|Bid||15.52 x 900|
|Ask||16.38 x 800|
|Day's Range||15.74 - 15.89|
|52 Week Range||14.91 - 19.94|
|PE Ratio (TTM)||20.26|
|Beta (3Y Monthly)||0.34|
|Expense Ratio (net)||0.77%|
If Treasuries and precious metals are rallying, it's unlikely that we're in an environment where stocks are making a sustained move to the upside.
As of December 21, Vale (VALE) had returned 5.5% year-to-date. While the stock’s gains haven’t been much in absolute terms, it has outperformed most of its close peers. In the same period, Rio Tinto (RIO) has returned -9.8%, BHP (BHP) has returned 2.4%, and Freeport McMoran (FCX) and Glencore (GLNCY) have fallen 47.2% and 32.8%, respectively.
Of the 16 analysts covering Rio Tinto (RIO) stock, 62.0% have given it “buys,” 25.0% have given it “holds,” and 13.0% have given it “sells.” Its ratings have remained more or less the same for the last few months. Of the analysts covering BHP Billiton (BHP) and Vale (VALE) stocks, 39.0% and 78.0% have given them “buys,” respectively. Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF), which is mainly exposed to the US domestic market, has “buy” recommendations from 64.0% of the analysts covering its stock. Analysts generally expect its premium to come down compared to those of its peers due to the lack of any significant catalysts.
In a report published on November 26, Goldman Sachs (GS) stated that commodities (COMT) could climb 17% in the coming months. It believes that commodities will escape a 2015-style price collapse. Among commodities, GS is particularly bullish on oil (USO), gold (GLD), and base metals (DBB). According to CNBC, Goldman Sachs said, “Given the size of dislocations in commodity pricing relative to fundamentals with oil now having joined metals in pricing below cost support, we believe commodities offer an extremely attractive entry point for longs in oil, gold and base.”
Vale (VALE) is expecting its cash flows to significantly expand going forward. The company has identified several levers to help future cash flows. Let’s take a look at those levers.
On Vale Day on December 4, 2018, Vale (VALE) said it is getting ready for the coming electric vehicle revolution. Previously, the company had cut back on its volumes in base metals to better align production with market conditions. Nickel, cobalt, and lithium are used in rechargeable batteries in electric vehicles.
Vale (VALE) hosted Vale Day in New York on December 4. It’s aiming at maintaining discipline in capital allocation and remains committed to continuing to distribute free cash flow to shareholders. Vale’s president and CEO, Fabio Schvartsman, said, “We made in this bold remark that Vale would be the company to generate more value to its shareholders.
While gold prices (GLD) jumped 0.8%, copper prices rose 1.3%. Gold prices benefit from a weaker dollar, and the Fed chair’s comments pressured the US dollar (UUP) yesterday. Part 2 - What Made Powell Change His Mind?
In a report published yesterday, Goldman Sachs (GS) stated that commodities (COMT) could climb 17% over the coming months. It also cited the upcoming G-20 meeting as the potential launchpad for raw materials. Among commodities, GS is particularly bullish on oil (USO), gold (GLD), and base metals (DBB).
Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) announced the closure of the sale of its Asia-Pacific iron ore assets to Mineral Resources on August 28. Through this final step, its direct exposure to the volatile seaborne iron ore market is over. CLF is primarily a US-based (DIA) (IVV) iron ore pellet producer and should be valued as such. However, seaborne iron ore prices affect it indirectly. Chinese steel demand is the largest factor affecting seaborne iron ore prices.
Can Iron Ore Maintain Its Price Momentum amid China's Slowdown? China’s manufacturing growth in October was at its weakest level in over two years. The PMI reading for China was the lowest since July 2016.
Trade tensions, especially between the world’s two largest economies, have been taking a toll not only on the equity world but also on the commodity space. In fact, the escalating tit-for-tat tariff threats pushed the Bloomberg Commodity Index, which measures the returns on 25 raw materials down by 8.9% from the latest peak in late May.Source: Shutterstock
China is the top consumer of raw materials and the tariffs will slowdown growth in its economy hurting commodities. As such, we have highlighted few commodity ETFs that are feeling the brunt.
Is a Valuation Rerating in the Cards for Vale Stock? Vale’s (VALE) base metal (DBB) production, including nickel and copper production, was in line with its decision to lower its footprint by putting non-competitive mines on care and maintenance. Vale’s strategy is to preserve its optionality in nickel in case of higher demand for nickel class I. Nickel production, therefore, reached 58,600 tons in the first quarter, a decline of 18% year-over-year and 25 sequentially.
Vale (VALE) is optimistic about the growing popularity of electric vehicles. Vale’s executive director of base metals, Jennifer Maki, said the market forecast suggests that electric vehicles could represent 7%–20% of the global auto market by 2025, up from 1% in 2017. The company wants to preserve its optionality in nickel ahead of the expected boom in electric vehicles (TSLA).
Strong chart patterns for key commodity-related ETFs suggest that this could be one of the only segments to withstand a continued sell-off.
Is the Sell-Off in US Aluminum Producers Justified? As we noted previously in this series, aluminum prices have seen downward pressure this year. Lower aluminum prices are negative for aluminum producers like Rio Tinto (RIO) and Norsk Hydro (NHYDY).
Can Vale Expect Significant Upside after 4Q17 Results? Vale’s (VALE) base metal (DBB) production, including nickel and copper, was flat to lower in 2017 compared to 2016. Its nickel production fell 7.3% year-over-year (or YoY) to 288,200 tons, which was in line with Vale’s commitment of a smaller nickel footprint.