|Day's Range||98.08 - 98.30|
|52 Week Range||93.81 - 98.93|
The 10-year-yield is back above 1.5% Friday, but it fell below that mark Thursday for the first time since 2016. Gennadiy Goldberg, TD Securities USA Senior US Rates Strategist, joins Yahoo Finance's The First Trade to discuss that. He also weighs in on what we can expect from the FED's Jackson Hole Symposium.
The FOMC minutes had a distinctly stale flavour to them as the logical expectation were for a more hawkish tone after the Fed massively underwhelmed on the July rate cut, maintained a positive outlook, and had two dissenters. Beyond that, there wasn’t a great deal in these minutes that was new.
It’s a busy day ahead as the markets react further to the FOMC meeting minutes. Chatter from Jackson Hole may overshadow the stats…
Cable continued to stay consolidated near 1.1264 level on Wednesday. Upbeat July Canadian Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained as the primary driver that lifted the CAD currency.
The volatility on the market dropped recently and the reason for that seems to be in the Jackson Hole symposium later this week.
Based on the early price action and the current price at 98.175, the direction of the September U.S. Dollar Index futures contract is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the Fibonacci level at 98.045.
Apologies for the essay, but I was writing to a client about things that keep me up at night, other than an 11-month old, and it got a little out of hand. The central theme is that the big issue is that the global economy is bearing the impact of nine Fed hikes and $730b in balance sheet normalisation.
A sense of positivity is sweeping across financial markets on Tuesday amid signs of progress in trade negotiations and hopes of stimulus in major economies.
Based on the early price action and the current price at 98.250, the direction of the September U.S. Dollar Index the rest of the session is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the downtrending Gann angle at 98.295 and yesterday’s close at 98.220.
Positive trade headlines and potential fiscal stimulus provided much-needed relief for investors who have been spooked by recessionary cheerleading and toppling bond yields. However, Boston Fed President Rosengren threw a small glass ice water on the risk market rally dubbing the fall in equities since the July FOMC meeting as “not very big”.
The RBA looks set to hold on rates near-term. For the day ahead, a lack of stats will leave the markets exposed to any trade war chatter.
Fiber continued to slip for the fifth consecutive session today. The Ninja continued to stay within the lower vicinity of the Bollinger Bands, sustaining adverse price actions throughout the day.
The world is pre-positioning and anticipating this week’s Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, with Jerome Powell the known highlight, with the Fed chair due to speak at 00:00AEST on 24 August.
Based on the early price action and the current price at 98.080, the direction of the September U.S. Dollar Index is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the short-term Fibonacci level at 98.045.
Based on Friday’s price action and the close at 98.007, the direction of the September U.S. Dollar Index on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the short-term Fibonacci level at 98.045.
The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 98.700 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. A move through 96.980 will change the main trend to down.
In the USD Index, the bulls continued to take over the bears even today. Interim, rising odds for a no-deal Brexit was making the Cable traders upset.
The S&P500; stabilised on Thursday, finishing the session up 0.2%. Better-than-expected US data (retail sales, Empire State, and Philly fed) probably helped sentiment in US stock markets, though it seems to have been largely ignored by the bond market. Bond markets continue to scream at the Fed supported by President Trump who continues to muscle Powell lower ” we don’t care about the data if you don’t cut rates you are making a huge policy mistake” ahead of the annual central bank soiree in Jackson Hole Wyoming. From a risk sentiment perspective, the Fed has no other option than to comply with the market’s pricing for fear of a total risk meltdown.
After marking the day’s opening near 105.89 level, the Ninja showcased a pretty decent performance on Thursday. Greenback continued to sustain positive price actions even today.
Based on the early price action, the direction of the index the rest of the session is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the short-term 50% level at 97.840.
Based on today’s price action and the current price at 97.83, the direction of the September U.S. Dollar Index into the close is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the short-term 50% level at 97.840.