|Day's Range||1.126 - 1.133|
|52 Week Range||1.0655 - 1.1496|
The Euro initially rally during the week, pulled back from the 200 week EMA, and then rallied again to close out a choppy week. This is normal for this pair.
The Euro continues to be very choppy during the Friday session as markets have nowhere to be. At this point, it appears that we are stuck in consolidation.
The direction of the EUR/USD the rest of the session on Friday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the main 50% level at 1.1295.
EUR/USD briefly traded at a fresh 4-week high yesterday before sellers stepped in to hold the currency pair within its broader range.
Bulgaria and Croatia have entered the euro area’s waiting room, joining the Exchange Rate Mechanism II, a system for managing exchange rate fluctuations and smoothing the path of entry into the single currency. The decision was confirmed on Friday by euro area finance ministers, the European Central Bank, and Denmark, a longstanding ERM-2 member, after official convergence reports indicated that both countries' economies were sufficiently in synch with the euro area's. Christine Lagarde, the ECB's president, said that Bulgaria and Croatia had taken “a big step today on the path towards joining the euro area”.
U.S. stocks are set to open lower Friday, amid continuing concerns about the growth of coronavirus cases and its impact on the prospects for economic recovery ahead of the upcoming earnings season. At 7:10 AM ET (1110 GMT), S&P 500 Futures traded 5 points, or 0.2%, lower, Nasdaq Futures down 5 points, or 0.1%. The Dow Futures contract fell 55 points, or 0.2%.
The direction of the EUR/USD the rest of the session is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the 50% level at 1.1278.
"The question is whether Fitch decides to be tough and downgrade Italy. We expect that it will remain on hold given that the ECB and EU are showing strong support for Italy through QE and the expected recovery fund," said Danske Bank.
* EUR/USD retreats from the 1.1370 as market sentiment deteriorates. * US Initial Jobless Claims came in better than expected but were largely ignored. * The pair needs to hold above 20-day SMA to keep focus on the upside.After reaching a fresh four-week high during the Asian session at 1.1370, EUR/USD came under pressure and accelerated to the downside in the New York trade, turning negative for the day. A bout of dollar demand, a retreat in Wall Street indexes made the market mood swing evident. Renewed concerns about the COVID-19 pandemic, coupled with a Supreme Court ruling granting access to a New York Prosecutor to US President Donald Trump's tax returns, cast a shadow over investors.US data failed to boost market mood and went largely unnoticed. There were 1,314,000 initial claims for unemployment benefits in the US during the week ending July 4th, following the previous week's print of 1,413,000 (revised from 1,427,000) and slightly better than the market expectation of 1,375,000.The EUR/USD pair retreated sharply from its daily peak of 1.1370 and slid back below the 1.1300 mark. The pullback also sent the pair back below a descending trendline coming from February 2018 highs, questioning bulls' ability to sustain the upmove. The short-term technical picture has deteriorated, with indicators falling below their mid-lines in the 4-hour chart. However, the bias remains slightly bullish in the daily chart, with 1.1400 as the next target. The EUR/USD needs to hold above the 20-day SMA at 1.1255 to keep focus on the upside, while a loss of this level could point to a deeper correction to the 1.1190-70 area. Support levels: 1.1255 1.1190 1.1168Resistance levels: 1.1370 1.1400 1.1422View Live Chart for the EUR/USDSee more from Benzinga * AUD/USD Forecast: Resurgent Coronavirus Contagions Weigh On The Aussie * EUR/USD Forecast: Comfortable Around 1.1300 * AUD/USD Forecast: Neutral-To-Bullish In The Short-Term And Heading Towards 0.7063(C) 2020 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.
The Euro shot higher yet again on Thursday but continues to find plenty of resistance above in what has been difficult trading as of late.
(Bloomberg) -- Regardless of what the spread of the coronavirus does to demand for risk, market indicators suggest the euro will rise.The common currency is inching toward a close above its 200-week average for the first time in a year. A convincing break would be the latest in a string of signals from traders that the momentum behind the euro’s third monthly advance -- for the first time in more than two years -- is growing.What’s driving the rally is optimism over the European Union’s handling of the virus, including talks of a joint recovery fund, and governments’ relatively swift implementations of lockdowns. That stands in contrast to the pandemic response from across the Atlantic.The euro area’s recession as a result of those lockdowns probably won’t be as deep as previously feared, according to some European policy makers. Meanwhile, with the virus spreading across the U.S., which took time to implement lockdowns, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic suggested that economic activity in parts of the country is showing signs of leveling off.This divergence in views from policy makers in the U.S. and EU, together with central banks worldwide backstopping financial markets with unprecedented stimulus, has weighed on Bloomberg’s dollar index.The gauge has fallen three straight months, the longest such run in more than a year. It measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, of which the euro accounts for about a third.Betting that the euro will gain over the next six months against the dollar now comes at a premium, as shown by so-called risk reversal options. While these signaled bearish sentiment on the common currency in recent months, this week they turned the most positive since March.The SignsA close above its 200-weekly moving average would be the euro’s first in a year. Should it surpass a key resistance level at the June 10 high of $1.1422, it will be trading at the highest in four months.Propelling the euro forward is the strongest bullish sentiment since 2018, with bulls taking over the price action for six straight weeks, the longest streak this year, according to Bloomberg’s Fear/Greed indicator.Bloomberg’s option probability calculator shows the common currency is 50% more likely to trade above $1.15 in a week’s time than to drop below $1.12.NOTE: Vassilis Karamanis is an FX and rates strategist who writes for Bloomberg. The observations he makes are his own and are not intended as investment adviceFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2020 Bloomberg L.P.
EUR/USD rallied to fresh highs not seen since early June in Asian trading but has since pared back some of its gains.
Euro zone officials are ready to let Croatia and Bulgaria into the ERM-2 mechanism, a preliminary stage for adopting the euro as their currency in the next three years, four sources told Reuters. The move would pave the way for the first enlargement of the euro zone since 2015, when Lithuania joined the currency bloc, which now has 19 members. European officials said a decision was imminent after a final backing from euro zone and EU finance ministers, who hold video conferences later on Thursday and Friday.
Daily forecast and trading signals of forex majors, commodities, cryptocurrencies and indices.
EUR/USD is bullish and we might see 1.1410 hit. However, the pair is sitting at important resistance.
European stock markets traded higher Thursday, with healthy results from software giant SAP (DE:SAPG) pointing to an economic recovery but investors remain wary of the mounting coronavirus cases ahead of the new earnings season. Helping the German index outperform Thursday were strong gains from SAP, up 7.5% at a new all-time high, with the business software giant posting a rise of 8% in its second quarter operating profit, helped by a recovery in software license revenue in the Asia Pacific and Japan region. Elsewhere, fashion retailer boohoo.com (LON:BOOH) shares bounced sharply after its biggest shareholder, Jupiter Fund Management (LON:JUP), delivered a vote of confidence in the company by raising its stake to over 10%.
Elsewhere, the USD/CNY pair slid 0.2% to 6.9878. The yuan was boosted by better-than expected inflation data for June, with producer prices falling 3% year-on-year. The drop in the PPI was smaller compared with the previous month’s drop of 3.7% and the 3.2% drop analysts had generally forecast. However, the pair is being supported most by the rally in Chinese stocks, which continued for an eighth straight day on Thursday.
European stock markets are set to edge higher Thursday, with investors hopeful of more government help to sustain the economic recovery while remaining wary of the mounting coronavirus cases ahead of the new earnings season. At 2:05 AM ET (0605 GMT), the DAX futures contract in Germany traded 0.2% higher. CAC 40 futures in France were up 0.8%, while the FTSE 100 futures contract in the U.K. rose 0.6%.
It’s a relatively quiet day on the economic calendar. Expect the weekly jobless claims from the U.S, Brexit, and COVID-19 to draw attention.
Bulgaria and Croatia have been accepted into Exchange Rate Mechanism II, a precursor to adopting the euro as their currency over the next three years, the European Central Bank said in a statement on Friday. The central rate of the Bulgarian lev has been set 1.95583 against the euro while the Croatian kuna's central rate was set at 7.53450, the ECB said.
Euro has rallied on Wednesday as we continue to dance around the 1.13 handle in general. The market probably finds plenty of reasons to go sideways yet again.
The direction of the EUR/USD on Wednesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the 50% levels at 1.1295 and 1.1265.
EUR/USD traded unchanged shortly after the European open and volatility may be subdued into North American trading.