CDLX - Cardlytics, Inc.

NasdaqGS - NasdaqGS Real Time Price. Currency in USD
43.68
+0.79 (+1.84%)
At close: 4:00PM EDT
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Performance Outlook
  • Short Term
    2W - 6W
  • Mid Term
    6W - 9M
  • Long Term
    9M+
Previous Close42.89
Open45.40
Bid43.01 x 1000
Ask59.00 x 800
Day's Range43.03 - 47.93
52 Week Range14.14 - 107.50
Volume1,653,179
Avg. Volume918,074
Market Cap1.166B
Beta (5Y Monthly)2.52
PE Ratio (TTM)N/A
EPS (TTM)-0.72
Earnings DateMay 10, 2020 - May 14, 2020
Forward Dividend & YieldN/A (N/A)
Ex-Dividend DateN/A
1y Target Est61.25
Fair Value is the appropriate price for the shares of a company, based on its earnings and growth rate also interpreted as when P/E Ratio = Growth Rate. Estimated return represents the projected annual return you might expect after purchasing shares in the company and holding them over the default time horizon of 5 years, based on the EPS growth rate that we have projected.
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      One technology stock that deserves your attention, given its explosive gains over the past year and its huge potential in the long run, is Cardlytics (NASDAQ:CDLX) stock. At its core, this is a payment card analytics company, which leverages credit and debit card data to pair marketers with consumers and power relevant and strong bank loyalty and rewards programs.This business model is taking off. When Cardlytics hit the public markets back in early 2018, the company had only partnered with one major bank, Bank of America (NYSE:BAC), and had just 50 million active users. Today, Cardlytics has partnerships with JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) and Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC), too, and is approaching 150 million monthly active users, meaning that Cardlytics now has purchase data on essentially one out of every two card swipes in the U.S.That's a lot of data. And there's a lot of value in that data. 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That is, banks around the globe have collectively issued billions of payment cards, and those billions of payment cards are used several times each year. Consequently, in any given year, banks are collectively producing billions upon billions of consumer purchase data points. * 9 Up-and-Coming Small-Cap Stocks to Watch So, Cardlytics created a platform aimed at tapping into that enormous payment card database. Their angle? Loyalty and rewards programs.The process is simple. Partner with banks. Gain access to all that data. Use that data to work with marketers to create highly personalized and tailored loyalty and rewards programs for the banks. Banks get increased customer spending. Marketers get increased product awareness and sales. Cardlytics gets a fee for setting it all up.Sounds genius to me. It's also sustainable, because in data businesses, scale matters. The bigger Cardlytics gets, the more data it has, and the better loyalty programs it can build. So, as more and more banks migrate to this data-driven loyalty program model, they will trust the biggest player, Cardlytics, to do the best job.Further, Cardlytics is primed for big growth because they only have 150 million monthly active users, and there are over a billion payment cards in the world. Even further, this is a relatively high-margin business with a lot of fixed costs, so sustained big revenue and user growth will inevitably drive positive operating leverage and result in huge profits. Cardlytics Stock is Maxed OutAlthough CDLX stock is a long term winner, a lot of that long term winning has already been done in the past year, with shares up 400% over that stretch. Going forward, near term upside in CDLX stock may be relatively muted by valuation friction.As is obvious, I'm bullish on Cardlytics' long-term growth prospects. My long-term model on the company reflects this bullishness. I assume that the company can sustain robust double-digit user growth for the next several years, thanks to increased U.S. penetration and some international expansion. I further assume that average revenue per user will trend higher, too, and that revenue growth will remain steadily north of 20% for the next few years.Other critical assumptions include relatively slow expense growth in the 10% to 15% per year range, sustained margin expansion, and significant profitability ramp into 2025.But, even under all those bullish assumptions, I still have a hard time justifying the CDLX stock price today.My long-term model pegs Cardlytics' earnings per share at $3.50 by 2025. Based on an 35x forward earnings multiple -- which is a medium-term average for application software stocks -- and a 10% annual discount rate, that implies a 2020 price target for CDLX stock of about $85. * The Top 5 Dow Jones Stocks to Buy for 2020 That's roughly where shares trade hands today. So, relative to the company's long-term profit growth prospects, Cardlytics stock is fully valued in the near term. Smart Company, Doing Smart ThingsI like Cardlytics. This is a smart company, doing smart things, with a ton of growth momentum, a long runway ahead to sustain that momentum, and a favorable financial profile that lends itself to robust long term profit growth potential. For all intents and purposes, CDLX stock is a long-term winner.But, shares have come very far, very fast, and appear fully valued in the near term. So, it's probably best not to chase this rally. Instead, wait for the stock to cool off. Wait for the inevitable hiccup and dip. Then, buy that dip.As of this writing, Luke Lango did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities. 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