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Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (CLF)
NYSE - NYSE Delayed Price. Currency in USD
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What an incredible buying opportunity with HRC still going up and HRC futures looking like it will be above 1000 through the end of 2021. I’m going to have to dig up some cash to buy if it touches 16s . Every day at these high steel prices improves Cliffs bottom line , buy it forget about and guess what the price will be in 2 years . My guess is close to $ 40 by the start of 22 and well north of 50$ in 2 years with a nice dividend to boot .
They are there to ride out a storm that threatens to implode not only Gupta's multi-billion-pound business empire, but also the entire British steel industry, risking thousands of jobs and with very expensive ramifications for taxpayers.
Gupta's business, the Gupta Family Group Alliance (GFG), is a network that includes Liberty Steel, Britain's third-largest steel producer and operator of 12 works across the UK.
With unfortunate timing, he has been begging British taxpayers to bail out this business with a £170 million cash injection just as his wife sees fit to revamp the family's multi-million-pound Belgravia mansion.
Why the begging bowl? Because GFG has become entangled in the murky affairs of Greensill Capital, the bank founded by Australian Lex Greenhill, 44, erstwhile friend and boss of former Prime Minister David Cameron.
In February, Greensill Capital collapsed — leaving a gaping hole in the finances of Gupta's British business, Liberty Steel. (Greensill had been Liberty's main lender.)
Gupta has asked UK taxpayers for £170 million to cover operating expenses. But the Government has refused, citing GFG's 'very opaque structure'. Business Secretary Kwasi Kwarteng tartly warned: 'We feel there was no guarantee [the money] would stay in the UK.'
Parliament's business select committee is launching an investigation and the Government is considering 'all options', including nationalisation, to keep Liberty afloat — though unions have warned it is 'far from clear' how this would work.
Greensill's collapse not only threatens Liberty's survival, it has also dragged David Cameron into a very ugly situation.
Cameron once declared that political lobbying was 'the next big scandal waiting to happen', bemoaning 'the far-too-cosy relationship between politics, government, business and money' that has 'tainted our politics'.
Yet, as the Mail has reported, Cameron has been exposed for personally lobbying on behalf of Greensill Capital, for which he was a highly paid adviser and enjoyed share options that — until the bank imploded — stood to enrich him by tens of millions of pounds.
It has been revealed that Cameron texted Chancellor Rishi Sunak begging for Greensill to be given a bigger role in providing Covid bailout loans. Moreover, it has also emerged that, during his time in No. 10, Cameron provided Greensill himself with extensive access to Government, including a bespoke Cabinet Office email address and business card.
Inevitably, this has raised serious questions about fair competition, given that Greensill's company signed contracts with public bodies, including the NHS.
Cameron has been cleared by a lobbying watchdog, but questions persist about his behaviour. He has steadfastly refused to comment.
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But back to Gupta and his dealings with Greensill.
Born in Punjab, India, Sanjeev was the latest in a line of Gupta steel heirs. At 14, he was sent to St Edmund's private school in Canterbury, Kent, and reportedly 'fell in love' with England.
Portentously, he was thrown out of his rooms at Trinity College, Cambridge (where he was studying Economics and Business), after registering a commodities business there in a breach of the University's charitable status.
In 1992, he founded Liberty, which was soon generating revenue of £1 million per day — and from there his empire grew throughout Asia and Africa.
In 2000, he fell in love with his company treasurer, Nicola Crumpton. The couple wed in 2008, and lived in a £1 million penthouse in Marylebone, London, before relocating to the low-tax haven of Dubai, where Gupta's business interests were burgeoning.
Gupta has fondly said of Nicola: 'She used to look after my money; now she spends it.'
The couple returned to Britain in 2015 and continued their acquisitive property spree by purchasing Wyelands, a £3 million Grade-II-listed mansion near Chepstow in Monmouthshire. They also own a £19 million Italianate mansion overlooking Sydney Harbour, as well as a flat and offices in Mayfair next to 5 Hertford Street, the private members' club and watering hole of magnates and politicians.
In 2016, he paid £330 million for a package of acquisitions in the Scottish Highlands, including two power plants, a smelter and 100,000 acres of estate — which includes the foothills of Ben Nevis.
Sanjeev is the fifth-largest private landowner in Britain — much of Ben Nevis, the UK’s tallest mountain, belongs to him. (Ben Nevis, Scotland's highest mountain) +8
Sanjeev is the fifth-largest private landowner in Britain — much of Ben Nevis, the UK's tallest mountain, belongs to him. (Ben Nevis, Scotland's highest mountain)
The tycoon also has a fondness for private jets, one of which, a 2015 Bombardier Global 6000, was put up for sale two years ago for £31 million after Gupta allegedly defaulted on a loan h
To generate a possible SP by year end, several variables need to be defined. EBITDA is just a start. WS reacts to Earnings, not EBITDA, so you have to crunch the numbers, which has lots of pitfalls (line item assumptions). P/E is another challenge. WS sets that based on future expectations. Their not kind to Steel or Minerals. The Table below, with the current SP, clearly shows how WS sees the big 4 Steel Companies:Company---SP-------Est.Earnings---P/ECLF--------17.53--------$2.90--------6.04X-----------21.37--------$3.55--------6.01STLD------50.38--------$6.53--------7.72NUE-------78.74--------$9.85--------7.99To move CLF's SP into the 30's, 40's or 50's, as some here hope, it will take over $6 in earnings and a P/E move to above #$%$ possible!
HRC steel futures up big today. ALL outer months hit new highs. Sept. futures up big to $1249. Even Dec. above $1000 for the first time. AS I HAVE SAID MANY TIMES, the outer months KEEP rising. CLF guidance just two weeks ago was based on $975 HRC. CLF's guidance got the stock briefly above $20. If analysts were smart enough to dig deep enough into CLF's LIKELY earnings for 2021, they would find $4-5 is a more reasonable estimate. CLF will be $22-25 within 30 days. STRONG BUY!
Next thing you know it'll be Memorial Day, Dec HRC will be $1100+, LG will have most Q4 contracts wrapped up and beginning pre-negotiations with the autos, and Timna will still be calling for sub-$600 steel...
She's the (sky is falling) Peter Schiff of Steel
Lucas Pipes was going to put the 1 year target at 50 and look like a genius. But instead he decided to put out new targets every few weeks up a few bucks higher and be right 10 times as the stock goes to $50.
Cleveland-Cliffs's PT raised by B. Riley to $22.00. buy rating
CLF is ready to RUN. HRC futures SUPER STRONG two days in a row and CLF down both days. Earnings on April 22 should be GREAT but Q2 and beyond OUT OF THIS WORLD. Please don't cry later this month that you should have bought more. YOU HAVE YOUR CHANCE !!! Strong Buy ! As I've said Multiple times the outer months will keep rising Sept futures now pushing $1300 !!!! Dec. up $35 today to $1050. CLF is going to coin so much money they may need another auditor to count it all !!!
I have been mulling over this years amazing steel prices. Been following some of the feedback from longs that understand how to run a business and how to project your business. LG for many people that drive negative press on him, because of how he talks on conference calls. Over the years, LG would no matter how bad it is with steel prices he would find something good to say about his strategy and CLF future. This year will be a gift from the gods. All of LG moves will pay off huge. I am expecting that his last report on projections on quarterly and year end numbers are way lower than they will be. I bet they will be 20% higher or maybe 25 %. He is a man of pride ,and a fighter that will take jabs in every round. But at the end he will go for the knock out. Shorts he is coming for you and it will be a damaging hit. I have 45k share and plan on adding an additional 20 K on Monday. I am so so excited to see if this all plays out. I have put a ton of money on LG. Best of luck to all that believe in hard work pays off with a few godly breaks.
Let’s finish the EBITDA guessing game.
First-quarter 2021 adjusted EBITDA* of approximately $500 million.
We know this is based on 4 MT of steel sold If Koci is to be believed on the CC’s.
This does not include any pellets or HBI sold to third parties for obvious reasons including The Soo locks opened March 25, 2021 and its safe to assume they replenished themselves first for pellets and HBI.
Does this include PP data?
FWIW the mesabi metallics website, which used to actually have stuff up on it, is now no longer... "Page 404 error"
Timna & BOA released results from a new survey yesterday. Good current news, but they are still dogging the 2nd half. Even mentions Cliffy.
Demand strength is real
Steel buyers at a “virtual brunch” Thursday agreed demand was very strong, with no
signs of a slowdown and limited pushback to higher prices. Service center and
manufacturer participants said backlogs were near record levels, with strength across
most end markets and more than restocking activity. Some anticipated slowdown in
activity didn’t materialize, but material supplies were a challenge. Buyers did not foresee
risk to demand momentum, and were more concerned about steel availability than price.
Steel still scarce, but supply improving
While availability continued to be a challenge, several steel buyers said they were
recently able to secure more tons and mills were offering maximum quantities again on
min/max contacts. ... Sub-80% reported utilization was a mystery, especially given recent restarts
and new capacity. ... Recent restarts from U.S. Steel’s Gary complex and Cliffs at
Cleveland and Middletown likely were tied up meeting auto contract demand, in our
view. Cliffs may be building slabs ahead of a 45-60-day planned Indiana Harbor East #7
outage in Q2, limiting finished supply near term but smoothing production into Q2.
Imports poised to surge in Q2/Q3
One trader said imports could be headed to a record high (Exhibit 2) even
considering 25% tariffs.
Buyers eye gradual px declines; history says sharp drop
Historically steel prices correct sharply. Current prices are panic driven and a balanced market should be at least $400-$500/t lower, in our view, with imports, restarts and mid-year capacity additions driving a
Obviously, the HFTs have a sell on the reopening trade and buy the stay at home stocks this morning. Comical.
Analysts have rarely been right on CLF. In fact, not in the last number of years lol. Anyone following their advisory might as well read the comic section to the newspaper. The reason, they're following a script that no longer applies. Passe in fact.
Won't stay below $20for too long guys . Every other country out there is looking at doin a major Infrastructure spending to boost their covid hit economies and employment. At least a total of 5-15 trillion globally. Don't be tricked to sell cheap.
Well, Well, What do we have here today? A QUADRUPLE bottom. A high bar Flyer. The best a stock can get with low volume! Can we see a SLING SHOT FROM HERE? Watch it SOAR!
Interesting article. But the 10 year outlook is woefully under ANALysed. HBI isnt even factored. 17MT at just $100 fcf is $1.7 billion. That's $3/sh under current float. How do they prognosticate 10 years out? In the Steel industry???? Lets just keep it to 12 months or so.
Cleveland-Cliffs will be the largest flat-rolled sheet and plate steel footprint in North America with approximately 16.5mn short tons (st) of combined flat-rolled shipments in 2019. Comparatively, Electric arc furnace (EAF) steelmaker Nucor, the largest shipper of flat-rolled products in 2019, shipped 12.7mn st of sheet and plate products.
Cleveland-Cliffs expects the combined company to more than double its current exposure to the automotive market, from more than 3mn st/yr to over 7mn st/yr.
It's amazing how far off the analysts were off on the steel prices (and still are). Using NUE as an example (they have the highest number of analysts for a steel stock), their 2021 earnings estimate has risen from $3.60/sh 3 months ago to now $9.32/sh. They are still behind and it looks like they are even much further behind for Cliffs.
Talk to any contractor, any type, right now. They will all say the same story. Prices for ALL materials are going UP; at a very fast clip. It’s not just Steel. It’s everything. Go to bid on a project. The estimates may get your nervous system elevated. The 1st wave of Inflation is Here!
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