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Coherent, Inc. (COHR)

NasdaqGS - NasdaqGS Real Time Price. Currency in USD
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253.01+0.46 (+0.18%)
At close: 4:00PM EDT
253.01 0.00 (0.00%)
After hours: 04:05PM EDT
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  • M
    Mesaverde
    From: Nicholas Rossolillo (TMFnrossolillo)
    Sep 23, 2020 at 11:47AM

    The better buy is?
    While demand from communications end-markets may be headed for a rough patch in the next few quarters, the stress being put on the internet and organizations' networks due to the pandemic should keep longer-term demand for photonics headed north. And new uses for Lumentum's and II-VI's components in industrial and consumer devices are creating additional fast-growing end-markets for these two manufacturers.

    I'm not currently a buyer of either of these stocks given the immediate-term uncertainty, but Lumentum's better profit margins, stronger financial position, and relative value mean it gets my nod as the better buy of the two.
  • J
    Junhan
    First, the merger gap between IIVI and COHR will be filled up
    On calculation IIVI $70 = COHR $283, still undervalued
    Bullish
  • P
    Peter
    $IIVI conversation
    I'm expecting it to go down with earnings no matter what, but on the other hand i'm not confortable shorting it either. The technicals are a bit ambivalent. On the fundamentals side, with the $COHR merger it has the potential to become a behemoth in the sector. I suppose buying and forgetting for 5-10 years would prove to be rewarding. On a shorter timeframe, considering the price paid, debt, macro outlook with potential taper tantrum for end of 2021 beginning of 2022, who knows.
  • J
    Junhan
    II-VI earning beat, check it

    EPS 0.88 vs 0.75 / Revenue 808M vs 782.94M

    solid growth. hold tight
    Bullish
  • S
    SmartNfunny
    I dislike COHR management's lack of consideration for Shareholders. They don't bother to announce when the earnings will be announce. They do not comment on anything that is going on with the company. They act like they are privately held company. I will never again own this company, whether their buyout goes through or not. This is one of the worst companies I have ever owned. I am just so fruatrated with them!!
  • S
    SmartNfunny
    This is what I am talking about. Without any previous indication, thy just announced their earning today. It does not say anything about Earning conference call. However the earnings for this quarter is good. No indication of how future quarters are looking. These guys really don't care about their retail Investors. They probably call the institutions and let them know. Very frustrating.
  • S
    Shaggy
    It did not surprise me that the new boy on the block, LITE tried to buy Coherent, though it did take me back a bit when MKSI jumped into the fray, mainly after buying ESI. They paid a huge premium for ESI at the time which was performing vastly worse than the overall sector, which was principally due to the fact there were suspicions that they were cooking their books base on revenues and sales and profits not really adding up. So more than likely they found out that they did get screwed over by the ESI acquisition so now they are merely doubling down on the laser sector to hid the lack of proper due diligence over ESI by buying Coherent at a much inflated price over what it was a month ago. Yet now that II-VI a company that is very conservative is joining the game really causes me to think that everyone in the sector has come to the realization that the only way to grow their business is to buy competitors. There is no organic growth left and that is a very dangerous game to find yourself in. I would have thought that all three of these companies would have known the debacle that the Coherent buy out of Rofin-Sinar was. The newly combined company was supposed to create tremendous growth and huge profits, the price soared to 300 dollars a share, but quarter after quarter the promised synergies never transpired and the stock price eventually plummeted to just around 80. It is simply amazing that shareholders of these companies are sitting idle for this behavior, it is simply destructive to their equity value. Coherent will not provide synergies, just as Rofin-Sinar never provided synergies to Coherent.
  • R
    Robert
    This stock will start going up steadily to 200 in a month or sooner.
  • A
    Anonymous
    The gap is being filled; calling for faith and patience.☺
  • D
    Don
    Believe it or not the merger is mainly about developing a competitive (to IPGP) fiber laser (FL) business, which basically depends on diode lasers and complex fibers. COHR bought Rofin for that reason and that didn't do the job, although they probably improved their FL position. I looked at LITE's web site and there it was, involvement in the FL business with a partner, Amada. The military directed energy market will undoubtedly require very high power lasers, most likely FLs. So the synergies come from merging the devices that go into FLs, keeping the best ones and getting rid of the others. Otherwise, I don't see any overlap in the product lines.
  • A
    Ash
    I think what you’re seeing with COHR today is a digestion of the news, especially with Apple’s report. The CEO of COHR said:

    From our vantage point, demand for OLED displays remains robust, but growth in the OLED share of the display market is being hindered by pricing and availability. This can only be corrected when one or more vendors becomes able to compete with the primary OLED display provider in the marketplace.

    Apple reported that demand for the iPhone X in China was better than ever, which signals a huge interest for OLED in China. It’s a known fact that Samsung has a monopoly in the OLED display business, but the Chinese are rushing to compete, especially BOE. The industry is trying to get in on the OLED action now. All this means that COHR will benefit from the competition.

    OLED’s earnings next week will be important. Keep an eye on it.
  • S
    Shaggy
    Unfortunately, it is impossible to justify the past several weeks, regardless of the value based on OLED based laser sales. Firstly, that overall is a small sector, secondly, one always has to look at the overall sector and as I have said multiple times we have a P/E of 22, IPGP has a P/E of 38, our earnings per share is over 7 dollars. Again, none of this is in jeopardy.
  • E
    Ed
    I was waiting for this moment to jump in. Thank you sellers. You gave me the opportunity!!!
  • S
    Shaggy
    JLeons, micro LED does not use excimer laser for production. Is that fact or speculation on your part, is the technology transferable, I know quite a bit about the laser and semi-conductor technologies and I wouldn't say that.
  • A
    Andy
    Guys everything is fine with COHR... it’s a pretty volatile stock, this stuff happens. I’m buying more on this dip, it’s going to at least $350 most likely above $400 by the end of 2018
  • d
    dia
    Please read the merger details! It clearly states every Coherent share gets $100 in cash and
    1.185 shares of LITE. The COHR share should be $206 as of the close today per above.
    In the coming days COHR will be going up to catch up with the conversion and if LITE share recovers it will even move further up.
    LITE is undervalued and its chart shows significant upward momentum.
    Best to All
  • S
    Shaggy
    Benjo, you are right that it was a disaster, though whether it is related to Apple or not I am still very doubtful. Did Apple make a couple of historic mistakes, yes, pricing a phone over 1K being the first and then not having the best technology available as the screen which your cheaper priced competitors already had. Though to say that Coherent is priced based solely on OLED I think is a bit of a stretch though. Did the stock get way ahead of itself based on the hope that Apple would utilize OLED, sure, but that really would only have had a limited positive impact on the stock. To have lost 2/3's of the value of the stock in a matter of roughly eight months is pretty amazing. Amazing to the point that I think the majority of its meteoric rise was manipulation and the majority of its fall was manipulation. So throw out anything that has happened before, what is the proper valuation for this stock and possibly for any of its competitors. We hear many who claim that the P/E is meaningless, maybe from a strictly technical or momentum play, okay, but in the end, fundamentals and therefore a company's P/E dictate an appropriate price. I believe it may take awhile but I firmly believe based on the sector, this should have a P/E hoovering around 18 to 20, so by year
    end this should be close to 200. But is this the time to buy or do we wait and see how the market makers play the markets in the new year, that is the 64,000 dollar question.
  • R
    Robert
    Way Oversold. Shorts cover on the horizon. Earnings approaching. Moving UP sharply.
  • S
    Shaggy
    I'm not ready to concede that Benjo is a stock guru, though he has been proven to a point to be correct, though as the old adage states a dead clock is right twice a day, if you continue to say that the bottom will correct in every interview then eventually you will be proven correct, as many of the supposed geniuses who came out after the housing bubble.
    With that said, Benjo is proving right today, but the greater question is why, whether you buy into the chartist mentality or not, there is only so much that can be attributed to the momentum play scenario. Even the stock that created the initial fall has begun to recover and never got hit any where near as hard as the downstream suppliers, that being Apple. Because Apple charged too much for the X phone and now they didn't buy as many OLED screens from OLED and then OLED wouldn't buy as many Excimer lasers from COHR, therefore OLED is cut in half from its highs and COHR is cut by over 40% from its highs. Well why is it that Apple has only fallen about 10% from its highs? They were the company that made the mistake, not OLED or COHR.
    Then we had the new fall out from Facebook because they sold customer information, wow, what a surprise but that fall out destroys the tech sector yet again, yet now today we see FB stock price up while OLED and COHR still being hammered.
    I know I will get the usual "the markets are perfect so manipulation is just conspiracy theory" retorts but that is exactly what is going on here. The small investors bought into COHR and OLED and well ahead of the big funds who really wanted to focus on the FANG stocks and Tesla, then they realized that COHR and OLED were two of the highest returning stocks of 2017 and well that just didn't sit well with them, they were going to tank the stocks and then they were going to chase the small investors out and then buy into them and take them over and then drive them up. It is the exact game plan that they did with brick and mortar retailers. Amazon was going to run everyone out of business, now all of a sudden that is not the case and the big funds have run out the small investors and now have taken over the retail sector and now what a surprise, Amazon isn't that big of a threat after all and retail is beginning to soar again. Same story, different day.
  • S
    Shaggy
    Tomorrow will be the day to review where the price is and where it will be. We have ESIO reporting earnings after close today, they have guided upwards. ESIO is probably the weakest of the semicon laser manufacturers out there, they haven't made a yearly profit in a long time if ever. When I followed GSIG (formerly GSI Lumonics and now NOVT) in 2000 and beyond, Rofin was the king, GSIG was an also ran though ESIO seemed to gather all of the attention. I never remembered seeing or hearing about COHR, though they were very specific to the Silcon Valley so I guess they were more of a boutique laser shop. Needless to say, when COHR bought out Rofin, that definitely solidified their position in the sector.
    I believe tomorrow we see major upside after ESIO numbers are in tonight. People in the know are trying to drive price to create good entry points, anticipating big numbers. These numbers will not be impacted by Apple X phone sales, compare the surface area of a 6 inch phone to the surface area of a 50 inch television. In totality, the sheer volume of OLED end product will not be substantially impacted one way or the other by Apple or any of the phone manufacturers.
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