|Bid||1.1400 x 1000|
|Ask||1.1500 x 800|
|Day's Range||1.1200 - 1.1500|
|52 Week Range||0.8000 - 2.9300|
|PE Ratio (TTM)||N/A|
|Forward Dividend & Yield||0.01 (1.33%)|
|1y Target Est||N/A|
In this part of the series, we’ll analyze mining stocks’ correlation with gold. Gold dominates the four precious metals, and silver, platinum, and palladium are known to closely track its movement.
Greece aims to resolve a long-standing standoff with Canada's Eldorado Gold Corp. (ELD.TO) over its development plans in the coming weeks, the energy ministry said on Tuesday. The differences between Eldorado and the government over the miner's plans to produce gold and other metals in the northern Greek region of Halkidiki have dragged on for years, mainly over environmental regulations. Eldorado blames Greece for long delays in issuing necessary permits, while Athens says the company has submitted a deficient plan to build a metallurgical plant that will process ores mined in Skouries and Olympias.
Greece aims to resolve a long-standing standoff with Canada's Eldorado Gold Corp. over its development plans in the coming weeks, the energy ministry said on Tuesday. The differences between Eldorado and the government over the miner's plans to produce gold and other metals in the northern Greek region of Halkidiki have dragged on for years, mainly over environmental regulations. Eldorado blames Greece for long delays in issuing necessary permits, while Athens says the company has submitted a deficient plan to build a metallurgical plant that will process ores mined in Skouries and Olympias.
Its strong execution and operational performance have made it one of the best-managed gold companies, which also contributes to the significant premium to its peers. Eldorado Gold’s (EGO) and New Gold’s (NGD) forward multiples had been at significant premiums to their peers. Although Eldorado Gold has had several ongoing issues at its mines in Greece and Turkey, New Gold stock was pressured by delays and cost escalations at its Rainy River project.
Gold’s price dipped 0.13% to $1,312.8 per ounce on May 9. The fall in gold was extended for a number of reasons, including a decrease in overall volatility and rising US Treasury rates. We’ll discuss these factors at length in the next few articles.
Silver traded at $16.40 per ounce, its RSI level was 42.2, and its implied volatility was 17.2%. The drop in gold and silver was primarily due to the revival of the US dollar (UUP). The chart above depicts the inverse relationship between gold and the dollar over the last month.
IAMGOLD (IAG) reported its 1Q18 results after the market closed on May 7. IAG reported EPS (earnings per share) of $0.09, beating the consensus estimate by $0.08. Its revenues also beat the consensus estimate by $14.0 million, coming in at $314.5 million.
Currently, there are many factors playing on gold prices, some of which are bullish while others are bearish. While bulls are taking cues from the recent geopolitical concerns stoked by trade tensions, the Syria attacks, and the whimsical policies of the current US administration, bears are taking solace from the rising US rate hike expectations. While the resistance is close to $1,360 per ounce, the $1,300 per ounce level is seen as the support level.
Usually, precious metal mining companies follow precious metals. Precious metals seem to be in the doldrums over the strength of the US dollar and the Fed’s decision to raise interest rates. The recent slump in demand for haven assets has also affected mining stocks.
If we are right in our late-cycle assessment, gold and gold stocks stand to benefit if the current market, characterized by confidence and complacency, transitions to one filled with risks and volatility. Under the right conditions, it probably won’t take long for the global gold mining sector with a market capitalization of just $250 billion to fill the valuation gap and regain its historic beta to gold. Gold stocks are extremely cyclical.
Yamana Gold’s (AUY) valuation multiple has varied widely between 4.3x and 9.8x over the last five years. Valuation multiples signify what investors are willing to pay for a stock based on analyst estimates. Yamana is currently trading at a forward EV-to-EBITDA (enterprise value to earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization) multiple of 5.6x. This multiple implies a discount of 13.6% to its intermediate peers (GDXJ), including Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM), Eldorado Gold (EGO), IAMGOLD (IAG), and New Gold (NGD).
Yamana Gold (AUY) released its 1Q18 earnings yesterday after the market closed. The company’s gold production exceeded the plan for the first quarter. Its all-in sustaining costs (or AISC) came in at $714 per gold equivalent ounce (or GEO).
Palladium has been the weakest among the four precious metals on a YTD (year-to-date) basis. The fall in car demand in China may be the reason behind the massive palladium price crash. Palladium is inclined more toward industrial use than use as a precious metal due to its many industrial applications.
In this part of our series, we’ll be looking at the correlation of gold to four mining stocks: Pan American Silver (PAAS), Coeur Mining (CDE), Kinross Gold (KGC), and Eldorado Gold (EGO). Mining stocks mostly move with gold prices but not always.
The last one week was choppy for precious metals amid a significant rise in the dollar. Mining stocks have also fallen dramatically due to the slump in gold and silver.
Out of all the factors that can closely affect gold and other precious metals, the US dollar is the most crucial one. The US dollar, depicted by the US Dollar Index (or DXY), rose 0.45% on Wednesday. It has risen 1.7% in the five days to Wednesday. During the same time, gold fell 2.2%, and silver fell 4.3%. The dollar and precious metals move in opposite directions most of the time. On a YTD (year-to-date) basis, gold has risen 1.2%, while the dollar has fallen 1%.
Gold stocks likely to ride on the back of the improving gold industry and put up a decent performance this quarter, as they report on Apr 26.
In this part of our series, we’ll be looking at the correlation of gold to four mining stocks: AngloGold Ashanti (AU), Hecla Mining (HL), Kinross Gold (KGC), and Eldorado Gold (EGO). Mining stocks mostly move with gold prices but not always. Among these four miners, AngloGold has shown the highest correlation to gold, while Eldorado Gold has had a negative correlation to gold on a YTD (year-to-date) basis.
A crucial factor that continues to affect gold is the US dollar. On Wednesday, gold and the US dollar rose 0.15% and 0.12%, respectively. However, these two move in the opposite direction most of the time. On a YTD (year-to-date) basis, gold has risen 3.4%, while the dollar has lost 2.7%.
IAMGOLD (IAG) was the best-performing gold stock of 2017, returning 51.4% for the year. It significantly outperformed the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) as well as the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD). In 2018, however, the equation has somewhat reversed. Its stock has returned -4.5% year-to-date as of April 17.