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NVR's disciplined business model and solid segmental performance are likely to boost Q4 results. However, rising land, labor and material costs mar its prospects.
# Lennar Corp ### NYSE:LEN.B View full report here! ## Summary * Perception of the company's creditworthiness is negative but improving * Bearish sentiment is low * Economic output in this company's sector is expanding ## Bearish sentiment Short interest | Positive Short interest is extremely low for LEN.B with fewer than 1% of shares on loan. This could indicate that investors who seek to profit from falling equity prices are not currently targeting LEN.B. ## Money flow ETF/Index ownership | Neutral ETF activity is neutral. The net inflows of $5.41 billion over the last one-month into ETFs that hold LEN.B are among the highest of the last year, but the rate of growth is slowing. ## Economic sentiment PMI by IHS Markit | Positive According to the latest IHS Markit Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data, output in the Consumer Goods sector is rising. The rate of growth is strong relative to the trend shown over the past year, and is accelerating. ## Credit worthiness Credit default swap | Negative The current level displays a negative indicator with a strengthening bias over the past 1-month. Although LEN.B credit default swap spreads are decreasing, they are near their highest levels for the past 1 year, which indicates the market's more negative perception of the company's credit worthiness. Please send all inquiries related to the report to email@example.com. Charts and report PDFs will only be available for 30 days after publishing. This document has been produced for information purposes only and is not to be relied upon or as construed as investment advice. To the fullest extent permitted by law, IHS Markit disclaims any responsibility or liability, whether in contract, tort (including, without limitation, negligence), equity or otherwise, for any loss or damage arising from any reliance on or the use of this material in any way. Please view the full legal disclaimer and methodology information on pages 2-3 of the full report.
Declining interest rates since mid-November have lifted mortgage applications and home builder sentiment. A positive for the 2019 housing market.
Allan Merrill became the CEO of Beazer Homes USA, Inc. (NYSE:BZH) in 2011. This analysis aims first to contrast CEO compensation with other companies that have similar market capitalization. Next, Read More...
Housing stocks were at the core of the late 2018 turbulence in financial markets, mostly because the things that were killing broader markets (the threat of rate hikes and a slowing economy) are especially large headwinds for housing stocks. The SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (NYSEARCA:XHB) peaked in early 2018. Ever since, it has fallen 25%. But, where there's rubble, there's opportunity. Housing stocks actually look attractive here. They have been oversold on overstated concerns regarding the health of the housing market. In reality, the fundamentals underlying the housing sector aren't that bad. They are actually pretty good. Consider the following: * The U.S. consumer is healthy. Despite all the calls for a coming recession, the U.S. consumer is still relatively healthy. The unemployment rate is low. The economy is still adding hundreds of thousands of jobs every month. Labor participation rates are up. Wages are rising. Inflation is checked. Consumer confidence and sentiment are high. Retail sales were robust last holiday season. The personal savings rate is well above its 20 year average. A healthy consumer usually supports a healthy housing market. * Home prices are steadily rising. The S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index is still rising at a gradual mid single-digit year-over-year rate, the same rate it has been rising at for the past three years, thus indicating that supply-demand fundamentals underneath the housing market remain healthy, stable, and favorable for homebuilders. For comparison purpose, back before the housing crisis in 2007-08, home prices went from double digit growth in 2004-2005 to low single-digit growth in 2006 and negative growth in 2007. * New houses are being built at a steady and sustainable rate. The headlines continue to scream about weak housing starts data, but in the big picture, housing starts remain on a multi-year uptrend since 2008. Granted, the pace of the growth has slowed, but the trend presently looks more like moderation in housing starts than a steep drop off in housing starts. Prior to nearly every recession in history, housing starts volume plummeted heading into the economic slowdown. * We are in a seller's market, but buyers are sticking around. The monthly supply of homes in the U.S. real estate market currently measures 7.4. That is up sharply from where the months supply has hovered over the past several years, and does indicate that we are in a seller's market (usually numbers below 5 indicate a buyer's market, while numbers above 7 indicate a seller's market). But, 7.4 months of supply is only slightly above 7. Leading into prior housing market collapses, that number has usually risen as high as at least 8, but usually 10 or higher. * Home ownership rates are low, and have room to move higher. Last quarter, the home ownership rate in the U.S. was below 65%. In the early-to-mid 2000's, the home ownership rate was closing in on 70%. Thus, today's home ownership rate is well off its highs, implying that the pool of potential buyers is still relatively large. So long as that pool remains large, and the individuals within that pool remain economically healthy, the housing market should be relatively stable. * The Fed is going dovish. The Fed was exceptionally hawkish in late 2018. Their tune has changed dramatically in early 2019. Multiple current and former Fed members have come out and voiced dovish opinions regarding a "wait-and-see" approach to rate hikes, and many have suggested that this rate hike cycle may be over. * Mortgage rates are falling. Thanks to a dovish Fed, mortgage rates across the U.S. are finally falling after consistently and sharply rising for most of the back half of 2018. The 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage is around 4.45% today, roughly 45 basis points lower than where it was in mid-November. Falling mortgage rates increase home affordability, and increasing affordability usually sparks demand, especially against the backdrop of low unemployment, rising wages, and a high savings rate. * 7 Stocks to Buy as the Dollar Weakens Overall, the fundamentals underlying the housing market remain strong. Valuations on housing stocks are now anemic. That combination implies a solid opportunity to buy the dip in housing stocks. InvestorPlace - Stock Market News, Stock Advice & Trading Tips ### Housing Stocks Due for a Bounce: LGI Homes (LGIH) Source: Shutterstock One housing stock that looks really good here is LGI Homes (NASDAQ:LGIH). This is a stock which has fallen 30% off its recent highs and trades at a 20% discount to its "normal" valuation (10x trailing earnings, versus 12x average trailing P/E multiple). Yet, LGI just announced record December results that run contrary to the recent 30% decline and 20% valuation discount. As such, estimates and sentiment should move higher, providing a double tailwind for the stock through higher earnings and multiple expansion. Longer term, this is a healthy homebuilder with a history of sustained growth and broad exposure to the U.S. housing sector with operations in 26 markets and 16 states. So long as the housing market remains healthy, LGIH stock should head higher from here. ### Housing Stocks Due for a Bounce: Pulte Group (PHM) Source: Shutterstock Another housing stock that has been overly beaten up is Pulte Group (NYSE:PHM). Pulte Group is big (the nation's third largest homebuilder) with healthy geographic diversity (25 states and nearly 50 major markets) and demographic diversity (30% entry-level buyers, 30% move-up buyers, 15% luxury buyers, and 25% active adult buyers). Because of this broad exposure, Pulte Group truly moves with the U.S. economy. * 10 Growth Stocks With the Future Written All Over Them As stated before, the U.S. economy is actually doing just fine right now, and projects to be just fine for the foreseeable future. PHM stock is not priced for that. Not only has it fallen 20% off recent highs, but it's also trading at under 10x trailing earnings, versus an average trailing P/E multiple of over 12. Thus, so long as the economy continues to stabilize in 2019, PHM stock should rebound. ### Housing Stocks Due for a Bounce: NVR (NVR) Source: Jan Tik via Flickr A large housing stock which looks attractive on this dip is NVR (NYSE:NVR). NVR is a big homebuilder that operates in 14 sates and 31 metropolitan areas. The company's home building operations also span multiple income demographics. As such, given broad exposure to the housing market, stabilization in housing market fundamentals through an indefinite rate hike pause should propel NVR stock higher. If that does happen, NVR stock has plenty of room to run. NVR stock has fallen 30% off its recent highs. More than that, this stock normally trades around 20x trailing earnings. Today, it trades at just 15x trailing earnings. Thus, multiple expansion through improved sentiment could send shares materially higher. ### Housing Stocks Due for a Bounce: Lennar (LEN) Source: Shutterstock One housing stock which has been really beaten up is Lennar (NYSE:LEN). Much like the other homebuilders on this list, Lennar is big with healthy geographic and demographic diversity. But, LEN stock has been chopped down worse than most of its peers. As of this writing, the stock trades nearly 40% off recent highs. * Top 10 Global Stock Ideas for 2019 From RBC Capital This compression provides a big upside opportunity in 2019. If housing market fundamentals continue to stabilize, sentiment surrounding LEN stock will improve dramatically. That will lead to huge multiple expansion. Normally, LEN stock trades around 15x trailing earnings. Today, it trades at about half that level, around 8x trailing earnings. Thus, this stock could easily almost double from here if valuation simply reverts to the norm. ### Housing Stocks Due for a Bounce: D.R. Horton (DHI) Source: -v via Flickr (modified) The number one homebuilder in America by closings volume -- D.R. Horton (NYSE:DHI) -- also looks good on this dip. The fundamentals here are good. DHI is the biggest homebuilder in America and has been so for almost two decades. The company has broad geographic and demographic diversity, and controls dominant market share in rapidly expanding metro areas like Phoenix and Dallas Fort Worth. Fiscal 2018 was a good year, with healthy sales and closing growth and 20%-plus ROI. If these fundamentals persist in 2019 -- and they should -- then DHI stock will rebound in a big way. This stock is already more than 25% off its recent highs. It is also trading at just 10x trailing earnings, versus a five-year average trailing multiple of 15. Thus, multiple expansion and stabilized EPS forecasts could drive huge gains for DHI stock in 2019. ### Housing Stocks Due for a Bounce: KB Home (KBH) Source: Shutterstock The housing stock that was hit hardest in 2018 was KB Home (NYSE:KBH). Due to deterioration it its core operating results as a result of macroeconomic headwinds, KBH stock struggled throughout 2018. But, those macroeconomic headwinds are improving, and the company just reported fourth-quarter numbers that were largely better than expected and confirm a "less bad" macroeconomic backdrop. * 7 Oversold Small-Cap Stocks With Massive Profit Growth But KBH stock isn't priced for "less bad". It's priced for "more bad". KBH has plunged nearly 50% off its January 2018 highs, and trades at just 12x trailing earnings, versus a five-year average trailing P/E multiple of 15. Estimates have also come down sharply over the past several months. Thus, through a combination of multiple expansion and higher EPS revisions, KBH stock could soar in 2019. ### Housing Stocks Due for a Bounce: Toll Brothers (TOL) Source: Shutterstock The final beaten up housing stock on this list is Toll Brothers (NYSE:TOL). Due to rising home prices and mortgage rates, Toll Brothers shocked investors in early December by reporting its first decline in new orders in 4 years. That essentially confirmed a housing market slowdown, and kept bears in control of TOL stock. But, mortgage rates are now starting to fall, and that could provide a nice lift to beaten-up TOL stock. After all, this stock trades at just 7x trailing earnings. That's super cheap, even for a housing stock. It's also well below the stock's average trailing P/E of 17. Plus, 2019 EPS estimates have come down more than 10% in the past 90 days alone, implying that next year's numbers look beatable. Overall, successive EPS beats plus multiple expansion could drive huge gains for TOL stock in 2019. As of this writing, Luke Lango was long XHB, LGIH, KBH, and TOL. ### More From InvestorPlace * 2 Toxic Pot Stocks You Should Avoid * 10 Growth Stocks With the Future Written All Over Them * 7 Reasons Why Buffett's Bet on Apple Stock Is a Good One * 10 Companies That Could Post Decelerating Profits Compare Brokers The post 7 Beaten-Up Housing Stocks Due for a Bounce Back appeared first on InvestorPlace.
NVR (NVR) doesn't possess the right combination of the two key ingredients for a likely earnings beat in its upcoming report. Get prepared with the key expectations.
Two major homebuilders with strong local presences in the Twin Cities have spent millions to acquire land in Dayton to keep their development plans rolling.
NEW YORK, Jan. 17, 2019 -- In new independent research reports released early this morning, Market Source Research released its latest key findings for all current investors,.
MIAMI, Jan. 16, 2019 /PRNewswire/ -- Lennar Corporation (NYSE:LEN and LEN.B), one of the nation's leading homebuilders, today announced that Fred Rothman has been promoted to the position of Chief Operating Officer. Today's announcement recognizes the significant contribution and leadership that Mr. Rothman has brought to Lennar over many years. Mr. Rothman will continue to oversee the Company's East Homebuilding Region and will take on an expanded role in Lennar's strategic land acquisition program.
Builder sentiment rose 2 points to 58 in January on a monthly index from the National Association of Home Builders. This came after two months of sharp drops in sentiment to the lowest level in more than two years. Current sales conditions rose 2 points to 63.
Beazer Homes (BZH) (www.beazer.com) announced that it is revising the timing for the release of its financial results for the quarter ended December 31, 2018 to Monday, February 4, 2019 after the close of the market. In addition, the conference call will be available by telephone at 800-619-8639 (for international callers, dial 312-470-7002). Headquartered in Atlanta, Beazer Homes is one of the country’s 10 largest single-family homebuilders.
In Robert Louis Stevenson's famous book, "Strange Case of Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde," Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde were one human being with a split personality. Dr. Jekyll healed people and Mr. Hyde murdered them. This economic environment and the U.S. stock market have the same kind of split personality.
Luxury Mixed-Use Community Brings 220 Apartment Homes to San Diego's Little Italy Neighborhood SAN DIEGO , Jan. 15, 2019 /PRNewswire/ -- LMC, a leader in apartment development and management, today announced ...
Housing stocks, which have rebounded this year with the market, are still far off their one-year highs and could continue to plunge even further as the fundamentals of the U.S. housing industry weaken.
# Lennar Corp ### NYSE:LEN View full report here! ## Summary * Perception of the company's creditworthiness is negative but improving * Bearish sentiment is low * Economic output in this company's sector is expanding ## Bearish sentiment Short interest | Positive Short interest is low for LEN with fewer than 5% of shares on loan. The last change in the short interest score occurred more than 1 month ago and implies that there has been little change in sentiment among investors who seek to profit from falling equity prices. ## Money flow ETF/Index ownership | Neutral ETF activity is neutral. The net inflows of $11.47 billion over the last one-month into ETFs that hold LEN are not among the highest of the last year and have been slowing. ## Economic sentiment PMI by IHS Markit | Positive According to the latest IHS Markit Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data, output in the Consumer Goods sector is rising. The rate of growth is strong relative to the trend shown over the past year, and is accelerating. ## Credit worthiness Credit default swap | Negative The current level displays a negative indicator with a strengthening bias over the past 1-month. Although LEN credit default swap spreads are decreasing, they are near their highest levels for the past 1 year, which indicates the market's more negative perception of the company's credit worthiness. Please send all inquiries related to the report to firstname.lastname@example.org. Charts and report PDFs will only be available for 30 days after publishing. This document has been produced for information purposes only and is not to be relied upon or as construed as investment advice. To the fullest extent permitted by law, IHS Markit disclaims any responsibility or liability, whether in contract, tort (including, without limitation, negligence), equity or otherwise, for any loss or damage arising from any reliance on or the use of this material in any way. Please view the full legal disclaimer and methodology information on pages 2-3 of the full report.
Lennar Corp. has acquired a Miami property that includes the Wynwood Yard food venue and the O Cinema was sold for $17 million and may be redeveloped, according to Sandstone Realty Advisors President Jim Fried, who brokered the deal. Wynwood Yard was one of the first major culinary attractions in the neighborhood, which has transitioned from an industrial area into a district for arts, dining and entertainment. Wynwood Yard founder Della Heiman is currently working on plans to open food halls in both Miami Beach and Doral.
Even though Lennar's earnings results weren't the best result recently, its chairman of the board still sees plenty of reasons to be optimistic.
Beazer Homes (BZH) (www.beazer.com) has scheduled the release of its financial results for the quarter ended December 31, 2018 on Monday, February 4, 2019 before the open of the market. The public may listen to the conference call and view the Company's slide presentation on the "Investor Relations" page of the Company's website, www.beazer.com. In addition, the conference call will be available by telephone at 800-619-8639 (for international callers, dial 312-470-7002).
Rising interest rates took a bite out of homebuilding stocks last year. From peak-to-trough, the Homebuilders ETF (NYSEARCA:XHB) experienced a 35% decline that broke the back of its weekly uptrend. The deteriorating price action has led many to wonder if traders are sniffing out economic weakness on the horizon that will hamper the housing market. The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage which sat as low as 3.41% in late-2016 rallied to just shy of 5% last year. While a mild rise in rates isn't likely to price buyers out of the market, a large rise will. And, no matter how you spin it, a ramp like we just saw is significant. But here's where I think things get interesting. Interest rates have backed off quite a bit over the past two months, breathing new life into homebuilders, which might make this an industry worth bottom fishing in. InvestorPlace - Stock Market News, Stock Advice & Trading Tips * 10 A-Rated Stocks the Smart Money Is Piling Into Here are three of the top homebuilding stocks to consider. ### Toll Brothers (TOL) Source: ThinkorSwim Toll Brothers (NYSE:TOL) dragged the homebuilding sector lower last year, and it may be poised to lead it higher this year. 2018's 43% intrayear decline created many bearish setups for short sellers to capitalize on, but in Q4 it finally carved out a clear bottoming pattern. The rally at the turn of the year completed the reversal and kicked off a fresh uptrend. The 20-day and 50-day moving averages are both rising to confirm buyers' newfound dominance in the short- and intermediate-term trends. With TOL stock testing its 200-day moving average overhead, I suggest waiting for a pullback toward support at $34 or a breakout above $36.60 before buying. ### Lennar (LEN) Source: ThinkorSwim Lennar (NYSE:LEN) outpaced TOL stock to the downside last year with a 48% intra-year decline. But the catalyst that arrested the descent should be emboldening buyers here. On Jan. 9, Lennar reported better-than-expected earnings and its share price scored a rousing breakout. While its turnabout isn't as mature as TOL, I like the groundswell in volume we've seen accompanying the nascent uptrend. Continued institutional accumulation should support the trend reversal and make price dips from here a buyable event. * 7 Stocks to Buy That Are Ready for Takeoff If you're a willing LEN stock buyer, I like selling the Feb $42.50 puts for around 70 cents to 80 cents. ### D. R. Horton (DHI) Source: ThinkorSwim At -39%, last year's beating in D. R. Horton (NYSE:DHI) wasn't as severe as its predecessors. But the thrashing was enough to turn its trend across all time frames lower. Fortunately, the rally off the lows has been as impressive as TOL and LEN, making its budding uptrend tempting to bet on. In the short run, DHI stock has become a touch overextended, so some backing and filling may be in order before a low-risk entry emerges. Watch for a pullback toward $37 or a breakout over $40 before pulling the trigger. The stock has its quarterly earnings release slated for Jan. 25. As of this writing, Tyler Craig didn't hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities. Check out his recently released Bear Market Survival Guide to learn how to defend your portfolio against market volatility. ### More From InvestorPlace * 2 Toxic Pot Stocks You Should Avoid * 10 Key Emerging-Market Stocks to Buy for Contrarian Investors * 7 Stocks at Risk of the Global Smartphone Slowdown * 7 Pharmaceutical Stocks That Just Raised Prices This Year Compare Brokers The post 3 Homebuilder Stocks on the Mend appeared first on InvestorPlace.
Canadian homebuilder Mattamy Homes Corp., which has its U.S. operations based in Winter Park, is one of Central Florida’s most active homebuilders. The firm's current Orlando-area projects include the proposed Starwood community near Lake Nona that includes 4,400 homes, as well as Randal Park in southeast Orlando and Oxford Chase in Winter Garden, among others. Mattamy Homes — Central Florida's No. 3 homebuilder with 792 housing starts locally in 2017 — describes itself as solution-oriented and results-driven, but always fun.
Yahoo Finance’s Adam Shapiro and Julie Hyman join First American Chief Economist Mark Fleming and LendingTree Chief Economist Tendayi Kapfidze to discuss the correlation between low millennial homeownership and student debt.