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Esperion Therapeutics, Inc. (ESPR)

NasdaqGM - NasdaqGM Real Time Price. Currency in USD
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5.79-0.39 (-6.31%)
At close: 04:00PM EDT
5.80 +0.01 (+0.17%)
After hours: 06:56PM EDT
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  • G
    Gary9912
    Sheldon says they reached 95% last Monday, Sheldon also is VERY confident about the trial. Smart model estimates a 20% reduction, and LDL reduction has been proven in the past to lower CVR. He mentions the glucose lowering and anti inflammatory benefits and wonders if the reduction could be more. He also said that their cash raise positions them to be funded through the CVOT as well as a cash runway beyond that. He mentioned the insurance frustrations and the label restrictions, says a positive trial will fix everything. 👀
  • O
    Oscar
    FYI if anyone is interested: my wife, soon to be 74 and in decent health, has seen her cholesterol creep up through the years from high (200+) to very high (500-). She does not tolerate statins well at all. 3 months of Repatha brought her down to 465+. Her dose was increased to the highest available. Finally, we had an appointment with an excellent cardiologist here in south Florida and I was surprised he suggested and prescribed Nexletol in combo with her therapy. Now to see if insurance approves based on her history. Will check in later with outcomes hereto.
  • G
    Gary9912
    In todays day and age of advanced technology, can anyone approximate just how long it will take to analyze the CVOT data? At one point I remember Joann say they were tracking events in real time, if that’s the case, someone should be able to input this data into a computer after each event (and someone should know how this is all going).
    I know there is a post trial Dr. appointment the participants need to attend. But really how long can all this take? I’m guesstimating that the 100% MACE will be reached before next earnings. So the big question is, will they announce that the trial is over and that they’re just now analyzing data or will they keep it all secret until they have the final results? I remember AMRN reduce-it results came out of nowhere on a Monday morning and destroyed the bears, AMRN’s story could have went better if not for that horrible judge’s ruling to open the door for generics worldwide.
  • A
    Anthony
    The way I see ESPR is that it will likely be purchased before we have blockbuster sales, but trust me, this will be at a pretty high premium. Once the trial ends, which literally can be any day, all will be waiting on top line data release. Daiichi is a perfect suitor, as well as Novartis, but the list of BP is really long. Current valuation of ESPR is around $400m. Potential sales of Bempedoic Acid can be literally 10’s of billions of dollars. Milestone payments alone top $1.2b to ESPR. Heart disease remains the number one killer, there is a proven impact of Covid on heart health, people stopped seeing drs during Covid, there is a proven direct correlation between ldl and events, statin intolerance is real and target ldl levels are met by a very small percentage of patients, and Bempedoic Acid has been proven safe and is complimentary to statins. All we need is data which is being released soon and frankly, we don’t need much to have this a home run (just look at PCSK9’s and their $3b sales a year and disappointing trials).

    Daiichi already will owe milestone payments exceeding ESPR’s market cap. Why not take it all once data is released? Of course, ESPR management will only sell on run up of stock, multiples applied, making everyone happy. Wouldn’t be surprised if a Novartis wants to capture the heart health market and places a counter bid.

    I get many people lost interest in ESPR after the earlier hype when the share price couldn’t be sustained. I blame investment banks on that. But given the situation now, I just don’t see many better value plays in the market.
  • j
    james
    If things go as purported by Esperion management, then the final heart attack or stroke required to end the clear outcomes trial should occur in Q3 or early Q4 of this year. Management has stated that it will take about 3 to 6 months to analyze the data and then get together a filing to the FDA for a label change. The amount of time it takes to file this will be an indication of what the results show clearly vs. what they have to try to dig out of the data and make a case for. In any event, the FDA will query on Esperion's findings and they will go back and forth for about 10 months and finally a decision on label change will be received. If they do get a label change, then Esperion will need to relaunch its sales effort. Key in the sales effort will be lobbying each of the major insurers to begin paying for the pills without prior authorization. This process is likely to take about a year to put in place and perhaps another year before results are seen in the form of increased sale.

    This brings us firmly into 2026 but of course the company will require billions in funding between here and there which is always a risk.
  • G
    Gary9912
  • j
    james
    I am worried that Daiichi Sankyo will pull out of their distribution deal. Let's face it, they can't be happy. They've paid over $300 million and probably spent a similar amount in ramping up their massive sales and marketing organization and yet they are only generating revenue of about $5 million per quarter through the entire European network. You can tell this because Esperion is only receiving about $.5 million in royalties. What a disaster!

    I worry that they may try to claim they were misled about the prospects for bempedoic acid. You might recall that Esperion management was sued by investors for not releasing the fact that they did not get a proactive label for their drug, perhaps they did the same thing to DS? Another lawsuit would be devestating, particularly with the cash position being so bad.

    So many problems.
  • G
    Gary9912
    I’ll get out in front of this one. “ “Insider selling” Eric Warren disposed of 196 shares, No James, he doesn’t think the company is in trouble, the word on the street is that he has a diesel motorhome and needed to fill up the tank for a family trip. 🤣
  • j
    james
    The definition of insanity is the continuation of a negative behavior over and over. Why, oh why, doesn't Sheldon stop doing these investor conferences! They are repeatedly met with a 5-10% drop in the value of the shares. If he continues this negative behavior, investors can look forward to a move to the pink sheets even more rapidly than would otherwise be anticiapted.
  • G
    Gary9912
  • A
    Anthony
    Bempedoic Acid is the real deal and we only need the CLEAR Outcomes data to support it.

    It is noteworthy that BA was associated with a significant reduction in the risk of developing new-onset diabetes or sustaining significant worsening of diabetes (OR 0.59).2 This is important as statins have been associated with a small increase in this risk. The risk reduction with BA may be due to the anti-inflammatory effect of reduced AMPK phosphorylation caused by BA

    https://wchh.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/pdi.2380
    Click on the article title to read more.
    Click on the article title to read more.
    wchh.onlinelibrary.wiley.com
  • G
    Gary9912
    Generics are launching in India and the drug is flying off the shelves in some parts of the U.S. I have to wait for my Nexlizet refill, I was advised it’s out of stock here in Ohio at my local pharmacy!!! What the heck will happen if we get an impressive CVOT??? Anyone ??? 📈🆙↗️
  • j
    james
    I fear theat even if Clear Outcomes show positive impact in reducing adverse events, concerns about gout and other side effects may require lengthy additional studies. We must remember that the first obligation is to do no harm.
  • G
    Gary9912
    Vanguard and Blackrock recently added to their positions here.

    If there are any humanitarians left on this board, perhaps they should reach out to those funds and warn them…🤷‍♂️😂
  • G
    Gary9912
  • A
    Anthony
    You have to love the price action. Yes the XBI was up today, but it is still near 5 year lows and under $70. With ESPR’s share price approaching $6, it really is decoupling from other, higher risk biotech stocks. This makes sense, as the TAM is known to be the biggest in the industry as heart disease is the #1 killer even over cancer and Covid, bempedoic acid works, ESPR is ending a historic 5 year trial with over 14,000 patients, and dr’s are looking for combination therapies to meet target goals of LDL. Add additional benefits of reducing inflammation and blood sugar which is complimentary to statins, and this can be HUGE. Don’t take my word for it:

    “Bempedoic acid has also shown to have good results in patients not able to tolerate statins and those who do not respond to statins. This is a huge unmet healthcare need”

    With good data, this really can be a blockbuster. With its low product pricing, it can be a first line treatment with statins. Don’t forget the rule of 6 for statins: every doubling of statin dose reduces ldl by approximately 6%. To avoid myalgia, -muscle complications-statin doses have to be kept lower. Bempedoic acid with ezetimibe is the answer as it is complimentary to each other and is additive to statins. The market is HUGE!

    Someday soon, some smart investment analyst will figure it out and the rest will be history. Of course, all assuming good data but trial design couldn’t be better.

    But, as everyone knows, you just don’t know what the future holds. We can only make educated guesses through analysis, but it is hard not to get excited at this opportunity.
  • u
    umamamia
    (ZYNE) MCap $34 mil ...BIG Cannabis Play trading UNDER Cash with Blockbuster Pipeline near data readout =1000% OPP
    https://assets.wallstreet-online.de/_media/8763/board/20220328161124-screenshot-2022-03-28-at-16-10-45-powerpoint-pres.png

    ###
  • G
    Gary9912
    An investor on a another message board paints a rosy picture of the cash runway going forward.

    https://stocktwits.com/Benderdia/message/460359368
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