Don’t think I am a supporter of unfettered free trade. I am totally with Trump on fair trade. Its hard to compete, especially with commodities, with companies or entire industries that are supported by their govts and can sell over here at a price that we cannot compete with. Not just labor costs, the regulations here are onerous. I came out of the glass industry, and years ago I was at a fiberglass plant where they showed me a finished ball of fiberglass being shipped in from China and said they could make it over there, ship it here, and sell it for less than the raw materials alone cost domestically. Cant compete with that, and that was pure Chinese govt support because I know how much it costs to produce that stuff and there ain’t no way that’s fair trade. The US has a trade deficit with just about everyone. Outside of tech we don’t export much. I think that’s why the EU was reduced to saying “you put tariffs on steel, we are going to put them on Bourbon.” Other than Jim Beam I wouldn’t be too worried. So as far as I am concerned, 232 is valid. Cant make tanks, guns, and ships when you don’t make steel, and I don’t think we can depend on China or anyone else for that matter to help us in that occasion.
Watching paint dry again.
Looks like shorts trying to keep tight control on this. Hope earnings blow it out of the water tomorrow and shorts get fried!
Hoping for a VIOLENT and CRUSHING Death BLOW to SHORTS !!
just have got the time to re-read the Q1 call transcript and would like to post the following quotes: 1.As for our revenues per ton, we saw year-over-year realizations decline to $79 per long ton from $84 per long ton due to 2016 carryover effects.,,, In the full-year 2016, iron ore averaged $58 per metric ton and customer-realized hot-rolled steel prices averaged $450 per short ton, considerably lower than what we've averaged thus far in 2017.-----some report says the new formula would give clf pellet price at above $90 fro Q2 due to HRC at $650 and 62% SBIO at average above $60. 2. Applying April's month-to-date IODEX average price of $71 per metric ton and the AMM hot-rolled coil price of $648 per short ton for the remainder of the year, we would expect a 2017 adjusted EBITDA of approximately $700 million.,,,we're set for a massively improved 2017 with $700 million of adjusted EBITDA and nearly $450 million of free cash flow generation----we know HRC price matches/or above the expectation so far. Just not sure about IODEX. But $700 mil seems feasible. 3. Another point, I have been showing loud and clear that if bond (56:41) prices are up, we take advantage. If bond (56:43) prices are down, we take advantage. If stock prices are up, we take advantage. If stock prices are low, I take advantage. ----we know clf had refinancing and dilution in March when stock price high and management bought shares when stock price low. What else clf can do? buy bonds at discount to lower debt? 4.we are going to end 2017 substantially below $1 billion in debt, more or less like 1 time EBITDA leverage. That's our goal for this year. Today is a little more than 1 time EBITDA, close to 2 times EBITDA. We'll be below 1 time or around 1 time coming January 1, 2018. ------with 1 time EBITDA and more than $1 earning/share, and the only independent IO company in US, pending infrastructure bill,,,what SP should be? 5.Now, it's our turn to have our own facility to produce our own DRI. Our first facility will be 1.5 million tons of DRI/HBI per year, and that will demand around 2 million tons of our own pellets that we already have and can produce, so we know where we're going to get.Like I said, we are already in a great balance sheet situation. And by the end of the year, we'll be in a better – even better position to do on our own. So, now, I prefer to decide things alone here with me – myself and my management team and my board, instead of sharing decision-making with a financial partner.-----no partner for DRI needed. This turns clf as a growing company.
Whisper number is .20 and 539.18 million ready to rocket ! Clf IS THE #1 SUPPLIER OF HIGH GRADE PELLETS IN THE USA..
Closed at high of day. Looking for much more upside as we get to earnings!
So here is a quandary about 232. Lets say it happens and Trump puts on tariffs on imported steel. Not sure its likely, I am not counting on it, but it may. OK, great for domestic steel makers, HRC pricing goes up and everyone here is happy. But over in China, where they are producing more steel than they need and now will be hit hard as the steel they have been shipping to other countries to ship here is not getting cut off. So their steel industry goes into the toilet. Which means SBIO pricing goes into the toilet. CLF has SBIO ties, and the market lumps them all together. So you have a negative impact on CLF from this, while a positive from HRC domestic pricing. Which one wins?
SP closed up 3% at $7.50. May we see $8 before the earnings by Wednesday? GO Cliffy!!
This was published tonight on Bloomberg. Nothing new to those informed here, but just having this story batted about is good for US Steel producers...and of course, CLF's
I would like to clarify my comment below. I am referring to short term, ie next week. Long term, a year or so out, this should be 20 plus a share especially if we get an infrastructure bill.
Also I see AKS has raised its carbon steel products by a minimum of 25 dollars a ton effective immediately.
Anyone has today's SB IO price? if do, please post it.
Well I will be, another positive article in the Fool putting Cliffs, along with the other ore makers, as good buys for the remainder of the year.
Someone posted some comments on Vale reducing their overall 2017 IO production, here is another excerpt from perhaps the same story...seems like they are finally coming around to LG's point of view!
"However, Vale noted that it anticipates to produce iron-ore at the lower end of the 360–380 Mt guidance range in 2017. The company stated that this estimation is in sync with its margin expansion strategy."
Seaborne IO FE 62% is at $67.14 today. Have a great day.
There was speculation from Bloomberg that there would be a 232 announcement during Trumps visit to Ohio tomorrow. Seeing as how AKS and X announce tomorrow is that a coincidence? Would be great if they announced significant tariffs and quotas before cliffs earnings which will blow past expectations anyway.