steady as she goes .........the biggest obstacle ahead is the debt .......being a real burden at interest rates that are way too high ......if they can renegotiate or refinance ........the final piece of this puzzle will be in place .......the new management has done a yeoman job and luckily avoided a bankruptcy or takeover at pennies on the dollar .......either way they saved our company ......my guess the quarter will be very positive along with the 3rd quarter.........price should exceed $6.00 to $6.50 (within 90 days)....watch the call activity ......
For Q2, my analysis reflects the gulf coast 2-1-1 refining spread improved about $1.85/barrel over Q1. So, I would expect some refining margin improvement despite the turnaround at Superior in addition to some continued growth in the specialty products division. All in all, I am looking for adjusted EBITDA around $95MM for Q2. Low/High, I can’t be sure. However, if this occurs, this would result in adjusted EBITDA for the 1st ½ of 2017 or roughly $175MM. Further, this would appear repeatable in the 2nd ½ of 2017 with Q3 a bit improved over Q2 with the maintenance at Superior in the rearview mirror, and a similar Q4 as Q1 taking into account the cyclical refining margins. Therefore, for 2017, it is possible that we could see adjusted EBITDA back over $350MM, and with all the cost saving initiatives now in place and more to come, this type a year may become the norm going forward in a similar modest commodity pricing environment. For reference, the last time this company had adjusted EBITDA over $300MM was 2014. (I.e. 2016 - $158MM; 2015 – $258MM; 2014 - $306MM; 2013 - $242MM; and 2012 - $405MM). Of course they will still need to address the debt issue, so there is still risk while management reduces the risk profile. Nevertheless, it looks like a good buy and hold over the next few months at least to see if the units can catch a nice run back into the teens. Anyway, just my thoughts and we’ll see the Q2 results soon enough. GL longs.
from the SA article below "- the short interest has dropped from approximately 3 million to approximate 0.5 million. The gradual downtrend is still in place. The significant short-covering speaks loudly that the perceived market risk of bankruptcy has diminished."
Things only gets better from here. The strategy seems to work...
Looks like news/rumor of a really good quarterly report is starting to leak out. I expect $6+ after the report.
Overall I think we will see upside for CLMT in the short-term. Perhaps a pullback next day or so could occur I suppose but are yall also seeing a further leg higher? have you guys heard of awe.SOME-StockS. i started receiving their allerts and so far i am happy.
X axis : Stocks Price Correlation Coefficient Y axis : Quantity of stocks Sep-2016 1,000 Day Parameter 2,830 NASDAQ Stocks Price Analysis This stock mode of correlation coefficient is 0.5 In other words, the correlation coefficient of the other stock
MA (50) about to cross over the MA (200)....soon....very very close....
hmmm....not many sellers.....buyers will soon be stumbling over themselves
If we see a hurricane in the gulf all rigs and drilling will stop. This means that the oil reserves will drop showing a sharp increase in price, we seen this with Katrina. however Katrina was very devastating to the gulf. We would see a increase in most oil companies, and a balance or a smaller retreat once platforms get back online.
Yahoo Finance Insights
CLMT is up 5.95% to 4.45
Friday Trump admin will reveal infrastructure plan$$$$$$
The gap is closing... earning revision is a good sign... more confidence moving forward... $6 is a no brainer...
This thing seems to be tied to the oil and NG producer sector. That is beyond me as to why.