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VelocityShares 3x Inverse Natural Gas ETN Linked to the S&P GSCI Natural Gas Index ER (DGAZ)

NYSEArca - NYSEArca Delayed Price. Currency in USD
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452.310.00 (0.00%)
At close: 3:59PM EDT
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  • T
    Thomas
    Wednesday morning. EAI data shows:
    Q4 2019 production forecast increased by 0.59 Bcf/d to 101.36 Bcf/d
    Q4 2019 consumption estimates by 0.28 Bcf/d to 89 Bcf/d.
    the difference is 12.36. Thus per week, 86.5bcfs go to storage.
    After all, the injection season started almost 30% below the prior five-year average. By the end of October, EIA expects working inventories to be 3.792 Tcf, 2% above the prior five-year average and 17% above October 2018 levels.

    What do you think this would do to NG prices , even when going to heating season?

    One thought(not mine, but I agree) is that NG prices to remain lower than last winter as production has grown steadily through 2019, leading to a strong storage injection season and leaving supplies ample heading into winter. However, there will be spikes during periods of cold that will cause NG prices to rise for periods of several days.

    And that's, my friends, where we have to trade UGAZ and DGAZ respectively. as Trey W here said, and I agree, watch NG price momentum. happy trading( not gambling). set your limits, protect the winnings and stop losses.
  • T
    Thomas
    the trend had been obvious for the last week, since there are no huge daily fluctuations(except last Thu), the wining trades are buying UGAZ in premarket and closing the position before closing bell, that way I avoid the fees, and minimize the risk of the down movement. Not sure how long such leisure will last, but it works for now. about 5k in profits now in UGAZ last week. NG is a wild cat .
  • T
    Thomas
    lets see, last week injection of 84bfcs did do much, however, seems that reversal is looming, shorts almost got covered, judging from todays action. However, the US Energy Information Administration is expected to report an 87 Bcf injection for the week ended September 6. An 87 Bcf injection would be more than the 68 Bcf added in the corresponding week last year, as well as the five-year average of 73 Bcf.
    remember last years NG rally into end of Nov? well, we started with way less storage and no warm autumn, straight to winter. now, the EIA forecasts natural gas storage levels will hit 3.769 Bcf by the end of October, which is slightly higher than the five-year average and 16% higher than October 2018 levels.
    I seriously doubt we reach the same price as last winter, unless serious polar vortex hits US every week. Again, I expect the volatility to remain high, which is good for trading 3x etn. tomorrow is going to be interesting day. This morning premarket DGAZ price action of 104 shows what is coming ... good luck to all of you, trade responsibly and eat your vegetables.
  • T
    Thomas
    good morning everyone, are you ready to make some money? DGAZ and UGAZ rollover to Nov contracts has started, thus the drop in UGAZ as the GSCI index has to roll cheaper Oot contracts into more expensive Nov contracts. to mitigate such drop, MM need to drop NG price. we have a week or so on DGAZ uptrend, then its back to fundamentals- supply and heating-cooling demand. Rig count drop by 4, but production has not slowed down significantly. Last weeks injection report strongly sugest we will bypass 5 year average and go into winter season with approx. 500-600 bcfs more in storage than last year. thus the strip price dropped from 2.70 to 2.55, too.
  • T
    Thomas
    we all remember what happened last Thursday on such massive 112 bcfs injection. I read that a lot of you are cautious and wait after the report. I have a bit different view- it will not be repeated. if the build is triple digits, NG will go down. still 3 weeks to go before injections stop, and consumptions is equal to production. NG will spike only on extreme weather, like last year, but that is in Dec.
    On the other hand, if you start the position in UGAZ or DGAZ, make the stop loss order right away.
  • F
    Frank
    I have been a long time Natural Gas trader and normally do not post messages, but boys and girls Natural Gas production is still humming along and the temporary Arctic Blast has two impacts on Natural Gas. The first is a large Demand over a large portion of our Natural gas usage map and second Natural Gas production curtails during Arctic weather conditions. That makes the price squeezed at both ends, thus large price increases. But as weather normailizes and production resumes at historic pace Nat Gas prices will go down accordingly. Good Luck as Nat Gas approaches a One Year High!
  • O
    Owen
    Today's Pivots - 23.34 (S/R over 20 times) has now replaced 24.10 as I update daily unlike those other guys using old data:) and Upside Pivot 25.22 with next S/R 26.69. Happy Trading....
  • O
    Owen
    Big opportunity will happen in the next 10 days. Be patient and wait for it. Trader reaction to 2.859 will determine the short term range.....
  • T
    Thomas
    seems a short covering continues, though it subsided a bit from the early premarket. if its overreaction, it will show when the market opens up. RSI level shows DGAZ is way oversold, so I opened a position @93.
    critics would say that it would be better to hold UGAZ over the weekend, given the weather forecasts, and in hindsight, its correct. but on Friday- with 8% gain in UGAZ, it was not so clear.
    Again, I might be loosing on such big gains, like today, but Id rather trade daily on swings than loose big chunks. small profits better that big loses. good luck to all you traders.
  • O
    Owen
    Dgaz Update - We now have Two Open Up Gaps, Crossover is now at 49.6 (we need 50) ,and 5 Bullish to 3 Bearish Signals.
    Keep in mind Nat Gas Runs are between 2-4 days (one 5 in last year) we are now at 3 days up ,expect a pullback the next 2 S/R Levels are 23.36 and 20.56. Watch for the close above 25.14 until then happy trading.

    PS Don't be surprised to see the 25.14 change as I update the data daily, keeps the info more accurate for nat gas.
  • C
    Clancy
    should I add to lower my average? I have been buying from 22.40, 20.90, 18.80, 17.50 increasing number of shares each purchase from 200 first and 400 last purchase. My next purchase is planned for 500 shares.
  • B
    Brodie
    @andy @owen I have been quietly following this message board for a few months and I, along with many other have benefited from your insight. With a few warmer days this week will that at all have an effect? Also... school me on how the next months contract effect current UGAZ/DGAZ Highs & Lows?
  • W
    Wild
    The inventory reports are telling us there is already too much supply. There is much more gas in the Permian Basin where it is being flared off and sells for $0. Pipelines are coming on-line next quarter to flood the market with that Permian gas.

    $1 handles are coming for Nat Gas which means DGAZ has much higher to go. An additional 18% decline in Nat Gas translates to $300 DGAZ.
  • k
    k
    Long time home trader, but only started investing in DGAZ this week. With around 30% return in the last few days there’s no denying this leveraged ETF is the real deal. comments and insights. My buy/sell signals for stocks have always been based upon 10-day MA, MACD and Stochastics, and going back through DGAZ history shows that those should be good indicators on this ETF as well. The way I set them up captures a lot more short term momentum—and all my signs are pointing to DGAZ continuing to rise, so I’m bullish...I’m cautious though, so I got in at 105, out at 125, in again at 134, out again at 145, in again this afternoon at 142....stop loss is set, so we’ll see. Enjoying reading all your comments and insights too. Glad to be here
    Bullish
  • T
    Thomas
    Steve, remember when DGAZ was $86 about 11 days ago? that was funny, right? 150.47 high of the day, wait till tomorrow to cover your short position, will be even higher than this.
  • B
    Barry
    For the couple of people who asked for info, Let me mention that I have a Liquid margin account that allows me to trade many times over and pre/post market! I also have a brokerage account within my 401k that does NOT allow these options but have made money lately with DGAZ/UGAZ there as well just not as frequent! So after selling DGAZ again this morning I have BUY LIMIT orders back for DGAZ @ $80 and $78 and $76. I also have UGAZ Buy LIMIT orders in for $60 and $58 and $56. Will keep you posted on progress if interested! Last Tip : I've been adjusting share price range higher for DGAZ and Lower for UGAZ! Good Luck to all, if this post annoys anyone, just ignore! Strictly trying to help out!
  • L
    Lobsterpot1989
    Notice the absence of James?
  • c
    cool
    Sold all DGAZ @ 87.5. Will be buying after report trend or on dips.
  • T
    Thomas
    early premarket NG is dropping from 2.30 to 2.28.. the report posted 60. as history repeats, injection volume is picking up again from mid Aug lows, and it will peak again at end of Sept, and mild weather permitting- mid Oct. hope the current NG price action allowed you to trade on both sides and make some nice profit. Personaly, I think its DGAZ time, and I will place my buys more agresively, still according to the rules and common sense. have a nice trading Friday. cheers!
  • P
    Px
    OT: SHOULD BUY JNUG IN COMING DAYS If IT DROPS LOWER.... INTEREST RATES ON THE RISE, MARKET IS RUNNING OUT OF STEAM. PERFECT SIMPLE EQUATION FOR GOLD TO RISE !

    “...... By 1980, that same interest rate had more than quadrupled, rising as high as 16%. Over that same time span, the price of gold mushroomed from $50 an ounce to a previously unimaginable price of $850 an ounce. Overall during that time period, gold prices actually had a strong positive correlation with interest rates, rising right in concert with them .... “

    Insert from INVESTOPEDIA.COM