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Canadian Solar Inc. (CSIQ)

NasdaqGS - NasdaqGS Real Time Price. Currency in USD
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38.28-0.96 (-2.45%)
At close: 1:00PM EST
38.40 +0.12 (+0.31%)
After hours: 04:47PM EST
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  • J
    JK
    Financials were better than analyst forecast. Huge new project in US announced. New battery partnership announced which will accelerate CSIQ end to end solutions with storage. This is one of the most undervalued growth opportunities in the market.
    Bullish
  • J
    JK
    Earnings call notes in case anyone finds them helpful.

    Tariff eliminations will benefit CSIQ by lowering costs going forward. The bifacial tariff exemption may also lead to refunds of tariffs already paid.

    Q3 $23 Op Income benefit was selling of solar power plant assets in China and will not repeat. Sold a power plant.

    Opex was up 11% from Q2 due to higher shipping costs. In Q4 those costs will be level with Q3 and the cost is offset by higher ASPs.

    Contracts have inflation protection clauses

    Power restrictions in China that limit production - the harsh restrictions are being relaxed some so more capacity is available.

    2021 Capex is $500 million. Right now believe it will be about the same in 2022 but only preliminary.

    Slide 16 - the increases in volumes seem to be inconsistent with the increase in revenues. Analyst expect higher ASPs. Silicon module shipments are expected to increase. CSIQ expecting stable to maybe slight decrease. Because products become more efficient the price per GW may be declining even if the product ASP is flat.

    Sources of Polysilicon - based on human rights issues are they buying from inside and outside of China. Company is avoiding any forced labor sources of polysilicon.

    Any COVID slowdowns currently? Some slowdowns in mfg in southeast Asia. Other factors are more impactful than COVID like WRO.
    Bullish
  • D
    Dan
    BULLISH on the CATL cooperative agreement. Analysts have underestimated CSIQ's battery storage growth potential.
    Bullish
  • T
    Ted
    Announcement of huge project to power 57K homes in Nevada and the stock is tanking??
  • L
    Led Tasso
    Here's my $.02 on what's happening today.

    The ER was by every measure, great. Yeah there are some cost and material headwinds which are somewhat impacting revenues as they limit sales to higher margin opportunities; however, the massive growth story is still intact and actually growing.

    So why the tepid market response? There were a lot of shares exchanged above $40 this year, which means there are a lot of holders with losses. With Qu saying that the Shanghai IPO was going to be pushed into Q1, those holders with loss positions who have been holding for FOMO reasons, now have the go ahead to sell and book losses in this quarter, with the ability to re-purchase before the IPO is announced. I think we see selling pressure for a week or so followed by a steady pick up in buying. That's my best guess. Take it for what it's worth...
  • J
    JK
    Assuming $5 billion of annual revenue a multiple of 1X revenue would result in a share price of $83.

    Growth in revenue combined with improving margins from earlier this year should put CSIQ on track to deliver $4.00 to $5.00 in EPS in 2022 on $6 to $7 billion of revenue. A PE of 20 for a high growth company with the scale of CSIQ would be conservative. That would translate to $80 to $100 per share.

    The company has $1.4 billion in cash and a prudent capital management focus. They will also be spinning off the Chinese operations into a separate company which will create more cash for the company to fund new products and growth. This would make another equity offering less likely.

    Stumped why this company is not already trading at $60 to $80.
    Bullish
  • p
    pdd
    What the earnings show is that solar panels are far from mere commodities. Profit margin of 18% is very healthy in any industry. Carmakers would be happy to have such margins and they're flying high. I have renewed confidence that I was right to go all-in on solar.
  • J
    Jesse
    How in the lords name is this not up at least 10%, they smashed estimates like ive rarely seen a solar company do.
    Bullish
  • J
    JK
    Strong revenue growth. Significant margin and earnings beat. $1.4 billion cash balance.

    Also appreciate the extensive disclosures in the earnings release.

    CSIQ continues to be grossly undervalued.
    Bullish
  • J
    JK
    Take a look at the valuations of other solar companies.

    FSLR 4.6 and SPWR 4.2- that would make CSIQ a $300+ stock

    1X revenue gets to a share price over $70. For a high growth company 1X rev is low. That is less than 25% of the valuation given to competitors
    Bullish
  • L
    Leor B
    Commerce Dept. closing the anti-dumping case. This is GREAT news.for us - this was one of the main things holding us down. Solar stocks on the Chinese stock exchange are already rallying, we should rally tomorrow.
    Bullish
  • K
    K
    If it was a biomed or technology stock reported this kind of ER, the stock would have jumped about 50%.
  • L
    Lam
    Should have bought more when this dropped to $32. What price are you guys selling?
  • J
    JK
    I own shares in several companies and find the disclosures by CSIQ and the candor in their earnings calls is better than a lot of others. Just sharing my opinion.
  • J
    JK
    Double the average daily volume already. Wish they would come out with an update on the Shanghai listing for the China portion of their business. The valuation must be positively impacted by the elimination of the import restrictions. In todays environment with a shortage of supplies I would expect CSIQ and other panel manufacturers to be increasing prices vs. dumping at low prices. No one is putting out the for sale sign for excess inventory so it is a sellers market = better margins long term.
    Bullish
  • W
    William
    Long
    Bullish
  • J
    JK
    First Solar earnings were not great. Earnings missed by 33%. Q3 sales of $583 million missed estimates by 16% and down from $928 million in Q3 2020.

    Despite all that analyst are tripping all over themselves to upgrade the shares which are already selling at a P X Sales of almost 5X.

    Meanwhile, CSIQ is selling for 1/10th the valuation of FSLR with a P X Sales of 0.5X.. CSIQ revenue in Q2 were $1.4 billion, almost 3 times FSLR and substantially higher than 2020.

    IMO opinion CSIQ is grossly undervalued in the solar industry.
    Bullish
  • L
    Leor B
    The market isn't even close to pricing in the benefit for us - This hurts domestic solar manufacturers (that's why FSLR, MAXN, etc. are down big), and helps companies that import into the US (CSIQ, JKS, etc.). We should be up way more right now.
    Bullish
  • M
    Michael
    while others jump high easily, this thing seems been dragging down by something...
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