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Endo International plc (ENDP)

NasdaqGS - NasdaqGS Real Time Price. Currency in USD
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7.23-0.28 (-3.73%)
At close: 4:00PM EST

7.23 0.00 (0.00%)
After hours: 4:41PM EST

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  • c
    charlie
    Here’s an overview for new and potential investors based in my opinion backed up by substantial number of shares. There is currently a downward pressure on the shares which was initially fueled by downbeat guidance and now driven by overall market sentiment and desire by some investors to take profits and watch on the sidelines for a bottom. Nothing has changed about the company from two weeks ago or from two years for that matter other than continued growth of xiaflex and vasoconstric and new applications of xiaflex including much anticipated QWO launch in few weeks, come online due to acquisition of all rights to xiaflex. Most recently Delay in opioid trials and bullish market eased some investors concerns in the short run and drove the rise of shares on low volume. With interest rates perhaps inching up, Endos debt in combination with potential opioid liabilities allowed shorts to get back in and fuel speculations about BK. This is a $30 stock if not for opioid overhang. Debt is normally not a Concern given endos ability to generate cash flows. Most people who are knowledgeable in the situation including lawyers I talked to who are involved in the litigation believe endos eventual liability will not exceed 1.5 B. This is based on understanding of endos limited role in fueling the crisis as reflected by settlements it executed with couple of states and counties which were a fraction of what the big boys paid. With bellwether cases starting soon concerns are back and so is potential for movement in global settlement. The big boys of distributors and pharma companies will shoulder much of the financial burden in future settlement and endo might end up with lower contribution than 1.5 B. These shares will find a bottom soon and trade in a range of 6.5 to 7.5 until new catalysts come into play such as initial sales of QWO, movement on nvax vaccine or Endo settlement with New York or as part of global one. The overall market is a factor here and unpredictable and will impact to certain extent which side of the range we are on. I do believe that we will be over 10 before June and much upward of that depending on any of the catalysts I mentioned.
  • A
    Albert
    Why does anyone other than Rich care about the near-term price fluctuations of ENDP. The Company will generate $1.5B in EBITDA during 2021 (worst case), which implies $15B of Enterprise Value at 10x EBITDA. The market is trading at 11x with much lower growth prospects.

    A $15B enterprise value versus $7.1B in net debt implies $7.9B of equity value right now, versus a market capitalization of $1.72B or ~$31 per share. Assume $2B of opioids present value penalty (which is absurd since MLK precedent was $600M). Even with the $2B penalty, the stock's intrinsic value is: $22.23.

    Using 2020 EPS of $2.87 and a 15x P/E (versus the market's 25x+) equates to a share price of $43. Subtract the $2B of opioids present value penalty ($9 per share) and you are still at $34.

    Rich is destitute. He is a low level, senior-citizen manager at a massive drug company. He is playing with his retirement. THAT IS WHY he becomes hysterical when it declines. He also owns ZERO shares.

    Hopefully, it falls to $5, so I can acquire more...........
  • T
    Tev
    anyone know why we keep sinking??
  • D
    DUFF M
    Guys- Novavax CEO said “ as early as May” provided US will use UK data. If not ,, June/July.
    The main point is NVAX Vaccine appears superior than JNJ and remember vaccines will probably annual, like the flu. We just need a tad more patience
  • l
    lorenzo
    Novavax, efficacy in phase 3 in UK 96%, Emergency Use Authorization for US by May, manufacturing scaled up to tens of millions immediately.
  • T
    TRUMP2024
    ER Friday. Hope the week leading up to it is prosperous for all longs!!! If UK authorizes NVAX that will reflect in ENDP as they have the distribution contract with NVAX. Fingers crossed!! GLTAL
    Bullish
  • D
    DUFF M
    In the large scheme of things, I much prefer a company that under promises and over delivers. Over promising leads to investors not having confidence in management and
    Is far worse than a few days of SP pullback. Remember we were in the $4-5 area after last earnings.
  • c
    charlie
    I am a bullish long term investor here but I have to say it was frustrating listening to the call and as such not surprised by market reaction. I have to say I learned absolutely nothing from listening in and could swear I was listening to last quarters call given how little information these guys put out this morning except for negative outlook. Why have a call if you can’t comment on this or that. Seriously. Why set a low bar on guidance only to bear it every time.

    Despite frustration with the call I heard nothing and see nothing that changes my view on where this company will be in a year or two. I have over 100 k shares and will be looking to add big time if it drops down beyond these levels.
  • E
    EZDUBL
    TEVA and ENDP are in the same boat to a certain extent and both reacted very similarly to the 4th qtr. and 2021 year guidance. I follow and own both. They both offered very conservative guidance despite having a very strong 4th qtr. In both cases they got slammed after earnings. Teva even forcasted an increase in market share of one of its branded drugs(Adjovi)...The reaction in both was due to year guidance and in both cases they had a nice run-up in share price prior to earnings. The opioid litigation is just a huge overhang for both.
    TEVA is a much larger company...being the largest generic pharmaceutical company in the world, is in a better situation for handling the settlement and it can't shake the opioid litigation.

    IMHO the majority of the money from this suit will come from the three big distributors and Johnson and Johnson...these AG's know where thee deep pockets are.

    I don't think its a surprise that Blaise put out conservative guidance...would you put out an upbeat guidance when AG's are trying to get money from you? Kare Schultz's(TEVA's CEO) consevative guidance was also not a surprise(he is always conservative and why give upbeat guidance now, when AG's want money)...

    Since being CEO of TEVA Schulz has beat quarterly guidance every quarter but one...underpromise, over deliver..

    hope we get some traction on Monday, so much depends on the market...during corrections, companies with a lot of debt take more of a beating

    I do think that by the end of the year we will be trading above 15....

    GLTA

    EZ
  • T
    Thomas Jefferson
    BEAT TOP AND BOTTOM LINES. $760 million revenues vs. $647. EPS $0.75 versus $0.48 expected
  • M
    Mathieu
    Qwo sales not included in the 2021 guidance per this morning CC as expected which explains the conservative guidance ... Overreaction here, all is good.
  • T
    Todd
    Better days ahead. We’ve been here before. I’m just super happy NY governor Cuomo is getting his due karma. Man is he something else. Anyone surprised, I’m not.
  • M
    Max
    Come Monday, I'm thinking we can drop another 10%. Somebody please tell me why I'm wrong and why the market is all done punishing ENDP for such a low key 2021 guidance.
    Bullish
  • J
    James
    March 01, 2021
    8:30 am ET
    Endo International stock price target raised to $9 from $6 at Truist
  • B
    B
    There is a law360 article suggesting NY AG opioid trial jury selection is beginning in March. Can anyone who has access to the site paste the article here? I can not find any other source confirming this online so that’s the only news article coming up
  • R
    Ryan
    Time to use mute button...traders got scared and sold, now trying to bash the stock to get in lower.
    Paulson come in and Blaise give us something Mon morning at the JP CC.
  • c
    charlie
    Chin up boys and girls. Nothing has changed as far as fundamentals or strategic view of the company. This selling is way overdone. Give the negative vibes and short sellers another day to work through and we will be back to Green Days.
  • M
    Max
    Endo (NASDAQ:ENDP) is scheduled to announce Q4 earnings results on Thursday, February 25th, after market close.
    Bullish
  • E
    EZDUBL
    right now the 50 day MA is 7.78...it bounced off of it today....over the next few weeks if it does not hold that support it could see 5 as that is the 200 day MA...lets hope we hold the 50 day support!!
    Bullish
  • S
    Subnuc
    It looks like last year they did $2.87 eps. At the current price of $7.93, that's a PE of 2.76 for ttm. What is the average PE on the Nasdaq, like 40? That's not counting those that don't even have PE's. You can double the price and the PE is barely over 5. The guidance that they're allegedly being slammed for was $1.80 to $2.3. Again that's guiding to a forward PE of 3.44 to 4.41. Am I missing something here? I get that there is a lot of debt, but it's easily serviced. Look at their cash flow. The street seems so worried about the guidance. They are guiding lower but by all accounts Q4 2020 had some one time adjustments that made the quarter and year (2020) a whole lot better. I think 2021 guidance was really basically flat. Also this guidance had no input from Qwo and Nvax. Plus, the overall guidance was super conservative. Personally, I believe they continue to sandbag the guidance due to the upcoming opioid trial where they are trying to avoid putting a target on their back. Even given opioids, they have a great case as they pulled their product. In a court, they would appear much less liable than the other players. Ultimately, this is a diamond in the rough and after this #$%$ subsides, 2021 will still be fantastic. I'm looking at a 5 bagger minimum. Bottom line is I haven't seen one development yet that would make me want to sell! Lousy guidance is how these guys roll. Then they follow by a resounding beat. Looking forward to a great Q1 result (probably followed by muted guidance).
    Bullish