I hadn't checked on Ernie Jr.'s stock sales for awhile, so I did today. He's stepped up his game to selling 50,000 Class A shares per day now, up from 40,000 a few months ago. That works out to more than $12 million every single working day. He converts to Class A from his Class B holdings but he won't run out of shares soon, he's got about 47 million left to dump. For the life of me, I cannot understand why this money-losing company with a nonsensical business model and a convicted financial felon in total control is deemed to be worth $50 billion.
S
When it’s down it’s normal volume or 2x. When it’s up it’s 50% less then average daily volume
Bearish
s
I have gone over my notes focusing on when Carvana has said they will be profitable. I KNOW....I KNOW......Son of FFFF uses a metric he made up and claims that last quarter, this sham company made $3,655 profit per vehicle......But as we know, when you take out all the vending machine expenses and CNBC commercials, they lose big money every single quarter, I do not see any profit ever. But my notes indicate that in 2019 Mr, Matchbox collector said they would be profitable by 2025. Seriously? 2025. And NOW.......Tonka Toy Boy refused to answer questions about CVNA profit and just gives us the broken record on happy customers and a techno wizzardry program that just about everyone has copied and does better then this amateur car seller. Keep raising the price target if you are a bag holding hedge fund or institution.
C
CFO, COO, president joining the FFFF in selling. It is rare to see such solidarity of confidence! Wonder what is next...
C
Never forget when insiders are selling shares hand over first its definitely time to get out. A couple of commenters argued that I didn't know what I was talking about. I was told they were exercising their options and not selling shares (semantics). I don't care what you call it, insiders should not be compensated to the tune of billions of dollars (Ernie) before a company achieves profitability.
A
Bofa says buy a head of earnings. Translation - they have a lot of smart money clients selling before earnings and need some retail buyers.
T
The profits per car wont increase in a mkt like this because the prices at auction level are sky high due to demand BUT.. the sales # is much higher due to little inventory in new cars ppl are buying used low mileage units just what carvana supplies!!
s
Here is how crazy the pumping of this stock is......CFRA. They say they are a Research Company. But they make money by getting paid to pump stocks and make them look good. Here is what they just put out on CVNA saying that you should hold the stock. Note that the raised their price target on the numbers:
We lower our adjusted EPS estimates to -$1.60 from -$1.45 for '21 and to -$1.05 from -$0.85 for '22.
These re real numbers from their HOLD recommendation on CVNA. So the INCREASE THE LOSSS for 2021 and more losses for 2022.....and then increase their price target based on more losses in 2021 and 2022.
We increase our 12-month price target by $30 to $260, based on our DCF analysis.
50 billion dollars for more operating losses because they have changed the way cars are sold?????
R
After a head-spinning read through CVNA's latest 10Q quarterly filing, one thing (among many, many) that struck me is how inter-related and opaque are its dealings with Ernie Jr.'s DriveTime. CVNA buys cars from them, rents office space, repair facilities and even aircraft from them, and they are a direct competitor, which would seemingly be a conflict of interest. No way to tell whether DriveTime is propping up CVNA by off-balance-sheeting losses, a la Enron...or the other way around, siphoning off the profits. BTW, DriveTime is basically an old-fashioned "dealer" like the ones CVNA supposedly makes obsolete. One thing is for sure, this is set up so that Ernie Jr. has complete voting control (Class B shares get 10 votes, as long as they are held by the Garcia, Class A get 1 vote).
M
This is actually a micro chip play. When all the US manufacturers stop all production because China is hoarding micro chips, those who really need a car will have to go to the used market. The used market has higher margins and also lower costs. Cost of making cars now between steel, chips, rubber, etc. is much higher than it was just a year ago. I have a small long position and I might pick up some more. 
n
Whichever way the Q1 numbers come in, the CVNA can point to the below "major market developments." If the numbers are below expectations, the bag holders can justify spectacular future results by pointing to expanding into these "robust" markets, and if the numbers are good, management will will point to their superior business acumen of recognizing the market potential of these robust markets. Carvana Launches in Hammond with As-Soon-As-Next-Day Delivery Carvana Debuts The New Way to Buy a Car® in Mississippi Carvana Continues Expansion in Louisiana, Launches in Houma
T
You guys just dont understand the car biz im a retired used car dealer and ive made thousands $$$$ on carvana
A
Morning, 2 points: 1. Notice you can decrease EPS by increasing # of shares (heavy dilution in #'s) 2. Interest Expense was 30 Vs. 29?? Hard to believe but let's look ahead to target future Interest Expense in order to forecast EPS
C
Sold off my remaining shares in Carvana today for a 1100 percent plus gain. My favorite holding period is forever. However, between the insider selling and the euphoria in the broader market I reasoned it was best to get out while the going is still good.
S
Inflation comes down then Carvana is stuck with cars they bought for a premium considering the price for used cars is sky high - bad for Carvana,
Inflation goes higher a significant amount of people can’t afford to buy used cars - bad for Carvana
SEC decides to look into DriveTime relationship and accounting statement - bad for Carvana
Bearish
G
peope are so short sighted. you know that these giants like carvana and vroom represent something like 2 or 3 percent of all used car sales right? of course they will pile money into growth to get that to even just 15 or 20 percent market share between the two of them in a decade.
at that point we are talking about 100-200 billion in revenues per year, plus all of the services revenue that go withit.
you get a blank check pe ratio for that kind of growth once it becomes clear that this where its going to go. everything else is just noise. netflix had all the same kinds of garbage short attacks when it was spending 100 million dollars on individual shows.
bunch of crybabies wanting to see all of that growth for free. give me a break!
R
Last quarter Carvana was expected to lose .47. Instead they lost .87. Guess what, analyst raised Carvana's price target.
D
Long term debt up to $2.2 billion, operating cash flow down to (568) million in a quarter. So they will probably burn through $2 billion worth of cash on the year. Not sure how long that is sustainable.
s
Drive Time, in my opinion is just a money laundering operation designed to put more money in the hands of FFFF. It is impossible to isolate or find the payments and money flowing from CVNA into drive time even though the relationship is closely tied together. This is by design by one of the most prolific financial fraud felons ever to walk away from the Lincoln FInancial Scandal with not even a parking ticket. CVNA's financials are a joke. There is no transparency, there is related transactions not disclosed, there is money moving all over the place and the only thing you see is analyst upgrades on increasing loss projections.
S
Seems like they really are pushing the publicity full speed which mean it’s gonna be a devastating quarter. Expectations are sky high
We lower our adjusted EPS estimates to -$1.60 from -$1.45 for '21 and to -$1.05 from -$0.85 for '22.
These re real numbers from their HOLD recommendation on CVNA. So the INCREASE THE LOSSS for 2021 and more losses for 2022.....and then increase their price target based on more losses in 2021 and 2022.
We increase our 12-month price target by $30 to $260, based on our DCF analysis.
50 billion dollars for more operating losses because they have changed the way cars are sold?????
Carvana Launches in Hammond with As-Soon-As-Next-Day Delivery
Carvana Debuts The New Way to Buy a Car® in Mississippi
Carvana Continues Expansion in Louisiana, Launches in Houma
2 points:
1. Notice you can decrease EPS by increasing # of shares (heavy dilution in #'s)
2. Interest Expense was 30 Vs. 29?? Hard to believe but let's look ahead to target future Interest Expense in order to forecast EPS
Inflation goes higher a significant amount of people can’t afford to buy used cars - bad for Carvana
SEC decides to look into DriveTime relationship and accounting statement - bad for Carvana
at that point we are talking about 100-200 billion in revenues per year, plus all of the services revenue that go withit.
you get a blank check pe ratio for that kind of growth once it becomes clear that this where its going to go. everything else is just noise. netflix had all the same kinds of garbage short attacks when it was spending 100 million dollars on individual shows.
bunch of crybabies wanting to see all of that growth for free. give me a break!