X axis : Stocks Price Correlation Coefficient Y axis : Quantity of stocks May-2016 1,000 Day Parameter 2,830 NASDAQ Stocks Price Analysis This stock mode of correlation coefficient is 0.2 In other words, the correlation coefficient of the other stock
Held since Feb 19, 2016--- Sold today at 27.47 ave. price. LT cap gain A few of you have followed my posts over the past years. You can see more of the discussion 7 threads below this one under microcapguru's post. As you will read, I have followed this stock for over 15 years and was out for many years, only to see a rare opportunity to jump in on Feb 19th of 2016 at $13.50 I would have sold weeks ago, at easily over 30 but was hanging on to get the sale as a long term capital gain. However my first possible sale day was Tuesday of this week. Unfortunately the stock has taken serious drop of over 10%. These past couple days I was hoping for a bounce back, but have decided to take a wonderful gain instead of facing a potential loss of my great gain...drop by drop. So, to recap.. I purchased Feb. 19, 2016, at $13.50.... was given a wonderful ride up, and have now exited at a average price of $27.47, for a 103% long term capital gain. If only the price could have held for 1 extra week, but I have to be happy with the investment. I can't wait and watch it possibly drop any further... though I really have no idea what will happen in the next few weeks. It could go back up over 30, but it may well drop under 25.
I will keep you apprised of my next re-entry into the stock, as I will continue to follow it. I would note however that my last waiting period to re-enter was over 10 years.
By the way, in that below thread by Microcapguru, I also mentioned that I thought Sears SHLD was destined to drop lower and lower, nearly guaranteed. At the time of that post, it was $12.12. Today it is $7.74 (-36%)... and I am convinced it will drop much lower over the next 12 to 24 months. The company is doomed and there will be no savior in the form of a buyout. Keep a eye on it.
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A truly strange price..
As a former long in BELFB shares, I confess to being utterly mystified by the current price. I will offer two comments of varying length, but as always, you have to make up your own mind. Investing is hard.
1) Two years ago, the company radically altered its profile and balance sheet by taking on a large amount of debt to make two substantial acquisitions. I supported these in hopes that the larger footprint and economies of scale would be dramatically accretive to the earnings power of the company. As we know,the businesses they bought rapidly deteriorated to the point that about half of the value was written off after 18 months. Of course, the debt still remains.
And yet, the market is claiming that the firm is worth about 25% MORE than before the deals. This makes no sense to me on any level.
2) Because of the eventual intangible asset writedown, the company was required by its auditors to go through a very detailed valuation exercise in order to determine the amount of the writedown. If you look in the 10-Q filed with the SEC, the footnotes contain a great deal of information about the parameters used during this exercise. Applying this information to the company's actual results, I keep coming up with a value per share of about $15-17. I suppose I could be wrong, but I doubt by 100%.
There has been a huge amount of money flowing into microcap index funds, and I suppose that could continue to buoy the shares. I just prefer to focus on fundamentals and I have great disdain for momentum and trend following strategies.
I am not a short seller, just a confused little investor.
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