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  • Is ISIS Back?

    Is ISIS Back?

    As the Syria debate rages on, a number of state actors and terrorist organizations are preparing to duke it out for the country’s oil supply

  • Oil Prices Set to Climb? Investors Aren’t Betting on It
    The Wall Street Journal

    Oil Prices Set to Climb? Investors Aren’t Betting on It

    Bets on rising U.S. oil prices have hit a nine-month low, underscoring investors’ concerns that a slowing economy will dent demand for crude at a time when the world is awash in oil.

  • Ecuador resumes oil exports curbed by protests

    Ecuador resumes oil exports curbed by protests

    Ecuador on Sunday said it had resumed crude oil exports curbed by violent protests that forced several wells in the Amazon to halt operations. The country was hit by 12 days of demonstrations, led by indigenous groups, against fuel price hikes until President Lenin Moreno reached a deal with protest leaders on October 13. "Oil production has recovered, so the operation of the Trans-Ecuadorian Oil Pipeline System (SOTE) has been standardized," Petroecuador, the national oil company, said in a statement.

  • Canada election puts spotlight on the oil-climate divide

    Canada election puts spotlight on the oil-climate divide

    On the eve of Canada's federal elections, Conservatives and Liberals are neck-and-neck in the polls. "I'd like to see the oil and gas back up, because Trudeau's trying to shut it all down," said 71-year-old Sarah Wall.

  • Saudi Arabia's Best Bet Is to Crash the Price of Oil

    Saudi Arabia's Best Bet Is to Crash the Price of Oil

    (Bloomberg Opinion) -- Saudi Arabia should give up trying to manage the global crude market and return to the pump-at-will policy it briefly adopted in 2014 under its longest serving oil minister Ali Al-Naimi.In the mercantilist world in which we now live, where decisions are based on narrow national interest, it makes no sense for the world's lowest-cost oil producer to subsidize shale and prop up other high-cost suppliers.Of course when it does, oil prices will crash just as they did in 1986 when the country finally abandoned fixed official selling prices. And then, in the aftermath, global investors will get in a flap about all things Saudi: the IPO of the kingdom’s state oil company, the financing required to fund a young and under-employed population, Mohammed bin Salman’s ambitious Vision 2030 plan to transform the economy away from its dependence on oil.Despite the risks, it’s time to admit that market management is failing, even though Saudi Arabia and it “allies” say that it isn’t.The OPEC+ agreement was meant to drain excess stockpiles in six months. But we are now approaching a fourth year of Saudi Arabia leading a global alliance of producers in trying — and failing — to push up oil prices in a sustainable way.For a while it appeared that the cuts were having the desired effect. Inventories came down and Brent prices rose from about $45 a barrel in June 2017 to reach a high of $86 in October 2018. But they swiftly fell back towards $50 and a second round of cuts that began in January has failed to keep them above $60. Even the temporary loss of more than half of Saudi Arabia’s oil production — and most of the world’s spare capacity — in an attack on two of the kingdom’s biggest processing facilities failed to lift prices for more than a few days.The latest data from OPEC itself — along with the International Energy Agency and the U.S. Energy Administration — show the failure of the policy. All three see global oil inventories building in the first half of next year in the face of what is starting to look like America's forever trade war. The global gridlock has also prompted a reduction in forecasts for growth in oil demand this year and next. The average level of Saudi oil production in the first eight months of 2019 was the lowest since 2014 — even excluding the dip caused by the Sept. 14 attacks on the kingdom’s oil processing infrastructure. And it will have to come down further next year if the kingdom wants to continue trying to manage the market.Meanwhile Russia, the kingdom’s leading partner in the OPEC+ group of countries that came together to manage supply, has seen its output continue to rise each year, even as it has come to dominate OPEC+ policymaking.Saudi Arabia should let American shale drillers take the strain. After all, aren't they the producers of the marginal barrel of crude now? As long as Saudi Arabia and its cohorts continue to restrict output and subsidize shale they are merely delaying an answer to the question.It’s time to discover a true price of oil.Saudi Arabia will learn to work with this over time, just as it did after 1986. And it will probably find that that price isn’t as low as the kingdom fears. Eventually, shale producers will be forced to cut back — or they won’t.If they are forced to cut, then Saudi Arabia will get the price support it craves, without having to lower its own output. But if shale production can just keep going up and up, even in a lower-price environment, then it proves just as emphatically that the Saudi-led policy of market management is a busted flush anyway.Will they do it? I doubt it.Current oil minister Abdulaziz Bin Salman sees it as his job “to ensure that the oversupply doesn’t continue.” December’s OPEC and OPEC+ meetings will likely yield the promise of further output cuts and Saudi Arabia will pump even less next year in a vain attempt to prop up prices. But it would be nice to believe that they are capable of change.To contact the author of this story: Julian Lee at jlee1627@bloomberg.netTo contact the editor responsible for this story: Melissa Pozsgay at mpozsgay@bloomberg.netThis column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.Julian Lee is an oil strategist for Bloomberg. Previously he worked as a senior analyst at the Centre for Global Energy Studies.For more articles like this, please visit us at©2019 Bloomberg L.P.

  • EIA Inventory Data: Will Natural Gas Decline Further?
    Market Realist

    EIA Inventory Data: Will Natural Gas Decline Further?

    EIA inventory data showed a buildup of 104 Bcf (billion cubic feet) in natural gas inventories. The EIA reported the natural gas inventory on October 17.


    The Energy Landscape Is Changing Dramatically. Here's How to Play It

    OPEC’s role is diminishing as new energy supplies emerge, including renewables and cleantech solutions. Here's how to play a changing landscape.

  • AUD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – Short-Squeeze Could Take Aussie to .6863 into Close
    FX Empire

    AUD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – Short-Squeeze Could Take Aussie to .6863 into Close

    Given the current upside momentum, the next upside target into the close is .6863. The AUD/USD could pause at this price, but also accelerate into .6879. This is the last potential resistance angle before the .6895 main top.

  • Natural Gas Price Fundamental Daily Forecast – Short-Covering Fueled by Expectations of Cold Temperatures
    FX Empire

    Natural Gas Price Fundamental Daily Forecast – Short-Covering Fueled by Expectations of Cold Temperatures

    The main trend is down, but momentum has been trending higher since October 11, following the formation of the closing price reversal bottom at $2.388. Look for an upside bias on a sustained move over $2.478, and for an acceleration to the upside if buyers can take out $2.564 and $2.568. A downside bias will develop if $2.478 fails.

  • S.Africa to increase coal-fired energy, sparking climate outcry

    S.Africa to increase coal-fired energy, sparking climate outcry

    South Africa's government announced Friday that the country would increase its use of coal-fired energy, provoking outrage from climate groups. Africa's biggest polluter and most industrialised nation was facing rolling blackouts -- in part due to ageing coal plants -- as the government released its energy blueprint for the next decade. Mineral Resources Minister Gwede Mantashe unveiled the long-awaited Integrated Resource Plan, saying "coal will continue to play a significant role in electricity generation".

  • Loonie posts 11-week high as investors weigh election uncertainty

    Loonie posts 11-week high as investors weigh election uncertainty

    The Canadian dollar climbed to its strongest in more than two months against a broadly weaker U.S. counterpart on Friday but gains for the currency were tempered by an uncertain outlook for Canada's federal election on Monday. Polls show Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's Liberals are locked in a tie with the opposition Conservatives and will not capture enough seats for a majority. "I think there is probably some squaring up ahead of that event (the vote)," said Mark McCormick, North American head of FX strategy at TD Securities.

  • Crude Pauses After Punching Above $54
    FX Empire

    Crude Pauses After Punching Above $54

    Crude prices have leveled off on Friday. Crude took advantage of dollar weakness on Thursday, climbing 2.0 percent.

  • Reuters

    UPDATE 1-Russia sells crude at record premiums to Asia after freight rates surge

    SINGAPORE/MOSCOW, Oct 18 (Reuters) - Russia, the world's No. 2 oil producer, has become an unintended beneficiary of U.S. sanctions after an embargo on Chinese ships drove up tanker freight rates, spurring record premiums for Russian crude that takes just days to arrive in North Asia. Demand for key Russian oil grades sold in Asia has been strong in the past month after an attack on key oil processing facilities in Saudi Arabia drove up prices for spot crude while Asian refiners are processing more low-sulphur grades to meet shippers' demand for cleaner fuels from 2020. Soaring freight rates in the past two weeks prompted Asian buyers to bid up for cargoes that ship over shorter distances such as oil from Russia.

  • Adani awards rail contract to support Australian thermal coal mine

    Adani awards rail contract to support Australian thermal coal mine

    India's Adani Enterprises has awarded a contract to an Australian rail company as the conglomerate steps up infrastructure spending to support its new thermal coal mine in Queensland state. The A$100 million ($68.30 million) contract was awarded to privately held Martinus Rail, based in the regional city of Rockhampton, Adani said in a statement on Friday. Adani Mining Chief Executive Lucas Dow said more than A$450 million worth of contracts had already been awarded on the Carmichael Project, the majority to regional Queensland areas.

  • FX Empire

    US Stock Market Overview – Stock Rise Driven by Healthcare; Energy Shares Slip

    While most of the financial have beat the street, technology shares have been less upbeat. IBM reported earnings on Wednesday after the closing bell that were weaker than expected while Netflix beat but the number of new users missed expectations. CSX reported better than expected earnings and painting an upbeat picture of the US economy.

  • Oil, diamonds and nuclear power: Russia eyes Africa business

    Oil, diamonds and nuclear power: Russia eyes Africa business

    While Russia has traditionally focused on arms and grain exports to Africa, it is now looking to broaden its activities and influence. Russia is one of the world's top hydrocarbon producers and exporters through energy giants like Gazprom, Rosneft and Lukoil. Gazprom is working in Algeria, where it has discovered three gas fields, as well as in Libya, though its activities there have largely stalled since the war in 2011.

  • Reuters

    CANADA FX DEBT-Loonie notches 11-week high as 'risk-on' boosts commodity currencies

    Global stocks rose after Britain reached a deal to avoid a disorderly divorce from the European Union that could have hurt the global economy. "You can put most of it (the Canadian dollar rally) down to the general risk-on sentiment that we've seen benefit commodity currencies," said Mark Chandler, head of Canadian fixed income and currency strategy at RBC Capital Markets. Canada, like Australia and New Zealand, is a major commodities exporter, so its economy could benefit from an improved global growth outlook.


    Trump’s Impossible Biofuel Dilemma

    The Trump administration has been in the middle of a constant battle between farmers and the oil industry over the ethanol market, and both sides are fed up of the President’s broken promises

  • FX Empire

    Crude Oil Price Forecast – Crude Oil Markets Finding Support

    The crude oil markets went back and forth during the trading session on Thursday, as we have gotten the inventory figures out of the way. There is structural support underneath, so it does look like the buyers are still around.


    Oil Nosedives As EIA Confirms Huge Inventory Build

    Oil prices fell on Thursday as the EIA confirmed a large crude oil build for the week ending October 11

  • Benzinga

    This Day In Market History: OPEC Cutbacks Send Oil Prices Skyrocketing

    While Israel and its Western friends routed an attack by the non-OPEC states of Egypt and Syria, Arab OPEC leaders leveraged economic power to bolster their peers. The price of oil initially popped 70%.

  • Palm oil body to wield stick to get consumer goods giants to go green

    Palm oil body to wield stick to get consumer goods giants to go green

    A palm oil industry watchdog will adopt rules next month that will impose fines on consumer goods companies like Unilever and Nestle if they don't start buying more green palm oil to help curb deforestation in Southeast Asia, the regulating body said. Producers of palm oil, a commodity used in everything from ice cream to lipstick, are blamed for destroying millions of hectares of forest in Southeast Asia, in part by using slash-and-burn techniques that blanketed Singapore, Malaysia and Indonesia in smog in September. The growers, though, say palm oil buyers like Unilever , Nestle , Procter & Gamble Co and PepsiCo share responsibility because they don't buy enough sustainably produced oil, undermining efforts to reward those who adopt greener practises and reduce deforestation.