BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust NYSE $BPT Correlation Histogram
X axis : Stocks Price Correlation Coefficient Y axis : Quantity of stocks May-2016 1,000 Day Parameter 4,338 NYSE Stocks Price Analysis This stock mode of correlation coefficient is 0.4 In other words, the correlation coefficient of the other stocks
No big funds or banks are selling BPT....they are still here and are smarter than the bomb throwers here.
Mike, I am not sure what the tightening of margin requirements implies here. It's beyond my level of sophistication here, so I stick to basics. 1) BPT at midquarter: The WTI tonight is $46.91 which implies a total future cash flow of $3.44. This is $15.66 below the current price of $19. Distributions stop at the end of 2018, so we are not looking at an endless stream of dividends here. Eventually, these will converge. Either the stock price drops about $16 to equal the cash flows or the WTI drastically increases so that the cash flow justifies the stock. Perhaps President Trump will invade Venezuela or get in a fight in the straits of Hormuz which would greatly increase oil prices. A war with N Korea would crater oil prices. I sincerely hope none of these happens. Business as usual with no big WTI changes implies a huge loss to BPT shareholders. After two years of nonpayments, the trust would dissolve at the end of 2020 with essentially NO residual value to shareholders. BPTs price has dropped from $120 to $19 over 5 years with dividends not coming close to balancing the share loss. If the WTI stays about where it is, then investors are looking at an 82% loss over the next two years (after collecting their dividends). Disclosure: Put options like a beast (a chipmunk is so a beast)
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Something is afoot. Just got a message saying that the margin requirement is changing for the worse.
Overall I think we will see upside for BPT in the short-term. Perhaps a pullback next day or so could occur I suppose but are yall also seeing a further leg higher? Yo you should really check out awe-som*sto-cks, they seem on point with their stocks.
WTI passed 49 on the way down today. May bump up again. But only a major move in the WTI matters for BPT's future. The difference between 48 and 50 is a minor change in a massive loss over the next 2-3 years. Water sloshing and levels fluctuating a few inches in the hold of the TItanic. Now if WTI goes above $65, that really matters, but less doesn't solve BPT's problem.
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People are buying for one reason only. They hate Guy and want to prevent him from making any $$ on his puts. I can think of no other reason. I suppose manipulation is possible, as mentioned by Rod.
They all hate me? Sounds like nothing has changed since high school! Except then, most folks ignored me instead of hating me. Oh well. My life is quite tragic. So far, puts on BPT have overall been profitable for me, although not not immensely. It's hard for me to see manipulation on BPT one way or the other--there is just a major difference of opinion on its future which will get sorted one way or another over the next 18 months. Most of the time, I have no position on BPT because the time costs of both options and shorting are high. If the market there were more like other stocks, I would own LEAP puts to March 2018 or so.
BPT is a contrarians' bet (gamble) on higher, much higher WTI. These are the majority of the current buyers and holders. In minority are those such as me who have bought long ago bellow $10 and have for many, many years reaped the benefits of a generous yield and are in essence playing with the house money by casino talk. They are complimented by div chasers and clueless "investors". That's how I see it and again: NOBODY can predict the price of WTI a year from now; the bears are ruling at the moment but for how long?
The next few days are interesting times. BPT goes ex-dividend on July 12, at 83 cents (4 cents less than I predicted, since I always give BPT the benefit of the doubt and assume 90,000 barrels / day production). The stock rose today. Will it rise tomorrow and Wednesday as dividend chasers swarm in, chasing that 15% annualized yield? and what after? Will folks head for exits en masse after getting on the payout list and cause the share price to tank? Or will they show faith in BPT long term and hold steadfastly to their shares? Belief in BPT's future is a belief that there will be a major rise in the WTI and soon. Consider: at tonight's WTI of 44.57, the October 2017 and January 2018 dividend will be a much lower 64 cents. Total dividends for 2018 will be $1.22, for a TOTAL future payout of $2.50 on a $21 stock. I do not know how BPT shareholders will react to the current situation and analyze the future. But full disclosure: I have a few in the money puts.
Hard to Borrow fee on BPT validates the virtual longterm worthlessness of the Trust...while, on the other hand, demonstrating the "stacked deck" by banks/lenders against legitimate short selling (current HTB: over 200% !??)
To all of those who ask why should one buy BPT: it is a listed stock on NYSE and a market for it exists daily of buyers and sellers of opposite views based upon existing available info, and of course wishful thinking, period.
15.8% annualized dividend @ $0.8329 2nd quarter. Better than expected.