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Entravision Communications Corporation (EVC)

NYSE - NYSE Delayed Price. Currency in USD
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6.85+0.05 (+0.74%)
At close: 4:01PM EDT
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  • Pulcrum est mundus, qui non parum conducant legit. http://dataunion.tistory.com/7383

    MAY-2016 Entravision Communication NYSE : EVC Correlation Histogram
    X axis : Stocks Price Correlation Coefficient Y axis : Quantity of stocks May-2016 1,000 Day Parameter 4,338 NYSE Stocks Price Analysis This stock mode of correlation coefficient is 0.8 In other words, the correlation coefficient of the other stocks
  • Wanted to clarify a few things. I never said EVC would be $6 or $7 by last Friday. I said I would not be surprised to see it there. I would not be surprised to see it this week either. I have said for some time now this is a $7+/- stock unless. I have said greater opportunities lie in SBGI, GTN and TGNA. Here are some bullets to consider:
    1) EVC was paying 60% reverse comp which was already the highest in sector. Numbers indicate they are paying Univision even more now.
    2) Worst managed company in sector.
    3) Radio is about 35-40% of their revenue that's losing money or marginal at best so not typical broadcaster.
    4) The Headway acquisition was reported as costing $11.5 million. They never told investors they might end up paying almost $50 million.
    5) They have said they plan to use about 1/3 of their $264 million to pay down 5% debt. Stupid. They should be buying assets with double digit returns. They say another 1/3 for M&A. That's scary. They overpaid $200 million for radio assets. Overpaid for Pulpo which is now negative revenue numbers and appears they overpaid for Headway as well.
    6) I could go on and on but the fact that Bostonsonics bought at $6.40 and is wrong 98% of the time tells you all you need to know. Worth buying below $6 if you want a 50 cent or dollar return. DaninFW
  • Sold 62,000+ shares yesterday in last 10 minutes of trading at $5.35-$6.40 and last block of 32,661 shares a little while ago for $6.475. Moving on. As I have said for years this is worst managed local broadcaster in sector. It was always about eh spectrum money when the FCC not me estimated their spectrum to be worth $2-4 billion at one time. I and others that kept averaging down did quite well. I made a little over $250K on this last trade. I don't get excited when something drops that I buy. I just buy more and make more later. Idiots like Boston gets excited when he make a nickel or dime a share and darn near a stroke when he makes a quarter. I have started taking a position in TGNA as of a few days ago at 40,000 shares at average of $14.47. Hoping to buy more even cheaper. A block of 1,498,300 TGNA crossed at 414.45 at 10:32:48 this morning and big seller there may now be gone. GTNA popped after that. GLTA and will look at EVC again below $6 if before they receive the money. DaninFW
  • I am currently waiting to liquidate remaining EVC shares at $6.50-$6.55 range. Still sitting on cash and waiting for TGNA to drop to $14.50 buy100,000+/- shares. My friend Boston proves to be an idiot again and just shorted (he says) GTN. He says SBGI is one of his favorite stocks and down 19.16% from it's 52 week high which is second worst in sector. He was wrong again on that call while GTN is down the least of any in sector which he said was the worst in sector. He was wrong again. Do the opposite of what he says and get rich. I actually like SBGI at these prices not at $42+ when he was touting it. Something may well be up with EVC but I see more upside elsewhere. DaninFW
  • For the record since boston can't read........I recommended selling EVC about $6.30-$6.35 and to buy GTNA below $14.50.
    It is funny that he thinks as long as his stock drops or pops a dime in a week or so he is a genius but he expects my recommendations to go up $6-10 in one day. What an idiot. I do think GTNA, GTN and SBGI will go up 30-50% next 6-12 months. Wish it would do it tomorrow. Also, Marci Ryvicker, #1 analyst for sector has a PT of $55 on SBGI which is 68.45% higher than closing price today. I try to be conservative at 50%.
    A friend of mine and I determined yesterday that boston actually posts with five other id's we had missed. He now has at least 8 known aliases. He sometimes attacks himself so he can "defend" himself. I like to read his posts to do the opposite of what he says since that's what he does also. DaninFW
  • Just a wild thought today. I
    sold the 143,700 shares yesterday literally in last 5-6
    minutes of trading. Didn't dent the stock other than it
    might have closed at $6.35+. A big buyer is buying all they
    can. Market maker took in first 200,000+/- shares traded
    yesterday at $6.15-$6.20+/-. He is taking out the weak
    hands. If big buyer keeps pushing price up I can't help but
    think that West Face will dump. I suspect they watched it
    closely last week. Yet, WF may know something now and
    holding on. WF has sold 500,000+/- shares one quarter and
    bought them back the next.
    I now have a new scenario that would
    actually make sense. Televisa which provides virtually all
    programming to Univision wants to buy 49% in their IPO which
    keeps getting pushed back. Televisa could make a play for
    Entravision and offer to buy 49% of it as well and then let
    Univision buy the other 51% down the road after the IPO.
    Televisa could also use their clout to force Univision to
    cut a better retran deal with EVC for 50/50 instead of
    current deal that looks like 65/35. Friday EVC finally
    crossed their 200 DMA which they haven't done in a year or
    so. This next week will tell the tale. I think next Friday
    EVC will be under $6 or close to $7. GLTA DaninFW
  • I sold almost 200,000 shares EVC Thursday and Friday at $6.30-$6.35. Still holding just under 100,000 shares now. I still have PT of $7 but now just 10% upside. I think GTN, TGNA and SBGI all have 30-50% upside from here. There may well be something in the works and $8 PT if Univision decides to buy them. Still 8-10 weeks+ before they get the cash. Just see 10% upside and 10% downside from here. GLTA DaninFW
  • I think EVC might have reached its upward limit and that a pullback may be possible. I started receiving notifications from AWEsome_STOCKS the other week and so far they have presented interesting new trade ideas.
  • Looks like West Face is still dumping their position but someone is buying every single share. There has been six blocks this morning traded all at $6.025 for 226,700 shares:
    20,000 @10:38:41
    44,800 @ 10:39:20
    50,000 @ 10:42:12
    18,100 @ 10:43:13
    40,700 @ 11:04:09
    53,100 @ 11:04:34
  • After market closed, American Capital the #1 EVC shareholder announced as of 5-31-17 they went over 10% at 10.03% of all outstanding shares of EVC. They owned 6,072,286 shares as of end of Q1 (3-31-17) and are now at 6,624,835 shares. I am not 100% sure but I think once you go over 10% you have only a few days to announce whenever you add any new shares and must report the same once you ever go under 10% again. It's a whole new game when you go over 10%. I think they should have reported this days ago but suspect they were confused as there is 90 million shares of total shares with three different classes. Univision has almost 9 million U shares and there are about 66 million common shares leaving about 15 million class a super voting. To me this is a strong vote of confidence as American Capital loaded up in Q1 to become largest shareholder without knowing how many spectrum dollars EVC was getting. They now know and are still buying more. EVC might pop tomorrow. DaninFW
  • Mike, in regard to SBSAA, keep in mind all outstanding shares at $1.20 a share is only market cap of $8.72 million. Sure, EVC could cut a deal and pay $2 a share and retire the bonds and only cost $15 million+/- to keep it out of bankruptcy. But, I am not sure the bondholders will take a haircut. Company IMVHO is not worth $415+ million and accrued interest which is probably another $50-75+ million before deal could get done. EVC management is well known to way overpay for their deals but surely they would not be that stupid again. My point is if they file bankruptcy the stock could go from $1.20 to less than a quarter in one day. I consider this a high risk stock. If EVC is stupid enough to pay $2+/- a share for worthless stock and full value for the bonds we better sell EVC quick. Another thought is CEO of EVC also got $136 million from selling his tv station in L.A and together the CEO and EVC have $400 million cash from the auction. HHHMMMMMM
  • EVC has said they plan to stick to
    their current approved plan with +\- 1/3 each to debt
    repayment, m&a and return to shareholders. The last
    could actually be special dividend or share repurchase. I am
    expecting a special one time dividend. But, they could for
    instance also buy back the Univision shares owned by
    Univision. The one thing that could throw this off is they
    have to invest $264 million in tv assets or pay taxes on
    that amount. If they pay $88 million down in debt, $88
    million returned to shareholders that only leaves $88 million
    to buy $264 million in tv assets. What they say they are
    going to do just doesn't add up. However, the almost $3 a
    share in cash is real. I think the low stock price reflects
    concerns for their plans.
  • Just noticed a block of 70,000 EVC just crossed at 13:01:48 at $5.925. I suspect that it's West Face trying to get out. They dumped 1,485,071 shares in Q1 and dropped from #1 shareholder to #3 while #1 and #2 bought a total of 5,201,789 shares. I strongly suspect West Face was the one that dropped us from $6.20+ to $5.50. We may also be rather range bound at $5.90-$6.10 if they keep dumping. The good news is someone didn't hesitate to buy 70,000 at $5.925. DaninFW
  • I have been looking for awhile at the
    EVC IR website and they have been showing for a month or two
    that EVC paid over $711.9 million for Headway. I ignored it
    thinking it was a typo. I just looked more closely and the
    amount is in Argentinian ARS's. But, the amount on their
    site includes what they paid $11.497 million in U.S. dollars
    for Headway........but they also agreed to pay contingency
    payments up to $33.058 million if they hit certain financial
    hurdles. You can look at this two ways. One they might be
    paying over $44.5 million for Headway or this acquisition is
    going to drive amazing sales increases. The contingency
    payments could be almost three times the initial payment.
    Headway will do $19 million in 2017 +/- with revenues only
    from 4-04-17. That's about $25-26 million annualized. The
    Headway CEO said in early April that he expected Headway to
    increase sales 40%+ for next 2-3 years. That would be $36+/-
    million in 2018, $51+/- million in 2019 and $71+/- million
    in 2020. I just don't see it. Also, if they paid $11.5
    million for a company doing $25 million a year, then one
    doing $71 million should be worth less than 3X or a total of
    about $32-34 million. The Pulpo deal was only contingency
    payments of about $3-5 million as I remember and I think
    most of it got earned. Hate to ramble but this just blew my
    mind. These guys are not telling shareholders all the facts. DaninFW
  • EVC presented at the 18th Annual B Riley Investment Conference in Santa Monica 5-24 to 5-25-17 and again no press release. these guys are trying to keep stock price down imvho. However, right when presentated we popped from $5.50+/- to current level and still climbing..........must have been some after hour cocktail discussions. Too bad they don't share with their investors. DaninFW
  • EVC was at $5.50 yesterday morning when the annual meeting started and ran to $5.90 this evening bucking the sector trend. We also had help from the NXST acquiring TGNA report that came out late A.M. today. They also issued yesterday based price at the time 12,173 restricted shares the 5 BOD's get for free in one year. If the stock had been $7 it would have only been about 9500 shares. You have to wonder if they tried to keep the price down.........
    However, I suspect something was said at the meeting that sparked some upward movement started to fly to L.A. to ask some questions. I wish I had now. This whole management team is using EVC for their own personal ATM machine. I am out at $7+/-.
  • I just have to shake my head on EVC. If you back out the $264 million or just under $3 cash per share you are buying EVC for $2.50+/- a share. FCF at 50 cents and 2%+ cash annual dividend. The concern is what is management going to do with the money? The CEO was just reported to having been the highest overpaid exec in broadcasting taking in 1.84% of all top line revenues. He also controls over 50% of the voting shares and Univision controls if they can get bought out or not and by whom. A real sticky wicket here. Then, execs have been dealing with Univision for 2+ years on reverse comp. Q1 EVC reported 7% growth and Univision 20% so that tells me Univision is taking more than the previous 60% cut which also was already the highest in the industry. I state all this because of the $3+/- in cash and hopefully more from other channel sharing deals. This company has little or no future IMVHO. They talked months ago about making a "transformational" acquisition outside tv, radio and digital. Nothing to date. The CEO also got about $136 million for selling an L.A. tv station in the auction. It's like pulling teeth to get these guy to do any kind of positive press release. Appears to me they are trying to keep the stock price down for the CEO or Univision to buy or take private. I have been taking diligent notes and will be first in line to file a class action if CEO tries to steal the company.
    The $32.5 million purchase of channel sharing in D.C. with 11 times the viewers could be a game changer. These guys have never made an accretive acquisition to my knowledge. They overpaid for their radio assets by about $200 million and then overpaid for Pulpo which is having sales decreases now. I think the Headway deal will look good for 6-12 months and then go downhill as well. I am out of this puppy at $7+/-. DaninFW
  • After my last post I wanted to share some trading thoughts. I also assume EVC will pay 50 cents to a dollar special dividend after they receive the cash. For me, I hold about a third of my shares in non-IRA accounts. I will only have to pay 15%+/- tax on this distribution. On the day the dividend is paid, the stock price of EVC is adjusted. Hopefully I have a capital gain still. If it drops below my average cost....then I can sell and take a 35%+/- tax credit. Of course, they are talking changes in the tax code so this is a moving target. DaninFW
  • Based on this release today, EVC should get their $264M around 8-25-17:
    "According to the FCC schedule, all winning bidders must cough up the balance of their payments (each had to make a down payment) by 6 p.m. on May 11 (wire transfers, please, no checks or credit cards). If not in by that date, they will be charged a late fee of an additional 5%, so long as they get it in by May 25. If both deadlines are missed, the bidder will be in default.

    It will probably take another three months or so after that, if past auctions are any gauge, before that money changes hands again as the FCC pays broadcasters their winning bid amounts—NBC, for example, is getting $481.6 million for the spectrum of flagship WNBC New York and Telemundo affiliates WWSI Philadelphia and WSNS Chicago, though in each case it will maintain the programming through sharing agreements with duopoly partners."
  • Never thought we would get this low again. There is virtually no selling just no buyers. Weak hands getting out. This evening should get us back in that $6.10-$6.40 trading call tomorrow. Hoping we get some more good news about channel sharing. I could see where EVC could get another $30-50 million for channel sharing. It's also odd to me that Univision has not reported yet. They always report before EVC. This stock is going to trade in a very narrow channel till they get the money in 3-6 months. Almost dead money till then without a catalyst. DaninFW