Euronav NV (EURN)

What value investors do not understand about Euronav is the long term intrinsic value of the stock. The stock does represent value as an income stock but over the next two years will have substantial capital appreciation. Currently, and for past several years this has been a 'traders' stock and still is treated that way in many ways. The stock has a history of volatility with uneven, although often spectacular, dividend growth. The company is a constant in asset growth variously shedding old ships and adding new ones in the range of fifteen years. Asset growth has also been assisted by good debt management, paying down old debt while financing new or newer ships with new debt at low rates. All of the ships are also well maintained to the most modern standards. Companies like NAT buy older ships in the 10-25 years age group and hold them until they run them onto the beaches in India for scrap. EURNONAV, with some special exceptions, does not keep ships past 15 years. In the next 5 years there will be fewer VLCCs built. There will be fewer Sueszmax ships built. One reason is owners do not have a clear picture on what the furture for hardware looks like. We are now entering an era of ships powered by LNG, hydrogen and even electricity (solar panels or hybrids). The age of crew-less ships is at hand. For safety you would still have a captain, engineer and pilot. Navigation and even docking will be computer and satellite controlled. The end of the age of intoxicated people on the bridge. They may be there but not driving the ship, to shareholders relief. I note I doubt Euronav ever had this problem. Anyway, clear skies and calm seas ahead. A happy investor.

share buyback ongoing : 10% could be reached in 6 weeks at this ritm
the first six days 1,5% was bought at an average rpice of 7,5 euro. i expect a similar volume for this week at an average of 7.65, confirmation on Friday
in Belgium, there is a very actif 'conversations ' forum (>1 milion euronav 2020 forum vieuws)
Some are extremely bullish ands see a complementary growth an profit rate resulting of the shar buybacks. the fleet evaluated based on a newbuilding price of 70% of the price results in a share value of 9$ and based on the average tce earnings published by Poten, the q2 results will result in a very high dividend yield (income very near to approx 60x180xtce/day)
60: is a recalculation for other fleet income from fso and suezmax representing 26% of the fleet. 20% of the fleet is on time charters, especially 4 recent suezmax, fso, and contango-time opportunities
Hugo de stoop, ceo also sees opportunities in 'after oil' water transport and related services...
for the long term, the investment return on new tankers is a solid capital base, undervalued and a reasonable long-term debt: cash postion announced at end q2 of … >1 billion
the ceo expect a small growth for the coming years. As a formal Greenpeace activist, he accepted transforming the company into a sustainable company, believing in consolidation of the sector into less fragmented entities. absorbing gener8 ships by cession of owned shares and cash is actually also a possibility, even absorbing companies of almost same size...

EXTREMELY IMPORTANT RE DIVIDEND POLICY

Thanks to a heads up from G , I got pointed into the proper direction regarding dividend policy. My broker TD Ameritrade was not aware of this. They are researching this now.

Belgian withholding tax on dividends distributed by Euronav NV
Draft – May 10, 2017
The content of this document is purely for general information and illustrative purposes. It is not intended to be complete. Please consult your tax advisor regarding the Belgian withholding tax treatment of dividends distributed by Euronav NV, the availability of reduced withholding tax rates or exemptions and the procedure to claim such reduced withholding tax rates or exemptions in your situation.
Belgian withholding tax: standard rate, reduced rates and exemptions
The gross amount of dividends distributed by Euronav NV is, in principle, subject to Belgian dividend withholding tax (WHT) at the rate of 30%. This applies to Euronav NV shares listed on Euronext Brussels and NYSE. However, subject to conditions and documentation requirements, reduced WHT rates or WHT exemptions may be available under Belgian domestic tax law or applicable double tax treaties (DTT). We therefore recommend you to contact your broker or tax advisor for personal advice and guidance to reclaim any overpaid withholding tax.
A reduced rate or an exemption can be applied but not limited in the following scenarios:
Reduced rates or exemption under the DTT between the U.S. and Belgium: In certain cases, a reduced rate or an exemption can be applied for dividends distributed by Euronav NV to a U.S. resident holder of Euronav NV shares (i) who beneficially owns the dividends, (ii) who does not hold the shares through a permanent establishment in Belgium, and (iii) who is entitled to claim benefits under the DTT between the U.S. and Belgium, the WHT rate is reduced from 30% to 15% of the gross amount of the dividends. For dividends distributed to U.S. resident companies that directly hold at least 10% of the voting rights of Euronav NV the WHT rate is reduced to 5%. U.S. resident pension funds benefit from an exemption from Belgian WHT. Please consult the important notice under the dividend section on the website for further guidance.
Reduced rates or exemption under other DTTs concluded by Belgium: Most DTTs concluded by Belgium provide for a reduction of the Belgian WHT rate on dividends to 15% or 10%. In some cases, a reduced rate of 5% or full exemption may be available.
Exemption for participations of at least 10%: Belgian domestic law implementing the EU Parent Subsidiary Directive provides for an exemption from dividend withholding tax for dividends distributed to qualifying companies (i) which are resident in the EU or in a jurisdiction with which Belgium has concluded a DTT that includes an exchange of information clause, and (ii) which hold (or will hold) a minimum participation of 10% for at least one year.
Re

from AGM Q and A 10% buy back is a "go" statement below

Answer:

Euronav strongly believes that having authority to repurchase its own shares provides
management and the board with a strong mechanism to deliver lasting value to our
stakeholders. The above are most common examples of the use of shares bought back.
However, that list is not exhaustive. Indeed, buying shares back and retaining them as an asset
rather than cancelling them provides maximum optionality going forward as these held shares
can be used to create further value – for instance in purchasing another tanker fleet or
company. Therefore, in repurchasing our own shares Euronav management intend to retain
all options in what remains a very dynamic tanker market. The company however does not
and will not use the authorization to be employed as a “poison pill” or block to the generation
of shareholder value

$NAT $EURN $DHT

Isn't it possible that investors are overreacting just a wee bit in all their selling of oil tanker stocks today?

After all, Nordic American Tankers CEO Herbjorn Hansson just finished telling investors that he's making "tons of money" chartering boats to oil traders. If this is true for one company offering essentially a commodity service (oil storage), then it seems logical it would hold true for Frontline and Tsakos as well.

Nordic American is making so much money, in fact, that Hansson expects to pay off the company's whole $400 million debt load with the cash flowing in. That's not a boast I'd expect the CEO to make if the trend in higher charter rates was something that could be upset by a one-day wobble in oil prices.

To the contrary, comments from The Wall Street Journal (today), to the effect that "the world is awash with too much oil" and that "coronavirus lockdowns on driving, flying and industrial activity have all but eliminated the need for the stuff" suggest that even if stock prices of oil shipping companies are down today, the problem of where to store "too much oil" has not been solved -- and these stock prices will go right back up again in relatively short order.

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/why-frontline-tsakos-energy-and-nordic-american-tanker-stocks-dropped-10-and-more-today

Scorpio Tankers Inc. Announces Purchase of Common Shares by Scorpio Services Holding Limited and Call Options by President of the Company
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July 14, 2020 18:51 ET | Source: Scorpio Tankers Inc.
MONACO, July 14, 2020 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Scorpio Tankers Inc. (NYSE:STNG) (“Scorpio Tankers,” or the “Company”) announced that Scorpio Services Holdings Limited (“SSH”), a related party, has purchased 100,000 common shares of the Company in the open market at an average price of $12.83 per share.

Company buy-back. EURN first, then STNG... just show how firmly they believe in the industry. Who's next? Maybe NAT?

$NAT $EURN $DHT $STNG $TNP $TK

To understand the tanker operators you need to understand the age of their ships. The life of ships is considered 25 years. The extended life is 30 years. Ships over 15 years are considered 'vintage'. Vintage ships cost more to repair and upgrade, as well as costing more to insure. Big customers have to consider the risk of using vintage ships. Big guys pay more for newer ships and less risk. Companies like NAT have many vintage ships. EURN and DHT try to keep ship age to under 15 years. Vintage ships tend to lose value as they approach use as storage and scrap. Ships 15 years and under can be traded in a market that still values them as in use for their ;highest purpose', which is shipping crude. With inflation, newer tankers will increase in value similar to real estate or other real assets.