Cincinnati Financial Corporation (CINF)

Bought 3rd lot this morning as this has dropped. Can’t see the fear. 1Q loss of $1.226B after $1.303B reduction in equities still held. That’s called “mark to market”. Dow at year-end closing somewhere between 28,414 to 28,675 depending on exact date they closed their books. End of Q1, Dow between 18,831 and 22,208, again depending on closing date. Could be almost 10,000 pt. Swing. Same effect will happen only in favor at 6/30 with Dow up. Right now at 24,557. That could be almost 6,000 pt difference between Q1 and Q2. Also, DWP is up 10% and current AY Combined is 91.5% vs 92.7% last year, meaning more volume at more profit. This is a long term play, not a flip. Hang in and it will pay big.

Cincinnati Financial (CINF) Q3 Earnings Top, Revenues Up Y/Y
Cincinnati Financial Corporation (CINF - Free Report) reported third-quarter 2019 operating income of $1.08 per share, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 16.1%. Also, the bottom line improved 28.6% year over year.

Notably, the results reflected price increases and premium growth initiatives.

This is a straight up shake down. There is no way the insurance industry is going to foot the bill for businesses being shut down on the narrative that the virus equates to physical structural damage to the buildings they operate in. It is an incredibly weak argument that is going to be easily framed as absurd by one of the most lawyered industries on the planet. This dip is 100% smoke and mirrors on that basis...a smaller customer base when the dust settles as businesses fold or shift away from brick and mortar is a different, but much smaller, more legitimate argument. Bet against this stock at your own peril...I will happily collect my near 5% dividend in the meantime and cash out my chips for double my money a year or less from now.