|Bid||0.00 x 0|
|Ask||0.00 x 0|
|Day's Range||3,240.05 - 3,364.95|
|52 Week Range||2,351.20 - 3,364.95|
|Beta (5Y Monthly)||-0.23|
|PE Ratio (TTM)||33.38|
|Earnings Date||May 10, 2018 - May 14, 2018|
|Forward Dividend & Yield||20.00 (0.61%)|
|Ex-Dividend Date||Jul 15, 2019|
|1y Target Est||2,587.45|
Is there more upside in the cards for Amarin (NASDAQ:AMRN) stock? Shares soared late last year on news of the company's flagship Vascepa treatment receiving an expanded label. But after climbing from around the $15 price level to as high as $26.12/share, interest cooled.Source: Pavel Kapysh / Shutterstock.com When I last wrote about Amarin stock in mid-January, shares traded just under $20/share. Since then, the stock has tread water with shares closing at $18.18 on Feb. 12.One can argue that Vascepa's potential is already priced into shares. But, with similar treatments from competitors facing headwinds, Amarin stock could move higher as analysts anticipate even greater potential sales. On the other hand, nothing's for certain in the biotech game.InvestorPlace - Stock Market News, Stock Advice & Trading Tips * 7 Exciting Stocks to Buy for Aggressive Investors Things could turn on a dime, pushing Amarin shares back down to prior levels. Yet upside may outweigh risks for Amarin stock. Let's dive in and find out why. Amarin Stock Could Move Higher as Competitors FlounderIn my last Amarin stock article, I discussed how Vascepa's upside potential could be thwarted by competition. AstraZeneca's (NYSE:AZN) Epanova and Acasti Pharma's (NASDAQ:ACST) CaPre face headwinds. Both yielded disappointing Phase 3 results. AstraZeneca is now throwing in the towel on Epanova. Acasti is investigating why, as InvestorPlace's Josh Enomoto reported, CaPre was no more effective than a placebo.With these competitors floundering, things look brighter for Vascepa. In other words, there's good reason why Amarin stock could head higher. Yet in the past month, shares haven't budged due to the news. Some investors remain skeptical of Vascepa's prospects. What's driving this negative sentiment? Competitive risk from generics.Two major generic drug-makers, Dr. Reddy's (NYSE:RDY) and Hikma (OTCMKTS:HKMPF) have generics in their pipeline similar to Vascepa. As I wrote in my prior Amarin stock analysis, both generic makers challenged Vascepa's patent. The uncertainty of this litigation is largely what's keeping Amarin shares from heading higher.Jeffries' Michael Yee is confident in Amarin's chances of winning the case. Proceedings in the case have ended, with a written ruling due by March 31. The analyst believes, based on the evidence presented, the court will rule in Amarin's favor. Yee gives shares a "buy" rating with a $30 price target.With these new developments, it seems Vascepa has a clearer shot of becoming a blockbuster drug. However, buying Amarin stock today is no slam-dunk. Multi-billion dollar sales figures are years away. Based on Amarin's guidance, the company should generate between $650 million-$700 million in revenue this year. That's a big jump from 2019's $425 million in sales. But a far cry from Stifel's estimated $3 billion in peak annual sales. What's Amarin Worth to An Acquirer?Annual sales have a long way to go before hitting the estimated peaks. That's not to say Amarin stock isn't worth more than its current trading price. Despite selling for around 9.4 times estimated 2020 sales, I reiterate Amarin remains a takeover target.Amarin stock is no stranger to takeover talk. Major pharma names find it easier to "buy" new drugs instead of spending billions more on R&D. So far, Amarin has decided to "go it alone." But, I don't see Amarin's board saying no if the price is right.So, what's a fair takeover price for Amarin? Let's assume Vascepa does hit $3 billion in peak sales. Major pharma names like GlaxoSmithKline (NYSE:GSK) and Novartis (NYSE:NVS) have gross margins between 68% and 71%. That implies peak gross profits for Vascepa of around $2 billion.With fixed overhead costs, a major pharma name could add much of this gross profit to the EBITDA line. GSK and NVS have EBITDA margins around 30%, implying fixed costs around 35%-40% of sales. Let's estimate Vascepa's overhead costs are just 30% of sales. That means estimated EBITDA of around $1.14 billion.GSK stock has an EBITDA multiple of 10.3. Novartis has an EBITDA multiple of 15.4. Other names, like Sanofi (NASDAQ:SNY) and Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) have EBITDA multiples around 12. Let's say an acquirer paid $30/share for Amarin stock. Subtracting around $600 million in net cash, that means around a $10.2 billion purchase price for Amarin. In other words, an EBITDA multiple of around nine.Even at a 65% premium to the current Amarin stock price, the company could be an accretive acquisition. Keep in mind this is all back-of-the-envelope. It remains to be seen whether Vascepa lives up to expectations. Bottom Line: Upside Potential Remains, RisksRecent developments could mean more upside for Amarin stock. But keep risks in mind. Amarin next releases quarterly results later this month. If earnings and/or guidance falls short of expectations, shares could move to prior price levels (or lower).Also, the courts could rule against Amarin's favor in the patent suit. Yet, with material upside potential, Amarin stock could be worth the risk.Thomas Niel, contributor to InvestorPlace, has been writing single-stock analysis for web-based publications since 2016. As of this writing, Thomas Niel did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities. More From InvestorPlace * 2 Toxic Pot Stocks You Should Avoid * 7 Exciting Stocks to Buy for Aggressive Investors * 20 Stocks to Buy From the Law of Accelerating Returns * 7 U.S. Stocks to Buy on Coronavirus Weakness The post Risks Remain, but Amarin Stock Is a Buy at Today's Prices appeared first on InvestorPlace.
Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories Ltd. (BSE: 500124, NSE: DRREDDY, NYSE: RDY, along with its subsidiaries together referred to as "Dr. Reddy’s") today announced the launch of Trientine Hydrochloride Capsules USP, 250 mg, a therapeutically equivalent generic version of Syprine® (trientine hydrochloride) Capsules, approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (USFDA).
Curis, Inc. (NASDAQ: CRIS), a biotechnology company focused on the development of innovative therapeutics for the treatment of cancer, today announced that it has entered into an amendment of its collaboration, license and option agreement with Aurigene Discovery Technologies, Ltd. (Aurigene). Under the terms of the amended agreement, Aurigene will fund and conduct a Phase 2b/3 randomized study evaluating CA-170, an orally available, dual inhibitor of VISTA and PDL1, in combination with chemoradiation, in approximately 240 patients with non-squamous non-small cell lung cancer (nsNSCLC). In turn, Aurigene receives rights to develop and commercialize CA-170 in Asia, in addition to its existing rights in India and Russia, based on the terms of the original agreement. Curis retains U.S., E.U., and rest of world rights to CA-170, and is entitled to receive royalty payments on potential future sales of CA-170 in Asia.
Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories Ltd. (BSE: 500124 | NSE: DRREDDY | NYSE: RDY) today announced its consolidated financial results for the quarter ended December 31, 2019 under International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS).
The pharmaceutical business is part of the larger healthcare sector. Pharmaceutical products may be generic, such as those used for common ailments like the flu and colds, or branded, patented drugs used for treating rare diseases including certain types of cancers. Among the best-known pharmaceutical companies are Eli Lilly & Co. (LLY) and Merck & Co. (MRK).
Dr. Reddy's Laboratories Ltd. (BSE: 500124, NSE: DRREDDY, NYSE: RDY) will announce results for the third quarter ended December 31, 2019 on Monday, January 27, 2020 after the Board Meeting.
On Friday, Dec. 13, 2019, the FDA approved an expanded cardiovascular claim for Vascepa, a drug produced by Amarin (NASDAQ:AMRN). Prior to this patients with very high triglyceride levels were only ones approved to use Vascepa.Source: Pavel Kapysh / Shutterstock.com Now those with lower levels and other signs of heart or diabetes issues can use it. This vastly expands the population to whom Amarin can sell Vascepa. Those with greater than 150 milligrams per deciliter can now use the drug. Amarin estimates that "millions" (with no specific number associated with that noun) can benefit from its drug.A previous advisory committee had unanimously recommended that the drug be approved. There was a high likelihood that the FDA would approve Vascepa for expanded cardiovascular treatment.InvestorPlace - Stock Market News, Stock Advice & Trading Tips Amarin Stock Includes a Lot of Good NewsAnalysts have already argued that Amarin's Vascepa, its only drug, will bring in greater than $1 billion annually in sales, with peak sales above that. One analyst, Nathan Weinstein, at Aegis believes the drug could hit $2 billion in sales by 2025. His peak price target was $23 per share.The problem is Amarin stock is already very close to that target price, at $21.36 per share. In other words, a lot of the good news is already implied in the valuation of AMRN stock. Another analyst, at Stifel, has put a hold recommendation on Amarin stock. His price target is $28 per share. * 7 'Strong Buy' Stocks to Put on Your Wish List Amarin announced that it expects its 2020 U.S. sales to be between $650 million to $700 million from sales of Vascepa. Seeking Alpha's database of eight analysts have an average estimate of $692 million in revenue for 2020.That puts Amarin stock on a forward price-to-sales ratio of 11.9 times. That is an extremely high valuation metric. It would normally be the number for a conservative stock's price-to-earnings ratio.It implies that a bidder for all of AMRN stock would have to wait almost 12 years before their investment would equal the sales achieved, not earnings. Not too many companies would be willing to do that.Clearly the market expects that sales will climb significantly over the next 12 years. There are tw0 problems with that theory: competition and patent issues. Problems With the ValuationThe FDA is also looking at similar drug studies from: AstraZeneca (NYSE:AZN), whose drug is called Epanova; Acasti Pharma (NASDAQ:ACST), with CaPre; and, Matinas BioPharma (NYSEAMERICAN:MTNB), with its MAT900i drug.A recent analyst article in Seeking Alpha assessed these three competitors and the state of play of their drug applications. The analysts considered these companies competitive threats to Amarin and its Vascepa drug.In addition, Amarin is facing patent lawsuits from several companies. These include Dr. Reddy's Laboratories (NYSE:RDY), an Indian pharmaceutical company, and Hikma Pharmaceuticals (OTCMKTS:HKMPY), a generic pharma company. However, bullish analysts point out that Teva (NYSE:TEVA) has already settled with Amarin.Most of these suits, including one that begins in January, concern the validity of the core of Amarin's patent family. It is called "Methods for treating hypertriglyceridemia." Another patent for "Stable pharmaceutical composition and methods of using same" family is also in litigation. * 5 Large-Cap Dividend Stocks to Buy If Amarin loses these cases, it could lose all patent protection. Other drug companies could use their ideas.As it stands the patents give Amarin protection until 2029, or 10 years. This is Amarin's only product, so it has to make hay during that period with Vascepa. What Should Investors Do?AMRN is a high-risk, high-return stock. As always, I recommend only buying on dips and during bad news with these kinds of stocks. They are essentially a mild form of gambling, although some risks can be minimalized with probability analysis.Given that a prior panel recommended for Vascepa, the AMRN stock price already discounted last week's FDA good news. Analysts seem to agree. Their target values are not significantly higher than the present price.Investors should look for an opportune time to jump in. Analysts will likely scrutinize the patent protection litigation closely in January. Look for an opportunity then to consider investing in Amarin stock.As of this writing, Mark Hake, CFA does not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities. Mark Hake runs the Total Yield Value Guide which you can review here. The Guide focuses on high total yield value stocks. Subscribers a two-week free trial. More From InvestorPlace * 2 Toxic Pot Stocks You Should Avoid * The 8 Biggest Investing Surprises of 2019 * 7 Impressive Stocks to Buy Over $250 * 4 Small-Cap Energy Stocks Ready to Explode The post Amarin Stock is at Sky-High Levels Already Assumes All the Good News appeared first on InvestorPlace.
We know that hedge funds generate strong, risk-adjusted returns over the long run, therefore imitating the picks that they are collectively bullish on can be a profitable strategy for retail investors. With billions of dollars in assets, smart money investors have to conduct complex analyses, spend many resources and use tools that are not always […]
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