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Columbia Sportswear Company (COLM)

NasdaqGS - NasdaqGS Real Time Price. Currency in USD
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99.25+1.39 (+1.42%)
At close: 4:00PM EDT
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  • S
    Shorty McShortBear
    Later today I will be Covering my Pure Earnings Short Sell of COLM, and then moving right on to a Short of ON, to hold through the weekend. Feeling very confident that COLM will sell off today despite delivering good earnings. It's all about valuation, folks. One of my key criteria in choosing which stocks to Short immediately ahead of earnings and hold through the release, is to find highly over-valued stocks that can be expected to sell off upon delivering even a good earnings release. That is how I achieve my 75-80% yearly win percentage.

    So, ON reports earnings pre-market on Monday. Not too many stocks to choose from in this particular time frame, but ON meets my strict criteria to qualify as a Pure Earnings Sell Short play.

    In the very crowded Semiconductor space, ON faces lots of stiff competition. The stock is significantly over-valued, and close to her 52 week high. Revenue has been declining since 2018. We have some Insider Selling just in recent weeks. Now, analyze ON financials, both stand-alone and in comparison to other Semiconductor companies. You will see this Baby is Bloated. And Bloated Babies tend to deflate upon earnings release, even if the numbers are relatively good, which I think they will be here.

    Financials:

    Debt is quite high. Compare to other Semi companies.

    P/E Ratio is quite high. Higher than 80+% of all Semiconductor companies. That is a direct comparison. Why so high?? This makes the stock VERY vulnerable for a sell-off even if they beat earnings expectations.

    Meanwhile, all other financials are essentially in-line with the sector. Nothing stands out, nothing really positive. Nothing that makes THIS company stronger than any other semi-conductor company.

    So, why should traders stick with this one immediately after earnings release? Most traders have profit as she is close to a 52 week high. Nope, this one is likely to sell off, 75% likely. And so I will happily sit Short on her through the weekend.

    Good Luck Folks!
    Bearish
  • R
    Royal
    I believe they are going to regret following the virtue signalling tactic with Bubba Wallace, outdoor company should focus on the outdoors, not politics.
  • W
    William
    If other folks are ordering as much stuff as I have in the past couple months from Columbia, they have had great revenue. Of course I buy everything on sale, so I don't know what their margins will be. Going long today as a swing earnings play ~ part of which will become a core holding if they report robustly. Nice quiet thread.
  • P
    PennSt8R
    Record Q2 and 1st half, revised FY2018 up and stock gets punished. Sometimes I don't understand wall street in the short term.
  • S
    Shorty McShortBear
    Later tomorrow, I will be Short Selling COLM as a Pure Earnings play. COLM reports earnings after the close on Thursday, and my research shows she is poised to take a nosedive immediately after releasing what I think will be a weak and disappointing report. Why COLM?? Consider:

    1: They sell clothing, specifically outerwear. And people have been hibernating indoors recently, right? Hello?! :-)

    2: Expecting significant Revenue declines in coming quarters.
    3: Stock is VERY close to a 52 week high. Why?????
    4: Stock is WAY over-valued.
    5: P/E Ratio for a clothing company is astronomical.
    6: Overall financials are decent, but in no way stellar enough to justify all this price frothiness.
    7: LOTS of Insider Selling in recent months.

    I'm telling you, COLM looks poised to take a nosedive upon her earnings release, and I will be very happy to Short this Bloated Baby later tomorrow. :-)

    Good Luck Folks! :-)
    Bearish
  • L
    LEE
    Within 2 weeks this will come back to post earnings bump. Decent clothing if you’re not looking for something too stylish but way over valued.
  • j
    jonm
    Jumped the shark with it's political tweets. Must have a lot of factories in Mexico.
  • C
    Confused
    Any other stock recommendations similar to COLM? Thanks
  • k
    kalika
    No one here!? I’ve been building a large position in colm for weeks. Expecting a significant pop in share price with earnings.
  • J
    JeffreyM
    I joined my peers and stopped buying the product after Columbia publicly attacked our 2nd amendment but I dropped them from my portfolio because I invest in organizations that focus on their core. If I want to invest in a tabloid, I’ll research tabloids that excel. Previous to their public rant, paid from stockholder dividends, I thought that Columbia was in the apparel business.
  • D
    Der T Sanchez
    Reasonable PE of 19 with forward growth in revs in single digits. Also down 20% in last year. getting to value territory.
  • k
    kalika
    Top line and bottom line beats. Raised guidance. Nothing after hours but expect a $4-6 dollar pop at the open tomorrow.
  • J
    JEFF H
    Check out Yeti, they seem to be on the same trajectory as Columbia. About 15+% growth this year
  • S
    Shorty McShortBear
    Covered my COLM Pure Earnings Short Sell at $106.85 for another outstanding profit, this time over $6k in a single day! That's the way to end a week!

    Immediately jumped into my next play, Sold Short ON at $39.08 with a lot of shares. I am a little bit less confident about this Pure Earnings play, and I wish I could have gotten in at a higher price point, but I still think the odds are at least 75% that ON will sell off on Monday after her PM earnings release. That Baby is STILL Bloated!

    Happy Weekend!
  • D
    Der T Sanchez
    Another home run Q.....healthy forecast.
  • J
    Jabberwonky
    Read enough about it's political leanings to know I won't buy any more Columbia products...and now they support China more than US. Hope it goes red.
  • D
    Der T Sanchez
    Congrats longs!
  • E
    Edsel
    There is a very negative article about Columbia in the NY Times on how it will never bring back jobs to the US. Columbia seems to engage in "tariff engineering". And when asked about jobs returning to the US Columbia's CEO Tim Boyle said, “There is no way,”Zero. None.” What an unpatriotic CEO, unpatriotic company. Unfortunately I could not throw out a single product they make since I have never bought any of their products. So I implore loyal, patriotic Americans to give this Benedict Arnold CEO, Mr. Doyle, the same treatment when it comes to purchasing their outsourced goods in the future, "No way, none"! Let him sell his Parkas to the Vietnamese who make them ...