I bet we end today’s session $5.61 or higher - I just wanted to post this to prove a point...
Bullish
A
So when has fundamentals mattered in this companies valuation?! If that is what we are investing in, currently we all are insane... this is technically driven by oil and oil futures (all eyes on the $XOP) and the future of chemical process. For those keeping score at home; we are right in line for more accumulation here @ the 50-day. For us LONGS, the future looks very profitable with all elements considered. The price of this material that $CLMT makes will only get more expensive before it is ever replaced by alternative power sources. As always; stay long, nothing but higher highs to come!
Bullish
I
Once GF joint venture is announced and with the resulting cash infusion outlook will turn a 180.
r
I knew this qtrly report was not going to be good, but not to this extent. Obviously investors are jumping ship from the pps dive in the last 2 days. It will be a long time for it to turn around if it ever does, because there is so little to cheer about. This new mgmt is really disappointing IMO.
P
Everyone on this board is cheering this stock, which has destroyed investor capital for 7-8 years in a row. If history is a guide, they will take advantage of the recent rise and do another equity issuance.
Bearish
A
Holly buying 150Kbpd plant in Washington from Shell for $350 M, anyone want to compare that to what other assets could be worth? Any comments/thoughts?
r
Lots of trading and no direction. Zach's just issued a strong sell for CLMT. Unless they show a blowout on earnings tomorrow, this may fall off the cliff. I hope I will be wrong for the sake of all the longs. GLTA
I
Wonder what they will say about the proposed JV on the earnings call?
I
Rough qrtr due mainly to winter storm and turn around at Shreveport. In listening to call GF Joint venture is on track. They expect to be producing 5k bpd biodiesel by April 2022, 10k bpd in 2nd half of 2022.
I
321 crack spread is over $22, 2x higher than most of 2020. 1rst quarter should be a much better fuels quarter.
T
Pat attention to what is said on the conference call about RDF.
P
Only reason cash didn't collapse is because they played games with their balance sheet. AP up, accrued interest up, accrued salaries up, RINS liability up, 160M of debt due this year. Input costs are skyrocketing and they are writing DOWN the value of existing inventory. No way they are able to refinance their debt without their lenders forcing an equity issuance or pay rates over 10%, and there isn't much left on their LOC. Current ratio is .72. The fact that you can get out down .40 on the back of this quarter is a gift for those that are long, which seems to be everyone on this board. Cautious investing to all.
A
Reversion to the mean - $5.50 looks to be the support. The accumulation is real at this level. Look for a breakout of the $XOP in the weeks to come, this should translate to higher highs for us longs. Looking forward to the ride in the month of May 🚀
Bullish
B
This joint venture is sure taken a long time to get goin. Any body know why?
B
Looks like 23K share trade at 3:30 ETS for $5.63 which is 3 cents above yesterdays close in a strong down market. Guess someone has confidence in Calumet.
P
I just wonder if we will not hear anything on the JV until earnings, or if they will announce it as soon as it is signed? What does this group think the benefits of waiting until earnings?
Bullish
S
With this morning's price action we can now anticipate a move into the 7's.
Bullish
T
In the Wells Fargo report, Roger discounts his price target 50% from $16 to $8 to account for potential execution issues. Also states there is $3 to $9 worth of upside potential not factored into his analysis depending on how the joint venture is structured. Under the most ideal scenario (unlikely) CLMT secures a JV deal and executes their plan perfectly, Roger is saying a valuation of $25 is within reach. More likely scenario is a price target of $16 to $18 in the next 18 months. I’ll take it!!!
P
At what point do people stop giving this company money? They have lost money for 7 or 8 years in a row. Input costs are skyrocketing and demand is never coming back to what it was as WFH becomes permanent for many and business travel comes back to maybe 60-70% of what it was. If they lose a substantial amount again this quarter (unless they make a bunch on their hedges, which is really just luck), there won't be much left on their line of credit = equity issuance within 9 months.
Wells Fargo Upgrades Calumet Specialty Products Partners, L.P. (CLMT) $8.00 Equal Weight -> Overweight