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India's soymeal exports in 2019/20 could plunge to their lowest in four years due to faltering demand from top buyer Iran and as a rally in local soybean prices make shipments pricey for overseas buyers, industry officials said. Lower exports from India will help major growers like the United States, Argentina and Brazil increase sales of the animal feed to Asian buyers like Bangladesh, Vietnam and Japan.
(Bloomberg) -- Oil rebounded from the previous session’s loss, though the outlook remained clouded by rising U.S. stockpiles and concern that OPEC and its allies aren’t taking enough action to balance the market.Futures added 0.6% to trade near $59 a barrel. American gasoline inventories surged the most since January as demand slumped to a three-year low, and crude stockpiles unexpectedly increased, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Deeper production cutbacks announced by OPEC and its partners last week won’t prevent a surplus in early 2020, the International Energy Agency said.U.S. crude inventories have swelled above their five-year average as surging shale output drives nationwide production to record levels. Focus now shifts to trade ahead of a Sunday deadline for the imposition of U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods. Last week, the 24 producers in the OPEC+ coalition -- led by Saudi Arabia and Russia -- agreed a package of cutbacks amounting to 2.1 million barrels a day.“A week ago, OPEC surprised with less oil than expected,” said Olivier Jakob, managing director at consultants Petromatrix GmbH in Zug, Switzerland. “A week later the DOE counters with more oil than expected.”West Texas Intermediate for January delivery rose 35 cents to $59.11 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange as of 11:02 a.m. London time. The contract lost 48 cents to close at $58.76 on Wednesday, slipping from the highest level since Sept. 17.See also: The Wall Street Bankers Who Burst Aramco’s $2 Trillion BubbleBrent for February settlement rose 58 cents, or 0.9%, to $64.30 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe Exchange. The contract fell 1% to close at $63.72 on Wednesday. The global benchmark crude traded at a $5.30 premium to WTI for the same month.U.S. crude stockpiles unexpectedly increased by 822,000 barrels last week, climbing for sixth time in seven weeks, the EIA said. Gasoline inventories expanded by 5.4 million barrels last week, more than double the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey before the EIA data. Petroleum products supplied, an indicator of demand, dropped to 18.4 million barrels a day, the lowest level since December 2016.\--With assistance from James Thornhill.To contact the reporters on this story: Ann Koh in Singapore at firstname.lastname@example.org;Grant Smith in London at email@example.comTo contact the editors responsible for this story: James Herron at firstname.lastname@example.org, Christopher Sell, Helen RobertsonFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
Oil prices rose on Thursday, recouping some of the previous session's losses after OPEC forecast a supply deficit next year and the U.S. Federal Reserve said the economic outlook was favourable. Prices had fallen on Wednesday after a report showed an unexpected increase in U.S. crude inventories. The market picked up on Thursday, although the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries offered different prospects for the oil market in 2020.
Global oil inventories could rise sharply despite an agreement by OPEC and its allies to deepen output cuts as well as lower expected production by the United States and other non-OPEC nations, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Thursday. "Despite the additional curbs ... and a reduction in our forecast of 2020 non-OPEC supply growth to 2.1 million barrels per day (bpd), global oil inventories could build by 700,000 bpd in Q1 2020," the Paris-based IEA said in a monthly report. The group's production is also set to outstrip the IEA's projection of demand for its crude by 700,000 bpd in the first half of next year and a full million bpd in the second half.
(Bloomberg) -- Global oil markets still face a surplus next year even if OPEC and its partners deliver newly-announced production cuts in full, the International Energy Agency said.Oil inventories may accumulate by 700,000 barrels a day in the first quarter even if the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies implement the entire cutback of 2.1 million barrels a day agreed last week, the IEA said in a monthly report. Supplies outside the group, led by U.S. shale, continue to grow much faster than world demand.While crude prices climbed to a 12-week high in New York after OPEC+ surprised traders with their latest intervention, they remain below $60 a barrel amid concern that the additional output curbs still won’t be enough. The U.S. briefly became a net exporter of oil three months ago, underscoring the challenge OPEC faces from America’s shale boom.“The market has done its own sums and the reaction to oil’s new deal has so far been muted,” said the Paris-based agency, which advises most of the world’s major economies.The extra OPEC+ curbs would translate into an actual reduction from current levels of 532,000 barrels a day, the IEA said. Implementing that fully may be a tall order, as some producers like Iraq and Nigeria have barely made the cutbacks they promised to enact this year.A change to the terms of the OPEC+ agreement, which now exempts light oil known as condensate produced by the non-OPEC members, could also undermine the coalition’s efforts. Condensate production in those countries, such as Russia and Azerbaijan, has the potential to increased from its current level of about 1.5 million barrels a day, according to the IEA.Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s biggest member, has already made considerable progress in fulfilling its output commitments, including additional voluntary reductions announced at the close of the OPEC meeting on Dec. 6. The kingdom pumped 9.9 million barrels a day in November, the IEA estimated.“The overall effectiveness of the OPEC+ agreement depends on the willingness of all its parties to fully comply, including those whose compliance so far has been less rigorous,” the agency said.OPEC and its partners are getting some solace from a recent recovery in oil demand. Global consumption increased at the strongest rate in a year during the third quarter, expanding by 900,000 barrels a day, according to the report. That’s almost twice the pace seen in the second quarter.Demand is set to accelerate further in 2020, when it will expand by 1.2 million barrels a day -- about 1.2% -- to average 101.5 million barrels a day, the IEA predicts.OPEC may also be reassured that supply from some of its rivals, such as the U.S., Brazil and Ghana, is increasing less quickly than the IEA previously forecast. The agency lowered its projections for non-OPEC production growth in 2020 by about 200,000 barrels a day.Yet supplies outside OPEC will nonetheless expand much more vigorously than world demand, swelling by 2.1 million barrels a day next year as a new tide of American shale-oil is joined by offshore projects once considered unviable in an era of constrained prices, from Brazil, Norway and Guyana.As a result, the surplus in global markets may swell to as much as 1 million barrels a day during the second quarter, the agency said. That poses a considerable challenge for the cartel and its allies, who will meet again in early March to consider their next move.To contact the reporter on this story: Grant Smith in London at email@example.comTo contact the editors responsible for this story: James Herron at firstname.lastname@example.org, Christopher SellFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
(Bloomberg) -- Explore what’s moving the global economy in the new season of the Stephanomics podcast. Subscribe via Apple Podcast, Spotify or Pocket Cast.Palm oil’s searing rally likely forced many buyers from India to the sidelines in November, with purchases by the world’s biggest importer dropping to a five-month low. Sunflower oil imports jumped.Shipments of palm oil shrank almost 11% from a month earlier to 696,000 tons, a second month of decline and the lowest since June, according to the median of five estimates in a Bloomberg survey of processors, brokers and analysts. Imports totaled 691,827 tons in November last year. The Solvent Extractors’ Association of India may release its data next week.The world’s most-consumed cooking oil has soared about 50% since the middle of July on concerns about falling output and growing demand for biofuel, making shipments expensive for the South Asian nation. Lower purchases by India may boost inventories in top producers Indonesia and Malaysia, and potentially put a lid on prices.“The speed at which prices rose wasn’t expected by the market,” said G. G. Patel, managing partner of GGN Research, an agricultural research company. “The disparity in prices was huge and that reduced imports.”Futures climbed to the highest intraday level since early 2017 this week, and hovered near that Thursday. Palm also hit parity with soybean oil for the first time since 2011, which reduced its appeal compared with other oils. The tropical oil has traded at a average discount of $112 a ton over the past year.While soybean oil purchases, mostly from the U.S., Brazil and Argentina, slumped about 58% from a month earlier to 166,000 tons, sunflower oil imports jumped 62% to 258,000 tons, the survey showed. Total vegetable oil imports dropped about 21% to 1.09 million tons, according to the survey.NOTE: Figures in metric tons(Adds Thursday move in fifth paragraph.)To contact the reporter on this story: Pratik Parija in New Delhi at email@example.comTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Anna Kitanaka at firstname.lastname@example.org, Atul Prakash, James PooleFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
Malaysia's industrial production index rose 0.3% in October from a year earlier, its slowest pace in more than six years, as mining output declined, government data showed on Thursday. Factory output in October was far below the 1.4% expansion forecast for the month by analysts in a Reuters poll, and was the slowest since February 2013, when output had fallen 4.4%. Manufacturing output, however, was up 2.2% year-on-year while the electricity generation sector rose 0.5%, the data showed.
Malaysian palm oil futures gained on Thursday, supported by concerns over a shortfall in supplies early next year due to lack of rains and lower use of fertilizer. The benchmark palm oil contract for February delivery on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange edged up 7 ringgit to 2,885 ringgit ($691.85) by 0241 GMT. Palm gained for seven out of eight sessions following a two-month rally that has seen prices climbed to the highest since February 2017.
2020 could see a number of high-profile oil auctions, and where 2019 was a mixed bag in terms of asset assets, this year is shaping up to be more promising
The impact of IMO 2020 — the requirement promulgated by the International Maritime Organization (IMO) that ships begin using lower-sulfur fuel on Jan. 1 or equip their ships with scrubbers to remove sulfur from engine exhaust — may be less disruptive than was feared, according to the chairman of the U.S. Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources. "There is still some disagreement over what those exact impacts will be," said Sen. Lisa Murkowski, R-Alaska.
OPEC’s crude oil production declined by 193,000 bpd in November from October, as the cartel’s leader Saudi Arabia cut production ahead of the OPEC+ meeting
Based on the early price action and the current price at 3135.00, the direction of the December E-mini S&P; 500 Index into the close on Wednesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to a pair of downtrending Gann angles at 3144.00 and 3130.00.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) topped out at $13,868.44 in June of this year, thereby completing a 343.2% advance off the December 2018 corrective low of $3,128.89. That low ended a 1-year 84.3% decline off the bull market bubble top of around $19,892, reached in December 2017.
(Bloomberg) -- Japan needs to overcome what United Nations Secretary General Antonio Guterres labeled a “coal addiction,” and the issue is causing mixed feelings among its officials attending climate change talks this week in Madrid.The COP25 meeting in Spain may boost awareness among the Japanese public of the need to reduce dependency from coal energy, Japan Environment Minister Shinjiro Koizumi told reporters on Wednesday.“In Japan, coal power is not seen as problematic as the international community does,” Koizumi said in Japan’s first address to the press at the gathering in years. “There is a plan to build coal-fired plants in Japan, but with that fact in mind I have some complex feelings about attending COP25.”Japan has come under fire for its continued commitment to coal. The dirtiest fossil fuel makes up about one third of the country’s electricity generation. It’s also the only economy in the Group of Seven still building new coal plants. It’s also a major exporter of coal plant technology.The country boosted its reliance on coal-fired power in the wake of the 2011 Fukushima disaster, which shuttered its fleet of nuclear reactors that accounted for a quarter of the nation’s electricity generation. Japan currently gets roughly a third of its power from coal amid public resistance to restarting the reactors.The Asian nation has 46.5 gigawatts of existing coal capacity, according to BloombergNEF and another 11 gigawatts in planned. A recent report from Carbon Tracker said Japan faces $71 billion in stranded assets should it pursue coal as a primary source of energy.“We can’t make a declaration of phasing out of coal or fossil fuels right away,” Koizumi said. “We have to come up with more positive signals and I thought we could do that as the government of Japan, but until COP25, the coordination hasn’t produced such political signal.”So far, 28 local governments including Tokyo, Kyoto and Yokohama have joined a global initiative to get to net zero carbon emissions by 2050, Koizumi said.“I believe that we have to go further,” he said. “I will report to the prime minister about what I felt, I have a feeling we can take some positive actions --please watch for that.”(Updates with background on Fukushima accident in fifth paragraph.)To contact the reporters on this story: Laura Millan Lombrana in Santiago at email@example.com;Jeremy Hodges in London at firstname.lastname@example.orgTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Aaron Rutkoff at email@example.com, Reed Landberg, Jeremy HodgesFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
Venezuela’s oil production jumped by 20 percent last month as many oil buyers braved U.S. sanctions to do business with the country, a development that is particularly interesting with IMO 2020 looming
Crude oil markets pulled back a bit during the trading session on Wednesday, reaching towards the round figure underneath before bouncing slightly. That being said, there are a lot of crosswinds right now when it comes to crude oil.
Natural gas markets rallied a bit during the trading session on Wednesday, as we continue to look to fill that gap from a couple of days ago. At this point, the market is likely to see a lot of choppiness, it is colder temperatures come and go, that will move this market.
Crude oil prices have slipped 1% on Wednesday, after a key crude inventory report surprised the markets with a surplus. We could see further movement from crude, as the Federal Reserve releases its rate decision at 19:00 GMT.
OPEC on Wednesday pointed to a small deficit in the oil market next year due to restraint by Saudi Arabia even before the latest supply pact with other producers takes effect, suggesting a tighter market than previously thought. In a monthly report, OPEC said demand for its crude will average 29.58 million barrels per day (bpd) next year. OPEC pumped less oil in November than the average 2020 requirement, having in previous months supplied more.
The direction of the crude oil market on Wednesday will likely be determined by trader reaction to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s weekly inventories report, due to be released at 15:30 GMT. It is expected to show a 2.9 million draw down. If the report shows a build like the API report then look for a steep decline.