|Bid||0.00 x 0|
|Ask||0.00 x 0|
|Day's Range||8.57 - 8.80|
|52 Week Range||6.71 - 9.98|
|PE Ratio (TTM)||N/A|
|Forward Dividend & Yield||N/A (N/A)|
|1y Target Est||N/A|
The past one month has been good for precious metals with the exception of platinum. Gold, silver, and palladium have increased a whopping 3%, 6.4%, and 4.4%, respectively, during the last 30 trading days. Platinum has dropped about 0.97% during the same timeframe.
IAMGOLD (IAG) was the best-performing gold stock of 2017, returning 51.4% for the year. It significantly outperformed the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) as well as the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD). In 2018, however, the equation has somewhat reversed. Its stock has returned -4.5% year-to-date as of April 17.
The International Monetary Fund (or IMF) also warned that the downside risks to world financial stability have increased over the past six months. In this context, it added, “Valuations of risky assets are still stretched, with some late-stage credit cycle dynamics emerging, reminiscent of the pre-crisis period.” This it believes could lead to the unwinding of risks, leading to higher risk premiums and repricing of risky assets. The IMF’s view of US equity markets is similar to that of Morgan Stanley’s (MS).
In this part of our series, we’ll look at the correlation between gold and four mining stocks: Franco-Nevada (FNV), Coeur Mining (CDE), Kinross Gold (KGC), and Eldorado Gold (EGO). Mining stocks mostly move with gold prices, but not always. Among these four miners, Kinross has shown the highest correlation with gold this year, while Eldorado Gold has seen a negative correlation.
Overall, gold has been rising in 2018, mainly due to the geopolitical tensions that keep increasing. First, we had fears of a US-China trade war, and now we have the Syrian chemical attack and subsequent air strikes. Another crucial element is the decline of the US dollar, which we’ll look at in the next part of this series.
Additionally, this was an improvement in sentiment as investors who seek to profit from falling equity prices reduced their short positions on February 16. Over the last one-month, outflows of investor capital in ETFs holding CDE totaled $292 million.
April 11, 2018, marked the fourth straight day of a rise in gold’s price. Gold rose 1.1% on the day and closed at $1,356.5 per ounce. The volatility reading in gold stood at 13%, a little higher than the previous day’s reading. Gold’s RSI (relative strength index) level also jumped to 61.
In this part of our series, we’ll look at the correlation between gold and four mining stocks: Coeur Mining (CDE), Barrick Gold (ABX), Kinross Gold (KGC), and Eldorado Gold (EGO). Mining stocks mostly move with gold prices but not always. Among these four miners, Kinross Gold has shown the highest correlation with gold, while Eldorado Gold has seen a negative correlation to gold on a YTD (year-to-date) basis.
In this part of our series, we’ll look at the correlation between gold and four mining stocks: Franco-Nevada (FNV), Coeur Mining (CDE), Cia De Minas Buenaventura (BVN), and Hecla Mining (HL). Mining stocks mostly move with gold prices but not always. Among these four miners under discussion, Cia De Minas has shown the highest correlation with gold, while Hecla has the lowest correlation to gold on a YTD (or year-to-date) basis.
Palladium has been the weakest performer among the four precious metals on a YTD (year-to-date) basis. Palladium is more inclined toward its industrial side than its use as a precious metal due to its many industrial uses. Palladium is used as a catalyst in diesel-based engines.
Additionally, this was an improvement in sentiment as investors who seek to profit from falling equity prices reduced their short positions on February 16. Index (PMI) data, output in the Basic Materials sector is rising.
Among the four precious metals that we’ll be discussing in this series, only gold saw gains on Wednesday, April 4. Gold prices for April futures were up 0.23% and closed at $1,335.8 an ounce. Platinum was down 1.4% and was the biggest loser among the four precious metals.
The US equity market has been on an upward trend since the US presidential election in November 2016. The equity market’s valuation is also high compared to its historical average. Moreover, the bull run by the equity markets in 2017 was accompanied by very low volatility. The equity markets dropped again on March 23, 2018, on trade war fears as the Trump administration talked about imposing additional tariffs on Chinese imports.
Uncertainty or volatility in the markets is increasing. The markets are adjusting for the high volatility phase after a prolonged period of low volatility across markets. The most recent issue fueling volatility is the fear of a trade war.
Among the stocks we’ve discussed throughout this series, Tahoe Resources (TAHO) is trading at the lowest forward EV-to-EBITDA (enterprise value to earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization) multiple of 4.7x. The stock is trading at a huge discount of 60% to its trailing-five-year average. Tahoe Resources’ stock price, as well as analysts’ corresponding estimates, took a severe dive after the Guatemalan government’s decision to suspend its Escobal mine license on July 5, 2017. Its valuation multiple has also fallen 27% since July.
First Majestic Silver’s (AG) stock price has seen the highest fall among its peers (SIL) YTD (year-to-date) in 2018. Analysts expect First Majestic Silver to see revenue of $347.7 million in 2018, which implies a YoY (year-over-year) rise of 37.8%. Analysts’ estimates for 2019 imply another rise of 26.1% YoY.
The woes relating to its Guatemalan mine license led Tahoe Resources (TAHO) to underperform significantly in 2017. While a year ago, 86% of the analysts covering TAHO gave it “buy” ratings, currently this amount has halved to 43%. On July 5, 2017, the government of Guatemala decided to revoke Tahoe Resources’ permit to operate its Escobal mine.
Coeur Mining’s (CDE) YTD (year-to-date) operational performance has been strong. Among major silver miners, it has given the highest return and has been the exception, providing positive returns. As we learned in the previous article, the iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) has returned -3.8% YTD, and the Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL) has returned -8.2% in the same period.
Of late, the most crucial factors affecting gold prices are the US dollar and the potential change in the US interest rate. Precious metals are highly sensitive to movements in Treasury rates, as gold and Treasuries are competitors as haven assets. As investors await the Federal Reserve’s meeting in a few days, there’s a high chance that the interest rate will rise.