9.12 +0.03 (0.33%)
After hours: 6:02PM EST
|Bid||9.09 x 1100|
|Ask||9.75 x 4000|
|Day's Range||8.30 - 9.24|
|52 Week Range||6.54 - 24.77|
|Beta (3Y Monthly)||1.71|
|PE Ratio (TTM)||25.11|
|Earnings Date||Feb 20, 2019 - Feb 25, 2019|
|Forward Dividend & Yield||N/A (N/A)|
|1y Target Est||12.86|
Alcoa: Strong Q4 Numbers Can’t Hide Its WeaknessAlcoaAlcoa (AA), the leading US-based aluminum producer (XME), released its fourth-quarter earnings on January 16 after the markets closed. The company reported revenues of $3.3 billion during the
# Century Aluminum Co ### NASDAQ/NGS:CENX View full report here! ## Summary * Bearish sentiment is moderate and increasing * Economic output in this company's sector is contracting ## Bearish sentiment Short interest | Neutral Short interest is moderate for CENX with between 5 and 10% of shares outstanding currently on loan. This represents an increase in short interest as investors who seek to profit from falling equity prices added to their short positions on January 9. ## Money flow ETF/Index ownership | Neutral ETF activity is neutral. The net inflows of $1.72 billion over the last one-month into ETFs that hold CENX are not among the highest of the last year and have been slowing. ## Economic sentiment PMI by IHS Markit | Negative According to the latest IHS Markit Purchasing Managersâ€™ Index (PMI) data, output in the Basic Materialsis falling. The rate of decline is significant relative to the trend shown over the past year. ## Credit worthiness Credit default swap CDS data is not available for this security. Please send all inquiries related to the report to email@example.com. Charts and report PDFs will only be available for 30 days after publishing. This document has been produced for information purposes only and is not to be relied upon or as construed as investment advice. To the fullest extent permitted by law, IHS Markit disclaims any responsibility or liability, whether in contract, tort (including, without limitation, negligence), equity or otherwise, for any loss or damage arising from any reliance on or the use of this material in any way. Please view the full legal disclaimer and methodology information on pages 2-3 of the full report.
China’s Trade Surplus Surges Higher under Trump’s Watch(Continued from Prior Part)Aluminum exportsIn the previous article, we noted that Chinese steel exports have fallen on a YoY basis for three years, and last year’s exports were roughly 38%
Alcoa: Could There Be a Surprise in Its Q4 Earnings? In the previous part, we noted that Alcoa’s (AA) 2019 earnings estimates look elevated. Aluminum prices (RIO) are hovering near $1,800 per metric ton, while the Alumina Price Index is ~$400 per metric ton.
Alcoa: Could There Be a Surprise in Its Q4 Earnings? (Continued from Prior Part) ## Alcoa As we noted previously, aluminum producers, including Century Aluminum (CENX), fell sharply last year and aluminum prices fell. Alumina was relatively strong in 2018 amid supply disruptions. While Alcoa (AA) stock also fell last year, its earnings were actually strong due to higher alumina prices (AWC). Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters expect Alcoa to post an adjusted EBITDA of $3.0 billion in 2018, which is ~30% higher than its 2017 EBITDA. ## Fourth-quarter estimates Looking at the fourth-quarter estimates, Alcoa is expected to post revenues of $3.35 billion in the fourth quarter. The company posted revenues of $3.39 billion in the third quarter and $3.17 billion in the fourth quarter of 2017. Alcoa’s adjusted EBITDA is expected to fall to $717 million in the fourth quarter from $795 million in the third quarter. While Alcoa’s fourth-quarter numbers don’t look that bad, the real test could be in 2019. Analysts expect Alcoa’s adjusted EBITDA to fall to $531 million in the first quarter of 2019. Although analysts expect the company’s EBITDA to rise in the following quarters, the estimates seem to be assuming higher aluminum prices from the current levels. ## Key drivers Falling aluminum prices (RIO) have dented Chinese aluminum smelters’ profitability. Later in 2018, Chinese smelters decided on capacity curtailments. The situation is particularly bleak for smelters that don’t have captive alumina refineries. The alumina-to-aluminum ratio is elevated, which hurts standalone smelters’ earnings. While alumina has come off its highs and the alumina-to-aluminum ratio has come down, it’s still high compared to historical averages. Alumina prices might fall more in 2019, which could hurt integrated producers like Alcoa. Alcoa’s fiscal 2019 estimates appear to be on the higher side compared to other metal prices. Next, we’ll discuss how analysts are rating Alcoa before its fourth-quarter earnings release. Continue to Next Part Browse this series on Market Realist: * Part 1 - Alcoa: Could There Be a Surprise in Its Q4 Earnings? * Part 3 - Alcoa Stock: Analysts Might Be a Little Too Optimistic
Alcoa: Could There Be a Surprise in Its Q4 Earnings? ## Alcoa Alcoa (AA), the leading US-based aluminum producer (XME), is scheduled to release its fourth-quarter earnings on January 16 after the markets close. Overall, 2018 was a terrible year for metal and mining companies. Alcoa wasn’t an exception. As aluminum prices fell amid concerns about China’s slowdown, aluminum producers, including Alcoa and Century Aluminum (CENX), also fell sharply. ## Aluminum prices Aluminum prices were volatile last year. In April, prices rose to multiyear highs following the RUSAL sanctions. However, we saw a sharp sell-off in aluminum after the sanctions were relaxed. The RUSAL sanctions could be waived after the company restructured its board towards the end of 2018. Alumina held the baton for volatility last year. Alumina saw several wide price swings. From the RUSAL sanctions to the curtailment of Norsk Hydro’s Alunorte refinery, a series of disruptions hit alumina markets (AWC) (S32). ## Fourth-quarter earnings While 2018 was a somber year for Alcoa, the company managed to generate a surprise in its third-quarter earnings. Alcoa posted better-than-expected earnings and announced a $200 million share buyback during its earnings release. The move led to a sharp rally in Alcoa’s stock after its third-quarter earnings release. However, we saw weakness in Alcoa in the fourth quarter amid the broader market sell-off. In this series, we’ll see what analysts expect from Alcoa’s fourth-quarter earnings. We’ll also discuss how analysts view Alcoa ahead of its fourth-quarter earnings release. Continue to Next Part Browse this series on Market Realist: * Part 2 - Alcoa: 2019 Might Be the Real Test * Part 3 - Alcoa Stock: Analysts Might Be a Little Too Optimistic
# Century Aluminum Co ### NASDAQ/NGS:CENX View full report here! ## Summary * ETFs holding this stock are seeing positive inflows * Bearish sentiment is moderate and increasing * Economic output in this company's sector is contracting ## Bearish sentiment Short interest | Neutral Short interest is moderate for CENX with between 5 and 10% of shares outstanding currently on loan. This represents an increase in short interest as investors who seek to profit from falling equity prices added to their short positions on January 9. ## Money flow ETF/Index ownership | Positive ETF activity is positive. Over the last month, growth of ETFs holding CENX is favorable, with net inflows of $4.96 billion. This is among the highest net inflows seen over the last one-year and the rate of additional inflows appears to be increasing. ## Economic sentiment PMI by IHS Markit | Negative According to the latest IHS Markit Purchasing Managersâ€™ Index (PMI) data, output in the Basic Materialsis falling. The rate of decline is significant relative to the trend shown over the past year. ## Credit worthiness Credit default swap CDS data is not available for this security. Please send all inquiries related to the report to firstname.lastname@example.org. Charts and report PDFs will only be available for 30 days after publishing. This document has been produced for information purposes only and is not to be relied upon or as construed as investment advice. To the fullest extent permitted by law, IHS Markit disclaims any responsibility or liability, whether in contract, tort (including, without limitation, negligence), equity or otherwise, for any loss or damage arising from any reliance on or the use of this material in any way. Please view the full legal disclaimer and methodology information on pages 2-3 of the full report.
One of the best investments we can make is in our own knowledge and skill set. With that in mind, this article will work through how we can use Return Read More...
It's admittedly a paradox. Although United States Steel (NYSE:X) is on the verge of logging its best full-year revenue since 2014 and its most profitable year since 2008, X stock itself just came up and off multi-year lows after falling more 60% from its March peak. The explanation for the mismatched trends isn't terribly tough to come up with. Fear about the impact of new tariffs on steel imported into the United States -- mostly fear of the unknown -- drove U.S. Steel stock along with peers like AK Steel (NYSE:AKS) and Century Aluminum (NASDAQ:CENX) sharply lower. But, by and large, those tariffs created their intended result. That is, U.S.-based providers like AK Steel and U.S. Steel have enjoyed more pricing power without facing a demand headwind. The economy remains rather robust, even if the auto-making industry has cooled. To that end, one overarching question surfaces … if what should have been bullish for U.S. Steel stock was actually bearish, might what is arguably supposed to be bearish end up serving as a tailwind for X stock? InvestorPlace - Stock Market News, Stock Advice & Trading Tips ### More Good Than Harm Only in retrospect has it become evident that too many investors were looking at the matter through a one-dimensional (and probably a politically charged) lens. * 10 Oversold Stocks Due for a Bounce Certainly a shakeup of how the nation conducts business with China, its most important trade partner, primarily by the hand of polarizing President Donald Trump was an uncomfortable development for some. Although most everyone agrees the heavy tariffs China imposes on U.S. goods sold in China are less than fair, not everyone agreed now was the right time to push back. Trump pushed back anyway. The end result thus far hasn't given critics much to complain about. Nucor (NYSE:NUE) and Steel Dynamics (NASDAQ:STLD) are both expected to report record annual earnings once their fourth-quarter numbers are posted. Although generally closer to the beginning of the supply chain than Nucor and Steel Dynamics, AK Steel and U.S. Steel aren't having bad years either. U.S. Steel, for instance, is on pace to beef up its top line by nearly 17% for fiscal 2018, driving a huge profit increase. Both are expected to continue improving through next year, even at a more moderated pace. That's because prices for raw steel and finished steel products are firm, and demand isn't yet abating … with the 'and' being the operative word of that explanation. Prices for hot-rolled steel sheets are up nearly 70% since their January low, and remain within reach of the multi-year high hit in September despite falling roughly 20% in the meantime. Noteworthy is that prices for China's still fell to a similar degree at the same time, suggesting the country most targeted by 2018's import tariffs is finally starting to feel a pinch. And, as of October, the World Steel Association predicted 2018's consumption of steel would roll in 3.9% higher than 2017's tally, and then grow another 1.4% in 2019. Moreover, that outlook was offered before prices broadly fell, which may in fact facilitate even more consumption provided the global economy sidesteps a recession. ### Looking Ahead for X Stock Fast-forward to this week. Although it will be a far-from-finalized end to the tariff war, this week, representatives from China and the United States are meeting to discuss trade. China, undeniably feeling the impact of new tariffs more than U.S. companies are -- despite their lamentations -- is likely ready to deal. What that may mean for companies like Century Aluminum and U.S. Steel isn't clear. Realistically speaking, Trump will secure some, but not all, of the concessions he'd like to see take shape. That will make China's steel more competitively priced again, but also stands to rev the global economy's engine again as well. * 7 Stocks to Buy Down 20% in December That's the rub for investors … determining where the optimal balance between protectionism and hands-off policies apply. The initial assumptions were clearly largely wrong. The tariffs gave U.S. steel and material companies the pricing power they've craved without quelling the economy … at least not yet. In that same vein, one can't help but wonder if a palatable end to the tariff war (the end so many investors say they want) could actually do more harm than good to metals stocks. Then again, the facts of the matter haven't been terribly relevant. Most of these names have been walloped on what have been erroneous assumptions. There's no reason that can't rebound on equally erroneous but opposite assumptions. Or, perhaps with X stock trading at only 5.5 times its trailing earnings and less than 4 times its forward-looking profits, shares are in a position to rebound no matter what lies ahead. Or maybe, just maybe, U.S. Steel's bottom line has far less to do with tariffs and far more to do with the economy than most investors are able to believe. After all, roughly 75% of the requests steel importers made to exclude their foreign steel purchases from 2018's new tariffs were granted by government regulators. The United States' steel companies have been doing just fine anyway. As of this writing, James Brumley did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities. You can follow him on Twitter, at @jbrumley. ### More From InvestorPlace * 2 Toxic Pot Stocks You Should Avoid * 10 Top Stock Picks From the Street's Best Analysts * 7 Tech Stocks Without China Exposure * 5 Strong-Buy Stocks That Crushed 2018 Compare Brokers The post Surprise! U.S. Steel Isn't as Vulnerable to Tariffs as Feared. appeared first on InvestorPlace.
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As we noted previously in this series, Alcoa (AA) and other aluminum producers—including Century Aluminum (CENX)—are having a terrible year as aluminum prices have plunged. With the recent fall in aluminum prices, several Chinese smelters are losing money.
In March, President Trump imposed a 10% tariff on aluminum imports. While Century Aluminum (CENX) responded positively to the move and announced a smelter restart a few days after the tariffs, Alcoa’s (AA) response was measured from the very beginning. The tariffs have affected Alcoa in several ways.
While President Trump’s actions have affected financial markets (SPY), aluminum deserves a special mention. Firstly, we saw a sell-off in aluminum prices after Section 232 tariffs on US steel and aluminum imports raised fears of a global trade war. Several economists raised concerns that Section 232 tariffs would lead to higher costs for US companies and the costs would eventually be borne by end consumers.
A market correction in the fourth quarter, spurred by a number of global macroeconomic concerns and rising interest rates ended up having a negative impact on the markets and many hedge funds as a result. The stocks of smaller companies were especially hard hit during this time as investors fled to investments seen as being […]
Yesterday, the United States lifted sanctions on RUSAL, the leading Russian aluminum producer. In April, when the sanctions were imposed, aluminum prices (XME) surged to their highest level since 2011. Falling aluminum prices have also led to negative price movements for aluminum producers, such as Alcoa (AA) and Century Aluminum (CENX).
In March, President Trump slapped tariffs on US steel and aluminum imports. While China doesn’t export much steel to the US (DIA), it does export a significant amount of aluminum. China (FXI) exported 536,000 metric tons of unwrought aluminum in November compared to 480,000 metric tons in October.
The last change in the short interest score occurred more than 1 month ago and implies that there has been little change in sentiment among investors who seek to profit from falling equity prices. Please view the full legal disclaimer and methodology information on pages 2-3 of the full report.