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Continental Resources, Inc. (CLR)

NYSE - NYSE Delayed Price. Currency in USD
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28.80+2.65 (+10.13%)
At close: 4:00PM EST

29.24 +0.44 (1.53%)
Pre-Market: 5:10AM EST

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  • B
    Billy
    CLR is a $45 stock
  • B
    Billy
    $35 to $40 by April 30th
  • O
    OIL PRICES GOING UP
    Hi, here's my story. I've been all oil stock investor for some time now. Currently I own XOM, CVX, COP and CLR. I bought the CLR as a quick trade when it was beaten down last week. After checking the short interest on this one, I'm going to try to hold it in anticipation of a short squeeze. Here's my current opinion:

    The US Oil Sector services and Oil Majors all went through the bloodbath that was 2020. The stock prices of shale companies began to price in bankruptcy. The energy stock prices right now, are way off of these bankruptcy levels yet far from where the highs from the past couple of years. This does not mean that they are due to return to those high levels any time soon or maybe even ever. The models that the hedge funds use are probably not pricing in $60 WTI for the long term and rightly so, the Feb '22 Contract is $55 and Dec. '22 is a whole $10 cheaper than today at $52. The general value for US Shale breakeven used was said to be $38 or so, but for the sake of higher inflationary costs and steeper production decline curves, lets say the new breakeven for 2021-2023 is $40-$42 per barrel. From today:

    "The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects Brent crude oil prices will average $56/b in the first quarter of 2021 and $52/b over the remainder of the year. EIA expects lower oil prices later in 2021 as a result of rising oil supply that will slow the pace of global oil inventory withdrawals. EIA also expects that high global oil inventory levels and spare production capacity will limit upward price pressures. EIA expects Brent prices will average $55/b in 2022"

    If the models were assuming anything close to the EIA's $52 per barrel, then they may be set up for a disruption if the real price of crude ends of being a steady $60+ a barrel, which I think it will. If and when the futures curve starts to rise and flatten will determine how strong the foundation of the energy stock recovery is. Perhaps the market is seeing this as a temporary oil price spike on the heels of a temporary Saudi cut, a US rig count that was sliced in half, a couple weeks of declining inventory, a 2 month technical rally and now a weather crisis in Texas. Perhaps this is not a temporary oil price spike and it's now settling into the $60-$70 range. If this is the case, I think the sector can work its ways up to within 30% of highs in the next 6 months.

    Now as for CLR, the short interest is really interesting. The shale drillers pretty much move in unison. If we see stability in the oil price at these levels, and $50 a barrel is no longer in sight, we should see continued upward movement in the sector which should set off some covering as earnings, like those in the past should be imminent. If we get any sort of continuation to the rally we've seen thus far, I would think we could see a short squeeze. If this is the case, I think $60 is on the table.

    After the Q4 earnings, it looks like analysts are upping their price targets. The company can tackle that 5 billion dollar debt easily at $70-$85 oil which I think we'll see in 2022 although I think they will use a lot of that extra billion dollars per year on cap ex and only slowly pay down the debt. If oil is in a multi year bull run, the companys that are acquiring and investing will continue to look smart in the future.

    So long story short, this whold thing depends on the price of crude (don't forget nat gas looks bullish too). What we need to see here are the shorts waking up to what should be happending this year, higher futures contracts looking out 6-18 months and complete disruption to the models values for margins and profitability. The price action so far in 2021 is a start, but we're not there yet.
    Bullish
  • D
    Deez
    Crude oil hits $64 and CLR downgraded to neutral with a $26 target from MKM Partners. When crude hits $80 next month, they will downgrade again with a $12 target. What a complete sham!
  • B
    Benjo
    I am looking for 12-13 as good entry.
  • k
    kile
    What are they planning to do with the likely CF , no dividends like competitors ....they need to do a buyback
  • P
    Peb Exotic
    Oil over 60 nat gas over 3. Easy 30 a share.
    Bullish
  • B
    Ben
    Today's data:
    First hand sold shares: 1.057M
    Short volume: 0.788M
    75% of incoming shares was Short.
    The real short covering days for CLR is more than 45days with current volume.
    I can tell you , if short squeeze happens for this stock it will be epic.
    BE VERY CAREFUL!!
  • M
    Mike
    Been reading your MB. I’m heavy into MRO, thinking about adding some CLR looks very promising . Hope you have a great 4th quarter report.
  • B
    Billy
    $35 by the end of March. CLR will drift up with a few short covering spikes along the way
  • L
    Lean Government
    Drill to increase more than current level of production only when (1) already make profits that three times the loss of 2020 (2) OPEC+'s spare capacity is less than 1%. Remember OPEC+ can pump at will and 1% increase in production means 5% drop in price. IF CEO don't understand this, vote him out!
  • B
    Billy
    Short squeeze coming now with oil trading above $56 per barrel and just now heading into peak demand growth seasonal cycle. CLR will be at $35 in the next 60 days.
  • J
    John
    The share price was in 30-40s when the oil price is in upper 50s. The share price is still a bargain!
    Bullish
  • Y
    Yahoo Finance Insights
    Continental Resources is up 10.82% to 28.98
  • B
    Billy
    Shorts are trapped here now
  • D
    Daniel
    Insane shorts just selling to drive down price, no institutional support and just shorts digging their hole deeper. Guarantee we see large after hour trades where the buyer returns the shares - what amazing market manipulation. Still no SEC insight to address this hedge fund manipulation.
  • D
    Deez
    Shorts jumping on this rally in second half of day
  • D
    Daniel
    Looks like one hedge fund selling all day to drive down price (manipulation to the max) and then the partner hedge fund buys back the shares in bulk at close or aftermarket hours. Daily to drive down price. Seems like the SEC would have a documented financial record of fraud and manipulation of the share price. Sign me up for the Class action against the hedge funds. Little guy is getting cheated by the billionaire hedge funds.
  • k
    kile
    shorts feeling the heat
  • N
    Navarre55
    Just wanted to touch on one thing tallshipmaker highlighted. Go to your 3rd quarter 2020 results. Look at average prices and now look at prices I gave you. 4th quarter prices were higher than 3rd quarter. Now this is what you need to focus on. MRO had breakeven at $35 in 3rd quarter at wellhead. They have DUC wells not completed to cut cost. Some of the lowest in history of Marathon. Lateral feet in the Bakkens was at $560 and $700 in Eagles Ford. I believe real cost for both is around $30 dollars in Bakkens.

    The reason I bring this up say MRO had a average of $45 in 4th quarter all 4 big oil basins and IG. Every dollar over $35 is $55 million so 10 x$55 million is $550 million. Get it lower and the more free cash flow you get. See every thing below $35 pays the bills at CLR and MRO.

    When I was doing research on CLR when there was talk about both merging I came upon research that showed CLR cost in the Bakkens was more like $30. You see I look at all those permits in the Bakkens. Another factor for 4th quarter is during that time the Dakota access cut rates to help oil companies. It also may have added a little to the bottom line.

    Yes CLR and MRO will have a loss but I bet it will be better than 3rd quarter. Both should have a loss for the year but if the price of oil stays up all year both CLR and MRO will not have a loss. Then that brings up taxes. Tax laws were changed in March where oil companies could go back 5 years to match the roll back on corporation rates in those years. That means when CLR and MRO both get a refund in July 2020 it will be bigger than last year.

    In conclusion we need to push to finish the keystone XL from South Dakota down to Texas. I hear the pipe is in the ground around South Dakota. No need to write off all that pipe going to Canada. Canada already has enough pipeline capacity to ship or will have with Enbridge pipeline increases in the Great lakes. Also big pipeline in Vancouver where we Tanker it to the US. We get a lot of oil from Canada. I would say give or take 4.7 million barrels a day and 9.5 million barrels a day from OPEC. ( Never were we energy independent) .

    Yes we could be. One all refiners in the US should be taxed till they retooled from Sour crude to Sweet crude. Second we need oil companies to buy coal mines. At one time South Africa got 27 percent of there oil from coal. We have more coal in Alaska than the world has oil. 4 basins with 4 trillion tons.

    So my friends when you tell folks you invest in oil tell them CLR is into green energy because the Bakkens has green oil. (Really) Makes great gasoline and Diesel but with another pipeline south both CLR and MRO could cut cost and make more money.