|Day's Range||1.165 - 1.174|
|52 Week Range||1.1111 - 1.2558|
The EUR/USD pair initially try to rally during the week but found enough resistance above the turnaround of form yet another negative candle. Because of this, it looks like we are going to wipe out the entirety of the move to the upside, and I think it’s only a matter of time before that happens.
The Euro fell again during the Freddie session, as we continue the longer-term downtrend against the greenback. The greenback of course being one of the world strongest fiat currencies right now continues to push against other currencies such as the common one.
Investing.com – The U.S. dollar rose to a sixth-month high as mostly positive U.S. durable goods data suggested the U.S. economy was strong enough to sustain further Fed rate hikes.
The U.S. dollar strengthened against most of its main rivals Friday in New York, as a popular gauge of the currency hit a fresh 2018 high, and as traders digested a week in which the Federal Reserve signaled that it may adopt a more measured approach to hiking interest rates even if inflation runs ahead of its 2% annual target. An escalation of tensions between the U.S. and North Korea, which appeared to ease somewhat early in the session, and trade talks with Washington and Beijing contributed to a week marked by up-and-down trade. The ICE U.S. Dollar Index (IFUS:DX-Y.NYB), which gauges the U.S. unit against a half-dozen currencies, was up 0.5% at 94.197, headed for 0.6% return on the week.
After this week’s selloff in Italian sovereign debt, 90% of the country’s high-grade corporate bonds now earn a lower yield than government paper, according to an analysis by Bank of America Merrill Lynch. In other words, investors appear to view Italian corporate bonds as less risky than their government peers. Backed by the full faith and credit of the government, with its tax-raising abilities, government debt should usually feature a lower yield than those offered by corporate debt to reflect a lower risk of nonpayment.
On Friday North Korean leader Kim Jong Un said he was still open to talks after the White House said in a statement that it would be "inappropriate" to have a planned summit at this time. Trump and Kim Jong Un were set to meet in Singapore on June 12 to discuss possible denuclearization. Durable goods in the U.S. fell 1.7% in April, compared to expectations of a 1.4% decrease while a separate report showed that the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index was revised down to 98.0 from 98.8.
The EUR/USD moved lower on Friday ahead of a potential no-confidence vote against Spanish Prime Minister Rajoy, unless he calls for snap elections. The drop in the currency pair comes despite a better than expected German IFO report. A softer than expected U.S. Durable Goods orders report took some of the luster out of the Greenback. The EUR/USD attempted to move higher but was rejected near resistance at the December lows near 1.1725, and quickly started to move lower.
The momentum is clearly to the downside. The daily chart indicates that if this were to continue we could see an eventual test of the main bottom at 1.1553. There is no major support between the current price and this level.
The greenback was flat on Friday while the pound inched down as investors looked ahead to testimony from Fed Chair Jerome Powell and Bank of England Governor Mark Carney. Both Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and BOE Governor Mark Carney are expected to participate in a panel discussion of "Financial Stability and Central Bank Transparency" at the "Sveriges Riskbank Conference: 350 Years of Central Banking - The Past, The Present and The Future" in Stockholm, Sweden at 9:15 AM ET (13:15 GMT). The dollar was also held back by Fed meeting notes on Wednesday that suggested that while another interest rate hike is warranted, the central bank would accept inflation rising above its target rate for a while.
The Euro has rallied a bit during the Thursday’s session against dollar using 1.17 level as support. The pair moved slightly higher during the yesterday’s session reaching towards the 1.34 level. The pair traded on a quiet note and hanged around the 0.7550 level during the yesterday’s session.
Before Italy’s general election in March, strategists said the worst-case scenario for equity markets would be an anti-establishment coalition government. Giuseppe Conte is on track to become the new prime minister, with a pair of populist parties — the 5 Star Movement and the League — picking the little-known law professor as a compromise candidate to head their coalition. The new government represents “the worst-case scenario,” with its plans worrying investors, but there are some reassuring factors, said Seema Shah, an investment strategist at Principal Global Investors.
The Euro rallied slightly during the day on Thursday, as we have perhaps fallen a bit too far into short of an amount of time. I think that the market is recognizing the 1.17 level as short-term support, but clearly we are in a downtrend.
Traders also booked profits on the notion that the recent rally had run its course especially after the release of dovish Fed minutes on Thursday that signaled the central bank would not be as aggressive when raising interest rates in 2018.
Euro zone finance ministers will decide next month on all measures, including further debt relief, needed for Greece to exit its bailout successfully, their chairman said on Thursday. For the June 21 talks to be successful, Athens has to pursue the last reforms agreed with euro zone creditors to put its economy on a firmer growth path. If Greece delivers on the final batch of reforms, the euro zone will be able to disburse new loans that will not only cover its immediate needs, but also create a cash buffer to keep it liquid after the bailout ends.
Investing.com – The dollar was hit by a fresh wave of selling Thursday, losing ground against its rivals following negative U.S. data showing a slowdown in the U.S. housing and labor market.
The greenback remained lower on Thursday after an unexpected dovish-tone in the latest Federal Reserve meeting minutes and news that the White House had called off a planned summit with North Korea. The White House said in a statement that it would be "inappropriate" to have a planned summit at this time. Trump and North Korea leader Kim Jong Un were set to meet in Singapore on June 12 to discuss possible denuclearization.
The EUR/USD rebounded following Wednesday’s FOMC meeting minutes which showed that the Fed was willing to let inflation run above their target for a while. The ECB’s Praet said that the slowdown in Europe reflects supply constraints while the ECB Constancio said that the rise in Italian bond yields was a concern. French Business confidence was mixed and German confidence fell. ECB’s Praet says the slowdown reflects supply constraints, adding that economic conditions are good despite clouds on the horizon.
Investing.com - Minutes from the European Central Bank's April 26 policy meeting released Thursday revealed that policymakers were confident that inflation would return to the 2% target in the medium term, while they recognized that markets expected that the asset purchase program would be concluded by the end of this year.
Investing.com - Sterling was higher on Thursday after UK retail sales came in higher than expected, boosting confidence in the economy.UK retail sales rose 1.6% in April, compared to expectations for a 0.1% gain, the Office for National Statistics reported. The unexpected increase indicates consumer confidence in the UK economy, despite political uncertainty surrounding Brexit.GBP/USD surged 0.46% to a one-day high of 1.3410 as of 4:43 AM ET (8:43 GMT).The euro was also higher, but was held back by economic and political worries in Europe. ...
Based on the early trade, the direction of the EUR/USD is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the former bottom at 1.1712.
The market continued to remain weak and negative during the Wednesday’s session breaking below the 1.17 level. By going below this level, the market is more likely to fall towards its next major support level at 1.15 level underneath. Short-term rallies in the market will be an excellent opportunity to sell this market as it offers value in the USD. …Read MoreGBP/USD
European Central Bank Vice President Vitor Constancio speaks risks facing markets, financial resilience in the euro zone and Italian politics.