Capstone Companies, Inc. (CAPC)

Daily Spotlight: Final 1Q GDP Reading: Negative 1.6%The U.S. Department of Commerce this morning announced that its "third" estimate for 1Q22 GDP was a decline of 1.6%. This was slightly below previous estimates but in line with the consensus outlook. Despite the negative number, we are not convinced that this data point indicates that the U.S. is headed for a near-term recession. There were just too many signs of core strength in the results, including a 5.9% increase in Personal Consumption Expenditures on Durable Goods, a 3.0% increase in PCE Services, a 14% increase in Investment in Equipment, and an 11% increase in Investment in Intellectual Property Products. To be sure, high gas prices are weighing on the economy (PCE Nondurable Goods declined 3.7%) as is the war in Ukraine (Exports declined 5%). Quirks remain, as Government spending declined 3% and Imports rose 19%. Neither of those latter trends seems sustainable, in our view. And looking ahead, we anticipate a modest rebound in overall GDP in 2022. As for 2023, we will need to see how high short-term interest rates go - and how fast they rise - over the remainder of the year.