The trading setup for EBS looks very enticing. google aw-esomeSTOCKS - they offer pretty good trade alerrts. you dont have to trade their tickers but it definetly helps you recognize possible patterns for stocks you're trading.
Harry Boxer has posted his Charts of the Day video on EBS at TheTechTrader site noting: Emergent BioSolutions Inc. (EBS), another stock I put a swing trade on, because this one seemed like the big break away gap on the contract announcement, and then the inside day on Monday, got it ready to pop 74 cents, or 2.2%, to 34.21, on 659,037 shares traded on Tuesday. I’m looking for a test of 37, and maybe the low 40’s. It has 10 days to cover short.
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Harry Boxer has posted his Charts of the Day video on EBS at TheTechTrader site noting: Emergent BioSolutions Inc. (EBS) had a big pop on Friday, on some major contract news for a 911 million-dollar airport. After moving down a little bit on Monday morning, this stock went very nicely up 1.10, or 3.4%, to 33.47, on 953,000 shares traded. It needs to get through 34, 37, and then low-to-mid 40’s, potentially.
EBS could be in real trouble. The ave analyst estimates were dropped dramatically last week for both 2016 and 2017.
Many lawsuits in progress. One shd ask about the drops in the SP this last week, and what caused it.
One of the analysts said that the first drop was overdone. Right now, with the 2016 eps est at $.89, it is really easy to imagine the SP sinking to 20 or less, esp if that 89 goes any lower.
Mgmt at EBS has lost control of their business. Maybe not their fault, but they have lost control.
This Stock is already just beginning to move up in the last few trading sessions and is going to be far bigger than biotech movers. It will be one of Wall Street's biggest movers beginning this year. This is like buying AMZN in 1997 and making 20,000% returns where each $10,000 turned into $2,000,000.
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Here's a quick thot about the upcoming stock distribution. It looks like EBS has 40M shrs outstanding, and they say that they will distribute 1 shr of the new company for every 2 of EBS.
So they intend to distribute 20M shrs. If they price that at just $6/sh, that's a mkt cap for the spun out company of $120M, pretty pricey for an unknown dev bio. More important, that 120M comes right out of EBS's mkt cap, meaning EBS will drop 10%. While that large a drop may not happen, and I agree it could be less, it could also be more.
EBS needs to provide more transparency. I re-loaded some shrs after the drop, but am now thinking I need to exit until this distribution is done.
Took an opening position here. Don't really understand the severe selloff today but there is definitely blood on the streets. I think this company has what I look for most---good management.
Chardan comments. Out this AM, they say the sell off is overdone...but.
Seems that the last 5 yr contract was for 45M doses, and this contract is for 29M. Thus the selling.
Chardan notes that the shelf life for biothrax is 4 yrs, and that's a factoid that is news to me, and good news. They say that 8M doses a year need to be renewed just to maintain the current stockpile. 8m/yr for 5 yrs is 40M doses (my extrapolation), with no build up in the stockpile. Chardan seems skeptical about the 29M.
They also note that the dev contract could be bid by anyone (the supply is a sole source contract). While EBS is well positioned to win that, there will be other bidders.
Now I know why analysts were expecting a lot of growth next yr, they were anticipating a growth in the stockpile, while also needing to replenish the doses that had gone over their shelf life.
I got this from a summary of the Chardan research that is available to Fidelity users, and came off midnighttrader.
Researchers at Fort Detrick could have developed a new and improved anthrax vaccine. Google "fredericknewspost" for the article
law suits. new to this board. have been thinking of buying here with this dip. there are a few lawsuits
that i wonder will effect price. any truth to them? not much info to go on,
it's a slaughter.... RFP comes out, I ahve to guess the qtys being requested are well below what was expected, stock off 5 bucks.
When there is so little coverage, it's hard to know what's up...
2017 EPS est reduced. From 2.68 to 2.48. In my experience, the first reduction is usually not the last.
More thots on the 29K doses. CDC says they want to have 25M doses, that's the key bad data point. They seem willing to have less inventory thru the next 5 yrs.
So they retire what goes off the freshness date, and just buy 5M more each yr.
5M/yr, 5 yrs, plus the 1M/yr that the military uses (per the Chardan note), and you get to about 29M.
I see this as a very big change for EBS, and I am not sure the stock will recover. I also think that rfp quantity was leaked to some mkt participants, which is why the stock was dropping in the week before the RFP was released.
I got out as soon as it started dropping, and I am not getting back in.
one last thing.... EBS had been an incredibly strong and stable stock for a couple months. Then, starting June 9, the selling started. Did someone know something?
I usually hate conspiracy theories, but there was a 10%+ drop in front of this collapse, and I find it hard to believe that it's a coincidence.
Q1 ER. all good except that the company needs to delay 2016 rev guidance bcse the CDC is waiting until the very last min to finalize the new supply contract. Q2 and Q3 shd be pretty much sure things, within a tight range.
The good news, which is a long way off, is that the CDC contract will not contract for 1 Q of supply, it appears that it will be a 1 yr or so contract length, which would give us tremendous visibility. But that is 5 months away.
New 52 week hi.... If only all my bios (and other stocks) were at highs...but my 2 largest current bio holding are, EBS and LGND.
Sell EBS with PPS target $44 @ $39 and buy AMAG with PPS target $51 @26 for better 2x probabilities. Won't it be wise to sell EBS with PPS target $44 @ $39 and buy AMAG with PPS target $51 @26 for better 2x probabilities
2017 EPS estimate increase. Check out the analyst estimates on the YHOO page. The 2017 EPS est went from 2.49/sh a week ago to 2.66/sh.
The hi est was for $3.00/sh.
Here's my guess, EBS will earn .75/sh in Q4 next yr (maybe even Q3), and when that is out there, and people see a run rate of $3/sh and increasing, the SP will be about $70/sh. A double in 15-18 months.
It's been a rocky 45 days, I hope we are thru that mess.