|Bid||8.50 x 900|
|Ask||9.06 x 4000|
|Day's Range||8.18 - 8.77|
|52 Week Range||7.92 - 26.67|
|Beta (3Y Monthly)||2.17|
|PE Ratio (TTM)||1.37|
|Forward Dividend & Yield||N/A (N/A)|
|1y Target Est||N/A|
Carrizo (CRZO) delivered earnings and revenue surprises of 2.90% and 0.46%, respectively, for the quarter ended June 2019. Do the numbers hold clues to what lies ahead for the stock?
Callon Petroleum (NYSE:CPE), having declined by 58% in the last 12-months, has been a clear under-performer. The acquisition announcement of Carrizo Oil & Gas (NASDAQ:CRZO) has not changed my bearish long-term view on the stock. However, I do believe that there can be a possible trading bounceback in the near-term.Source: Shutterstock The focus of this article will be on the key concerns that make Callon Petroleum stock unattractive for long-term exposure even after a deep correction. CPE's Debt and Cash FlowsOn a standalone basis, Callon Petroleum reported total debt of $1,330 million as of the first quarter of 2019 (1Q19). For the same period, Carrizo Oil & Gas reported debt of $1,715 million. For the combined entity, the total debt therefore stands at $3 billion.InvestorPlace - Stock Market News, Stock Advice & Trading TipsFurther, with LTM EBITDA of $1.2 billion, the leverage currently stands 2.5. With both companies generating negative free cash flow, it is likely that the total debt will continue to increase in the coming quarters. * 8 of the Most Shorted Stocks in the Markets Right Now Therefore, an increase in leverage is a concern for Callon Petroleum and CPE stock. My focus is on debt and debt servicing as the global economy has decelerated. Expansionary monetary policies can ensure that oil does not trend meaningfully lower. However, $50 to $60 oil is unlikely to be enough for Callon Petroleum to generate positive free cash flows. The Permian Concerns for CPE StockCallon Petroleum indicated in the merger presentation that the company expects free cash flow to break even at $50 per barrel of oil. I am of the opinion that the estimates are optimistic.Besides expected oil price weakness, the key reason is the company's Permian assets. The Permian shale-well production has been falling off at a steep rate. It is clear from EIA data that production growth has been relatively muted in the Permian. In addition, legacy oil production change has trended steeply lower.The implication is that shale producers need to invest more to maintain production. Therefore, capital expenditure can be higher than expected which implies a negative impact on free cash flows.Infrastructure bottleneck at the Permian is another challenge that is likely to sustain through 2019 and potentially into 2020. It is worth noting that the company's realized oil price for 1Q18 was $53.3 and declined to $42.18 for 1Q19. Once new pipelines are operational, realized price is likely to trend higher. That is still few quarters away. The Positive Triggers for Callon Petroleum StockIn April 2019, Callon Petroleum entered into an agreement for divestment of non-core asset in the Midland Basin for a consideration of $260 million. Post-acquisition of Carrizo Oil & Gas, the company will be looking at divest other non-core assets. This can be a potential source of cash that can be used to deleverage. However, I believe that the markets will wait for any such positive trigger before CPE stock trends higher.Another obvious trigger for CPE stock trending higher will be upside in oil prices. The company's production is weighted towards oil and higher realization would imply EBITDA margin expansion and free cash flow visibility. However, economic headwind is a near-term concern and it remains to be seen if expansionary policies trigger sharp upside in oil price.It is also important to note that the PV10 for the combined entity is approximately $7 billion. Callon Petroleum and Carrizo Oil & Gas have a current combined market capitalization of nearly $2 billion. Even if total debt of $3 billion is considered, the company is undervalued considering the resource base valuation.This valuation gap will fill only when Callon Petroleum demonstrates the ability to sustain production growth and turn free cash flow positive. Investors need to remain in the sidelines for these triggers to actualize before moving on CPE stock. Concluding Words on CPE StockBefore the acquisition, Callon Petroleum stock was a pure play in the resource-rich Permian Basin. CPE stock still trended lower on Permian-specific concerns that I outlined. With the acquisition of Carrizo Oil & Gas, the company is not more diversified in terms of asset base.Callon Petroleum needs to demonstrate that the acquisition does bring in benefits in terms of size and scale. In addition, the company needs to focus on deleveraging and turning free cash flow positive.Until then, Callon Petroleum stock is a good trading stock and I believe that current levels are attractive for medium-term exposure.As of this writing, Faisal Humayun did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities. More From InvestorPlace * 2 Toxic Pot Stocks You Should Avoid * 8 of the Most Shorted Stocks in the Markets Right Now * 7 Charts That Should Concern Marijuana Stock Investors * 8 Monthly Dividend Stocks to Buy for Consistent Income The post Callon Petroleum Stock: Trade, Wait for Positive Long-Term Triggers appeared first on InvestorPlace.
Carrizo (CRZO) possesses the right combination of the two key ingredients for a likely earnings beat in its upcoming report. Get prepared with the key expectations.
The U.S. government’s new holding facility for migrant youth will close as early as this week, less than one month after it was opened in response to the squalid conditions in which children were being detained by the Border Patrol, according to the nonprofit operating the facility. The last children at the camp at Carrizo Springs, Texas, are on track to leave by Thursday, said Kevin Dinnin, the CEO of the nonprofit BCFS. The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services opened the facility in late June.
Here at Zacks, our focus is on the proven Zacks Rank system, which emphasizes earnings estimates and estimate revisions to find great stocks. Nevertheless, we are always paying attention to the latest value, growth, and momentum trends to underscore strong picks.
In view of Callon Petroleum's (CPE) already weak financials, the company's decision to pay a premium with shares to assume Carrizo's debt load and scattered assets gets tepid response from investors.
The Zacks Analyst Blog Highlights: Callon Petroleum, Carrizo Oil & Gas, McDermott International and Occidental Petroleum
Shale producer Callon Petroleum (CPE) agreed to buy smaller E&P player Carrizo Oil & Gas (CRZO) for $3.2 billion, while McDermott International (MDR) clinched twin contracts from Saudi Aramco.
Shares of Carizzo Oil & Gas are rising 2.6% Tuesday afternoon as investors digest the company's acquisition by Callon Petroleum for $3.2 billion, or $13.12 per share. The combined company will have "scaled development operations across a portfolio of core oil-weighted assets in both the Permian Basin and Eagle Ford Shale," the companies said in a statement. Callon shareholders will hold 54% of the combined company once the deal closes with Carrizo shareholder holding the remaining 46%.
The latest Permian Basin play is a ‘merger of equals’ between Callon Petroleum and Carrizo Oil & Gas, the first after Chevron Corp. lost out in the battle for Anadarko Petroleum Corp.
Callon Petroleum announced Monday it would buy Carrizo Oil & Gas in an all-stock deal to expand its Permian Basin acreage.
Both companies had separately considered divesting their water infrastructure. Combined, those assets could look even better for monetization.
(Bloomberg Opinion) -- A big deal in the Permian basin should be cause for fanfare in oil and gas circles. And yet, a distinct sad-trombone note sounds as Carrizo Oil & Gas Inc. falls into the arms of Callon Petroleum Co.Callon is offering a 25% premium in an all-stock acquisition, based on Friday’s closing prices. But it’s the absolute price that tells the real story. Carrizo is selling out for $13.12 a share, getting it back to where it traded just less than three months ago – and way below the $23 level where it sold a slug of new shares last August. If Callon is engaging in some bottom-fishing, Carrizo is nonetheless grabbing eagerly at hook, line and sinker.Carrizo’s decision to sell with its stock trading close to its lowest levels in a decade is the salient fact here. It is being paid with stock and its shareholders will own 46% of the enlarged Callon, so they can participate in any gains once the deal is done. They’re better off not looking too closely at their screens on Monday, though: Callon’s stock slumped by as much as 17% Monday morning, wiping out the implied premium.Even so, there is a compelling logic to shale consolidation. A decade of breakneck expansion has left the onshore U.S. exploration and production business overcapitalized, with a long tail of inefficient smaller companies offering lackluster returns (see this). Carrizo is a prime example. Its total return over the past five years is negative 84%, which makes the sector’s negative 64% look good (the S&P 500 has returned a positive 69% in that time). Indeed, activist firm Kimmeridge Energy Management Co. tried last year to nudge the company into streamlining or selling itself to address this. Carrizo, which was trading at about $17 a share back then, disagreed.It is telling that up to $45 million of Callon’s synergies target relates to cutting general and administrative overhead. That is equivalent to more than two-thirds of Carrizo’s G&A line, reinforcing one of Kimmeridge’s lines of argument about the inefficiency inherent in such a fragmented industry.Those cash savings also speak to the other key point in Callon’s marketing push, namely an implied free cash flow number north of $200 million in 2020. Based on Callon’s current price, that implies a pro forma free cash flow yield of about 10%, which may be enough to tempt some investors back into the stock when the smoke clears – although pro forma net debt of two times Ebitda (including synergies) means some of that will have to go toward reducing leverage.Proving those synergies work and that free cash flow will actually find its way to shareholders is Callon’s main task now. The company hasn’t had a single year of positive free cash flow since 2010, according to figures compiled by Bloomberg. And its own total return has been negative 41% over the past five years – better than Carrizo but still far to the wrong side of zero.That is the problem with E&P as a whole. Carrizo will hardly be missed by investors, and wringing out some costs would be a good thing. Yet the very fact that Carrizo has chosen to take this price at this time, rather than the usual E&P playbook of banking on the next upswing, says a lot. To contact the author of this story: Liam Denning at firstname.lastname@example.orgTo contact the editor responsible for this story: Mark Gongloff at email@example.comThis column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.Liam Denning is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering energy, mining and commodities. He previously was editor of the Wall Street Journal's Heard on the Street column and wrote for the Financial Times' Lex column. He was also an investment banker.For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com/opinion©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
Shares of Callon Petroleum Co. fell sharply Monday after the company said it would acquire Carrizo Oil & Gas in an all-stock transaction valued at $3.2 billion. The combined company will have "scaled development operations across a portfolio of core oil-weighted assets in both the Permian Basin and Eagle Ford Shale," the companies said in a statement. After the deal closes, Callon shareholders will hold 54% of the combined company and Carrizo holders 46%.