|Bid||18.24 x 1800|
|Ask||18.25 x 1200|
|Day's Range||18.19 - 18.26|
|52 Week Range||14.58 - 24.41|
|PE Ratio (TTM)||N/A|
|Beta (3Y Monthly)||2.13|
|Expense Ratio (net)||0.90%|
The S&P500; fell Tuesday, down 0.8%, and U.S. 10-year Treasury yields fell 5bps to 1.55%. The market seems to have paid little attention to the U.S. president indicating he would explore” various tax reductions” to help stimulate growth, for example. Instead, investors succumbed to apprehension in rates and trade talks.
As I stated yesterday, crude oil was running into a bit of trouble just above and it does look in fact as if that prediction is going to come true. Because of this, there’s a bit of a trend line keep in the market down, and of course major moving averages.
The lower demand numbers are real so traders are paying close attention to the warning from OPEC. On the other hand, the rally we saw on Monday was fueled by hope and optimism. Usually, real wins the battle, but there is always the chance that hope and optimism will turn into reality. Unfortunately, this is not likely to occur over the near-term.
Positive trade headlines and potential fiscal stimulus provided much-needed relief for investors who have been spooked by recessionary cheerleading and toppling bond yields. However, Boston Fed President Rosengren threw a small glass ice water on the risk market rally dubbing the fall in equities since the July FOMC meeting as “not very big”.
Crude oil markets rallied a bit during the day on Monday, but quite frankly they are heading towards significant resistance above that should continue to come into play. With that in mind I’m looking for Shorty opportunities given enough time.
After Friday’s close, Traders were not putting much weight behind current price action thinking it was little more than profit-taking going through from a variety of overextended risk-off bets or as we call it on the desk “a predictable short-covering rally into the weekend.” But risk assets have opened up on stable footings this morning on the back of positive trade comments from President Trump as investors continue to view each sliver of trade optimism in an extremely positive light. This, despite the domino effect from Argentina plus China and the Eurozone economic woes with triggering the U.S. curve inversion panicking investors while sounding the recessionary alarm bells.
Over the weekend, White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow said trade deputies from the United States and China would speak within 10 days and could advance negotiations over ending the trade dispute between the two economic powerhouses if those talks pan out.
Based on last week’s price action and the close at $57.67, the direction of the December Brent crude oil market on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the minor pivot at $57.97.
The crude oil markets initially tried to rally during the week but failed as we did of forming a shooting star in both grades that we follow here at FX Empire. With this, crude oil looks like it still has many issues.
The crude oil markets fell significantly during the trading session on Friday to close out the week and show signs of weakness yet again. At this point I believe that the market is more than likely going to continue to the downside, so I am shorting.
What bullish traders are really hoping for is a rise in U.S. Treasury yields and renewed strength in U.S. equity markets. This would send an even stronger signal that talk of a U.S. recession is a little premature.
The tone of the market is bearish and not likely to reverse to the upside very much unless today’s U.S. Energy Information Administration’s weekly inventories report posts a much bigger than expected draw down.
Based on yesterday’s price action and the current price at $59.82, the direction of the December Brent crude oil futures contract on Wednesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the main Fibonacci level at $59.71.
Trump extends China an olive branch in a bid to support retailers over the Christmas period. China needs to ramp up agri imports to ease tensions further.
The United States and China are likely to continue talking, and the US has delayed tariffs in order to help the situation. Because of this, there was a big huge “risk on” move during the day, but things are starting to calm down as people realize not much is actually changed.
The hope of OPEC production cuts is likely to continue to support prices, however, unless there is evidence of progress in U.S.-China trade negotiations, gains will be limited.
Crude oil markets hit a major resistance barrier during the trading session on Monday, as we continue to see a lot of back and forth. However, the one thing that you should keep in mind about crude oil is that we certainly have major issues when it comes to demand.
At the end of last week, the news was balanced to bearish, which led to lower prices. This week, we’re going to see if expectations of OPEC production cuts will be enough to provide support. Furthermore, Goldman Sachs cut its U.S. fourth-quarter growth forecast by 20 basis points to 1.8%, citing a larger than-expected impact of recent trade war events. This could be enough to put a lid on gains.
Geopolitics, the Yuan and a string of key stats may test risk sentiment further in the week ahead, which would support the central bank doves…
Based on Friday’s price action and the close at $58.53, the direction of the October Brent crude oil market on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the long-term Fibonacci level at $59.07.
Crude oil markets bounce pretty significantly during the week, showing signs of support and resiliency at major levels. At this point, the market looks likely to continue to be very noisy, but it is likely that we are about to see another opportunity shortly.
Crude oil markets rally during the day on Friday, reaching towards significant resistance. Ultimately, this is a market that continues to show signs of life, but I think it’s only a matter time before sellers get involved.
Friday’s marginal gains and recovery from early session weakness is not enough to get excited about a rally. It’s just price action led by short-covering and position-squaring. The hedge funds are short and likely looking to add to positions in the wake of today’s bearish IEA report.