Was auch immer Sie tun, tun Sie es zum Zweck; tun sie nicht gründlich oberflächlich. Zum Ende der Dinge. Jede Sache, die Hälfte getan, oder die Hälfte bekannt ist, ist in meinem Kopf, weder gemacht noch überhaupt bekannt. Nein, schlimmer, denn es verleitet oft. http://dataunion.tistory.com/7585
iPath US Treasury 10_year Bear NYSE $DTYS Correlation Histogram
X axis : Stocks Price Correlation Coefficient Y axis : Quantity of stocks May-2016 1,000 Day Parameter 4,338 NYSE Stocks Price Analysis This stock mode of correlation coefficient is 0.7 In other words, the correlation coefficient of the other stocks
If one would want to play an anti-bubble, this is it--I bought some earlier today (Sep 13, 2016). I've got some GTC orders widely spaced on down. It can certainly get beat up more, but how much? Kind of like the extended bull in bonds, this trend will end eventually-even though it really only started in 2008. I'll wait in the wings for WEAT to get to 6 or below and would consider BGEIX, when we see what happens with the GOLD:BGEIX ratio when it gets to the major moving averages. Still holding the DTYS, TBF and SJB as the "other" anti bubble play.
The ratio got as low as 101.85 in early August--it was at 115.77 at the close Sep 12, 2016. Probably headed for 140 and a test to see if the MAs will hold. I would think the ratio will trade between 100 and 200 for a long time.
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Looking to at least challenge the moving averages in this phase. MACD finally turns decisively up.
Three-month Treasury bill rates ended the week at 34 bps. Two-year government yields slipped a basis point to 0.78% (down 27bps y-t-d). Five-year T-note yields gained three bps to 1.22% (down 53bps). Ten-year Treasury yields rose seven bps to 1.67% (down 58bps). Long bond yields jumped 11 bps to 2.39% (down 63bps).
Brace For "VaR Shock" - How The Bank Of Japan May Be About To Unleash A Global Selloff
"The impact of the BOJ’s stimulus is that the bond markets worldwide are becoming one market. If there’s a reversal of policy, you can’t rule out that it would roil global debt" said SMBC Nikko Securities. "It would definitely see some pain" added Ol
Bought more DTYS, TBF and SJB--have GTC orders on DTYS and TBF down to below their recent lows in intervals. Will concentrate only on the interest rate play now. Would buy WEAT at and below 6, but that's it. Sold the 100 shr each of URA and USDU.
As long as gold and silver are in lockstep with treasuries, it is danger time for the PMs.
August 31 – Bloomberg (Tracy Alloway): “Rumors of leverage's death have been greatly exaggerated. In the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis an abundance of leverage — borrowed money used to amplify returns — was blamed for exacerbating losses on subprime mortgages and contaminating the banking system with catastrophic results. Since then a host of new rules have been enacted to reduce financial leverage… While such efforts have made substantial steps in derisking the financial system — especially at large lenders — they've also encouraged the creation of new types of leverage and its migration to different players. Today, much leverage appears to sit on the balance sheets of large and small investors, often fueled by the need to generate returns amidst ultra-low interest rates and high correlations that see asset classes move together… Leveraged strategies may include selling volatility or dabbling in derivatives tied to interest rates or corporate credit.”