmaceutical Inc.. 13F filings are submitted quarterly to the SEC by hedge funds and other investment managers
    View 13F filing holders of BioCryst Pharmaceutical Inc.. 13F filings are submitted quarterly to the SEC by hedge funds and other investment managers
    whalewisdom.com
  • a
    anonymousrex
    Buy TWLO. Do your own DD, but I have made many trades in this stock, and it has bounced from this level every time. If it's not for you, then don't. But it has been fairly reliable as far as this being at or near the bottom.
  • a
    anonymousrex
    In response to Ismael's question regarding a short squeeze---you can never predict how high a stock price may go if there is a short squeeze. And there may not be one. But, BCRX has all of the ingredients necessary to cause one to develop. A rising stock price, positive news and developments, increasing volume, and a short float of 17% which is considerable. Regardless of whether one develops or not, I see the stock price following the same path as it did in the spring prior to the unexpected pause announcement. This time, though, I believe the stock will cross the $20 mark early in 2023 leading up to, or just after the first ER next year. The company, and the 9930 trials are on much firmer footing with the new protocols and once we find out that creatinine levels are not rising and the trials are full steam ahead, the stock could be double where it is now.
  • M
    Mike
    Last week I said $15 in a month, just got it in 4 days
    $19 in 4 weeks
    $42 in 6 months
  • B
    Beancounter
    Top 5 Institutional holders own 30% of the company and top 10 own 42%. They have waited this out. Retail can trade back and forth all day everyday; Institutions are holding strong.
  • g
    glenn
    My theory on why we are up: Prior to the bad news BCRX was surging. Could it be that something
    was planning a BO and the bad news quashed it? Now, with the good news the stock is surging again
    even with analyst downgrades? Why would that be? Maybe whatever caused the surge prior to bad
    news is renewing whatever that was. "If" a BO was being planned maybe that is now back on the
    table. One thing is certain, the higher this goes the more pressure there will be on the shorts to
    cover not to mention more investors will pile on if they believe a BO were imminent.
  • r
    rbf8493
    Wow! All trials resumed. Earnings and revenue beat handily. Upped guidance for sales of Orladeylo.
    Back to $19!
  • a
    anonymousrex
    Short interest has dropped by around 2 million shares. This was likely due to the great earnings report and forecast as well as the good news about the 9930 program with all trials resuming along with added safety measures to increase the likelihood of completion. That still leaves nearly 30 MILLION shares short which is a very big nut and about 9-10 days to cover at average volume. This company and the stock are on much stronger footing than when the trials were paused and the stock dropped. Inflation is waning, the economy is very strong with full employment, the situation in Ukraine is not as unstable as it was in the spring, and the ER really could not have been more positive. The 9930 issues were certainly a setback, but it will turn out to be beneficial that the company was able to determine there was a problem with the design of the trials and rectify that earlier in the process than if the trials had been much further along. The stock has rebounded into the mid $15's and some of that was short-covering. A real flight out could occur at any time and you never know what may spark that.
  • M
    Mike
    $15 in a month!!
  • H
    Horkos
    Upgrades over the last 24 hours. Hoping a lot of these get revised

    HC Wainright reiterated $30
    Oppenheimer downgraded to perform
    Barclays maintained and raised to $14 from $12
    Everscore isi downgraded to in line
    Needham maintained a hold rating
    JMP Securities reiterated by at $24
  • P
    PJ
    Cover, Frank, Cover! Before it's too late. Buyout rumor is swirling, at least according to my financial contacts.
  • a
    anonymousrex
    Just went over the CC transcript and pulled this remark out from Jon Stonehoouse---"Why is this important? Having a meaningful product in the market growing quarter-after-quarter with very long IP creates an amazing base to build on. In this challenging financial environment having significant and steady revenue growth is rare and critically important to creating greater value." I LIKE that sentiment and have always stated the significance of the growing steady revenue from Orladeyo providing the company with a solid base of capital to work with.
    Also---in just 2 years Orladeyo has captured 12% of the overall HAE prophy market. That is remarkable. Not only that, but many of the leading Orladeyo prescribers said they are prescribing Orladeyo for 80% of their NEW patients. The company stated that they only need to get to 25-30% market share to hit $800 MILLION in the US. If Orladeyo becomes the leading medication for new HAE patients that goal could be achieved fairly quickly.
    Once the 9930 trials resume with new patients being enrolled, the company also stated that they should be able to tell if the new protocols are working or not. Just a few keys from the CC, which was another very optimistic, STRONGLY positive call.
  • a
    anonymousrex
    Last post for today----less than 6 months ago the stock hit $19.99. At that time management had recently come out with the annual Orladeyo forecast of $250 million(now to be exceeded by anywhere from $5-$15 million---and I believe that is conservative), and the $1 BILLION peak sales number which has been reiterated many times with confidence. Quarterly sales of Orladeyo then were $45 million, now up to $65 million(nearly a 50% increase in 2 qaurters). The 9930 trials had only been active for a few months before being paused 2 months later. Then the stock dropped like a rock. Now EVERYTHING is back on track. Revenue is predicted to be HIGHER than forecast when the stock peaked. Expenses are predicted to be considerably lower than predicted. ALL 9930 trials are resumed with safeguards in place and a lower dosage(which was proven effective in earlier trials) to ensure these trials reach completion, and 9250 is moving forward for a condition that currently has no approved treatment options. Oh----and the short position is about as high as it's ever been as well as institutional ownership being at it's highest. If you see any negatives here at all, you are in the wrong stock. There IS the possibility that something arises in the 9930 trials again, but I believe that likelihood is much lower, even minimal, now that the trials have been revised---with consultation with the FDA. 4th quarter sales will be at least $80 million, and could be as high as $90 million(I believe). That would put the company very close to break even with expenses now expected to be just $390-$400 million for the year. I am not concerned about the stock dropping short term and will take the opportunity to add now that we have heard everything we were hoping for. Have a great weekend everyone.
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