Boot Barn Holdings, Inc. (BOOT)

Your assertion that BOOT BARN has ties remotely similar to YETI is very uninformed. Boot Barn takes pride in manufacturing their private labels in America. While the replacement of NAFTA was critical to BOOT, China could disappear from the planet and the biggest impact on Boot would be less investors in the market. Boot Barn exposure to China is almost nonexistent unlike GOOS, Nike, Rocky, Starbucks and others. You will not find a Boot Barn in China. Moreover, the CEO often reminds that the number of BOOT merchandise sourced out of China is mid single digits! Please do not pass along misinformation. I finally added today at $33.23 now that the gap is filled and accumulation by institutions who attended the January Conference is providing support. While BOOT remains volatile, few retailers provide the consistent growth seen from LULU and BOOT. The differences include wall street has a difficult time not laughing at "cowboy costumes" while they wear LULU to the office. The other difference: BOOT is on sale for barely above 1x price to sales and LULU is far over 8x. Plus #RodeoHouston

I see BOOT as a compelling Pure Earnings Long play. Tuesday afternoon, before earnings release, I plan to go Long with almost all of my hard capital, to hold through earnings release. I see very good upside potential and very limited downside risk, most especially given the Jan 10 earnings pre-announcement. We basically know that this ER will be very good. I expect updated Guidance on Tuesday to be very good. I do not think the Jan 10 pre-announcement is currently priced into the stock.

Valuation is a bit controversial. Some seem to think this stock is way overvalued right now. I do not see it that way. I think valuation is fair, maybe a little bit on the high side, upon a comprehensive financial analysis, but I see excellent growth ahead. Analysts are bullish, stock has very good upside potential based upon analyst PT's. Financials as a whole are very good. I see a pop to the $48-$50 price level as quite likely, immediately following Tuesday's ER.

Best of Luck to All! :-)

Long 2500 shares of BOOT, jumped into this Baby earlier today at the very nice price of $41.61. This is a Pure Earnings play. BOOT reports earnings in just a few minutes, and I am expecting a very good ER, beats on EPS and Revenue along with positive Guidance, to lift this stock up to at least the $47 level. Am I crazy?? Well...maybe, but my analysis shows there is a good chance of such a pop to the upside tomorrow. We shall see soon enough whether my Crystal Ball was clear enough to pick this play correctly, or whether I really need to go buy some Windex and try to polish the Ball up so that it shows things more clearly. :-)

Best Wishes and Good Luck to All. :-)

Almost too predictably, BOOT BARN gets shorted on a top & bottom beat...followed by a day trader's dream move to fill the gap and a second dive down. When people comment this stock moved from $15-45 in a year ... keep in mind that Boot Barn traded at $30 before the 2018 flash crash. The real move was only $15.

With exception of the market crash at end of 2018, BOOT quickly recovers and goes one leg higher. Unless the sky is falling, I would expect BOOT to spring above $50 in the coming months. We already know that BOOT gained over 300% increased traffic during the week after Thanksgiving and the CEO commented the holiday traffic has so far carried into 2020! Epic battle about to be fought circa the 50 day moving average with a cooled down RSI! I've been loving my BOOT BARN shares since early 2018. If you missed LULU, don't miss out on this monster. I'd considering buying more, but never trust the market's irrational reversals... yet I have waited for the market to correct for 6 months with no event so I think after writing my convictions its time for me to add again.

For those not familiar with the BOOT BARN lifestyle brand, I would point to the 2020 Rodeo Houston line-up. I will assert the entertainers are the best in years. The Rodeo has consistently broken attendance records in recent years which has always positively impacted BOOT with a shot of adrenaline at the beginning of the year (a time when most retailers struggle).

If you believe the 1 year bullish trend is intact and investors will eventually want to buy a stock that consistently performs with minimal, almost no exposure to china... I hope you defend this beautiful beast on a low volume dive we've seen after the initial short after every earnings beat. Defend $40 and reverse back over the 50 day for a rewarding 2020 on BOOT? Remember #RodeoHouston Remember with exception of LULU, very few retailers can grow like BOOT does... and it look like the investment community has stopped laughing at "cowboy costumes" and taken notice of the rest of America! (referring to well-deserved upgrades this week)

Sold my BOOT shares at $37.38 for a loss of just under $10.6k, my first five figure losing play of the year. I knew it would happen sooner or later, I just take the loss and move right on. Jumped into REGN, long 270 shares of REGN at $373.46. REGN has been trending up strongly the past two days, hopefully a strong ER will allow for this momentum to keep moving the stock up, to the $400 level.

When you have a bad play, I think it is wise not to change your trading plans as a result of it. For example, earlier today I had the thought to pass on REGN and do my GRUB Short Sell instead. Why? Because I think GRUB is going down big-time, 10-20%, and offers the chance to make back all the money I just lost on BOOT. But, I had decided yesterday to pass on the Grub short because it was riskier than REGN. Should I change my mind just because of the big BOOT loss?? Logic says, no. There is no huge rush to make back this $10.6k. Everything is fine, I'm still up huge for the year. There is no reason to change any trading decision based solely on this BOOT loss, and so I stuck with REGN as my next play. I try to always trade with logic, instead of emotion.

Best Wishes to All! :-)