Braemar Hotels & Resorts Inc. (BHR)

I ilke their Operatomg and Asset Acquisition Mindset. However, the BOARD ( AINC) is not acting with Common Share holders as Partners. They Value .01, .02 cents dividends more than Value of Common Shares. They should use the CASH from depreciation to buyback SHARS. As long as they can get a 50% appreciation in CommonShares, they should use Cash ( 8 % cost from Preferred Sales ) to buy backshares. .

The VALUE of the Enterprise is what they should be managing.
DUMB BOARD!!!

$AHT ... Put that portfolio also up ....

Road map to re-stand AHT was laid out in 4Q21. During detailed earnings calls, 2 quarters activities were laid out.
1. IN 4q21, modified T&C's of Oak loan to pay exit fee with stock, not cash
2. Boardok'd to pay Preferred pAST dividends and to keep cuurent. And pay OAK dividends current
3. IN 1q22, File Common stock S3
4. File Preferred S3
BOTH are shelf to meet FUTURE structuring deals
what can these deals be?

A. Some move to UNLOCK some of the mortgages where they cann SELL properties and generate CASH
B. Pre pay OAK loan late in 22 ( prior to 1Q23?)
C. Use Stocks from S3 above to BUY some opportunitic deal

OUTLOOK
2022 : REACH 2019 EBITDA, Group Social business in the mix along Transient Business

2023 ; Business Group business back in the mix

STOP ACTING SURPRISE. This was an uphill comeback and so far in 1Q22, industry is ahead of 2019 ( inflation has added to occupancy while meeting wage cost pressure).

$BHR is ahead. so follow them to see the roadmap AHT has taken and where AHT is at

I was hoping someone else would get the convo going, but I've been hitting refresh for a solid hour now and I can't wait any longer. Given the negative state of the world and the hospitality industry specifically I was kind of encouraged by the earnings announcement. It seems most believed we would lose about $1.45/share and instead we only lost $1.41/share. Of the 13 properties in out portfolio 11 are currently open for business. Revpar is down catastrophically with no real end in sight, but we have been given forbearance by almost all of our lenders. So a bit of a mixed bag, but if the world can right itself sooner rather than later BHR could be a really lucrative play. Last thing, I got the feeling that the board is going to cancel the dividend for the common stock this quarter too, so that a bummer... but probably the right move given the uncertainty of the future. Now somebody pick up the ball and let's get a little convo going!!!

Entered a big position today. I held it previously and sold maybe 2-3 months back at ~7 b/c it was running too fast. Now I am back in and big.
So it is clearly an overshoot.
Why? BHR is high quality hotels, like PK but with weaker and smaller balance sheet. So the fact that they could raise unsecured debt at 4.5% is certainly not negative without the context of Convertible feature. (Go try to raise unsecured debt at 4.5% yourself first...)
Now to Convertible feature. At any price below
6.30 per share their notes are just debt, cheap unsecured debt. At today's price of 5.58 any of the convertible debt holders can go and buy direct in the market at 20% discount. At 6.30 they will be indifferent so yes, they can increase the equity base but so long as I entered below 6.30, I am totally cool with that because their notes already injected liquidity to the company for the period it is required, to ramp up etc. And it does not mean they are capped at 6:30. All cruises diluted I'm the summer at HALF of today's prices...

OK FOLKS, back to Fundamentals!

2019 FY Revenue was $1.5B... " nomral operating environment"

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Todays( 3 July) Yahoo Analysis table show a FORECAST FY $751M! ( delta -50% from 2019)

As of last week. Common Shares VALUE VARY between approximately $800M- $1B
Depending on share price , formula is Number of Shares Times Price.

As of Friday, 231Mil shares * $4/share = $920M.
Take 3.50/share and do your own math...

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As of next week and until deal is completed ( Summer of 2021),
with B. Riley 41M shares convert,
total number of shares would be 230+41 = 271M shares to be before the 1-for 10 Reverse split.
If share price is $4, then Comme Share Value $4 * 271M shares =$1.1B
If share price is $3, then Commen Value is $3* 271 mil shares = $830M

NEW RANGE For Share Value in early July. 800m-$1.1B

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Now Back to Fully RE+OPEN 2022.
1. We SHOULD PASS 2019 PROFITS (even if FFO is LESS THAN 2019 FFO of $1.5B). HOW?
A - OCCUPANCY RATE ... Data in 3 weeks (7/28) will tell us how far we got in 2Q
and waht summer Looks like

B- INCOME from Business + LEISURE might exceed 2019!!!

o Some catch up business EVENTS from 1H will be done in 2H...
Competitve business spirits
New Business - new Industry

o Leisure 2Q2021-1Q2022 will exceed 2Q2019-1Q2020

C - LESS INTERST COSTS!!!
o 1Q Interest costs was just $33M VERSUS FY $333M in 2019 or 84M per quarter
o This is $50M / QTR and this WILL BE EVEN Between better with the last two deals
( total 70M+ shares sold or to be sold).

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With ALL the Converts of Preferred Shares into Common... Say +500M and counting
Using FFO 2022 = 2019,

Common Share Value ( Now 800M-1.1B)
Should head to $1.5B -2,0B

Assume 30M shares post SPLIT...this helps to eastablish a TARGET SHARE 12 month share price
after R-S AND CONVERTs

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Remember folks : REAL ESTATE is fixed assets!!!
Back to FUNDAMENTALs !

$BHR
$AINC
$AHT-PH
$AHT-PD