The Canadian dollar rallied against its broadly weaker U.S. counterpart on Monday as oil prices rose and investors continued to bet on another oversized interest rate hike by the Bank of Canada despite disappointing Canadian jobs data last week. The price of crude oil, one of Canada's major exports, rebounded from a six-month low it hit on Friday as positive economic data from China and the United States fed hopes for demand. U.S. crude oil futures settled nearly 2% higher at $90.76 a barrel, while the Canadian dollar was trading 0.5% higher at 1.2860 to the greenback, or 77.76 U.S. cents.
Analysts expect the Canadian dollar to rally over the coming year, betting the threat of recession will ease as the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada likely wind down rate-hike cycles in 2023, a Reuters poll showed. "USD strength comes from both Fed rate hikes as well as fears that those hikes will provoke a recession in 2023," said Greg Anderson, global head of foreign exchange strategy at BMO Capital Markets in New York. "If and as those fears fade in 2023, with the Fed and BoC going on hold, the USD should fade lower and USD-CAD should revert toward its long-run average, and where it should be based on excellent Canadian currency fundamentals."
The Canadian dollar strengthened against the greenback on Wednesday as worries about a possible recession eased following encouraging economic data from the United States, Canada's largest trading partner, offsetting a slide in oil prices. Wall Street rallied as data showed that the U.S. services sector rebounded unexpectedly in July and orders for U.S.-manufactured goods increased solidly in June. "The economic data broadly came in higher than expected as the service part of the economy seems to be stabilizing and price pressures are improving," Edward Moya, a senior market analyst at OANDA in New York, said in a note.