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Evofem Biosciences, Inc. (EVFM)

NasdaqGS - NasdaqGS Real Time Price. Currency in USD
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1.1000-0.0600 (-5.17%)
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  • B
    Berdan
    you dont need analysts for the share price of 5 dollar to be calculated :) very simple math: at the investor presentation they aim to take 2.5 % market share which amounts to a minimum sales of 1.5 b with profit worst case scenarios 10% equaling to 150 mio. usually ev/ebitda worst case is ten. Hence, 1.5 market cap where right now we are at 180 mio, meaning around 8 dollar. Lets say wirst case scenario 4 usd per share :) by the way morgan stanley analyst has asked physicians how much patient would switch to the non hormon option: answer was by the survey about 25% where the company has just calculate 2.5% market share. )
  • A
    Alex 999
    To be objective, there are several factors that suggest that the stock should experience a short-term rebound in the near future. These factors are:
    1. The stock has been in a downtrend for a long time and has reached historic lows.
    2. In the recent period, there were purchases of shares by insiders (though not very large). This is a good sign.
    3. In the recent period, institutions have bought large blocks of shares, and the number of institutions holding shares was more than 50%. This is a good sign.
    4. In the last period, large trading volumes have been observed, and these volumes on the days of the price increase are always greater than the volumes on the days of the price decrease. This suggests that the urge to buy is greater than the urge to sell.
    5. In recent days, stocks were more likely to trade higher outside the main trading session and fall during the main trading session. Institutions often trade outside of the main trading session. This indicates the increased interest of institutions in shares.
    6. The stock has been in a falling wedge for the last three months, then on the news of the last 100 million dilution, the price fell below the wedge, fell into the accumulation zone, and then broke the upper border of the wedge and went up on higher volumes. This speaks to the strength of the buyers.
    What are the pros and a tailwind?
    1. The likelihood that some celebrity will start advertising Phexxi. This will raise Phexxi's awareness.
    2. After some time, EVO 100 may be approved. Then they will have two products, which will expand the target audience.
    3. Health insurance coverage for Phexxi purchases may be negotiated, making Phexxi virtually “free” for many consumers to purchase.
    4. The price of Phexxi is high compared to the cost, which in the long term will lead to high margins, and this in turn will increase the profitability of sales.
    What are the cons and headwind?
    1. The company has little money, and the marketing and research costs are very high. Therefore, there is a possibility of new public offerings of shares this year.
    2. Phexxi sales are growing very slowly. Extrapolating, it can be assumed that Phexxi will have sales of $ 3,765,000 in the second quarter of 2021, up from $ 2,855,000 in the first quarter of 2021. That is, only 32% more. This is very small considering the low base of the last quarter and the huge amounts of money spent on marketing. A company needs to multiply its sales per quarter in order to generate significant profits and for the share price to rise well. But now, unfortunately, the sales department is not working well, and this situation remains the same.
    I am neutral for now and am monitoring the situation.
    What do you think about the prospects for EVFM?
  • A
    Alex
    They miss EPS and revenue estimates every quarter…. How is that a buy?
  • B
    Barry
    $EVFM
    From this article : https://seekingalpha.com/article/4412637-evofem-biosciences-launches-phexxi-will-peak-sales-surprise

    P/S Comparison

    PARAGARD was sold to CooperSurgical from Teva for $1.1 billion, with only $168 million in TTM sales in the United States. Using a US peak sales number of $1 billion for Phexxi, Evofem would eventually be worth $6.55 billion using the same P/S ratio. With 130 million shares outstanding (anticipating further dilution), assuming sales ramp to $1 billion in 8 years, and therefore using a ~50% cut for discounting to the present, EVFM shares might be considered worth about $23 now, or $50 when it hits the $1 billion mark (though it won't be patented forever).

    Peak Sales Multiple

    Similarly, using a 3x peak sales multiple and discounted to the present, the valuation is approximately $1.5 billion, or $11.5 per share, using 130 million shares outstanding.
    So, it appears the shares could be undervalued, but only if sales take off accordingly.
    Evofem recently launched the first new non-hormonal birth control option in decades. Centered on the woman's quality of life, it may provide a tailwind for Phexxi sales.
    Evofem recently launched the first new non-hormonal birth control option in decades. Centered on the woman's quality of life, it may provide a tailwind for Phexxi sales.
    seekingalpha.com
    Bullish
  • B
    Ben
    Morgan Stanley bought 7.6 million shares. If that’s not a positive indicator I don’t know what is
    Bullish
  • S
    Stan
    At the end of Q1/20, there were ~48 million shares outstanding; when this offering is completed, there should be ~132 million shares at the end of Q2/21. A near tripling in just over a year. Let's see how long the $50m will last, think one to two additional quarters at most?

    The first headline in the Q1 report: revenues are up 550% compared to Q4/20. That looks like a lot at first glance, but revenues in Q4/20 were also only $0.2 million.... In the same period, the loss increased from $41m to $46m, so the "revenue increase" of $0.9m did not help to reduce the loss, on the contrary. After $41m loss in Q4/20, it is now $45m in Q1/21. When I then see the quarterly loss and compare it to what EVFM has in cash, it is easy to calculate that this will not last long and what the next steps could be (RS+Offering).

    I bough in today a small position cause I believe that they could increase revenue in Q2
  • J
    John
    Board Member, Tony O'brien, bought shares in the afternoon session 06/14/2021. Let's GO!!
    - https://evofem.investorroom.com/board-of-directors?item=11

    Tony has made over 1 trade of the Evofem Biosciences Inc stock since 2021, according to the Form 4 filled with the SEC. Most recently Tony bought 8,140 units of EVFM stock worth $10,663 on 14 June 2021.
    The largest trade Tony's ever made was buying 8,140 units of Evofem Biosciences Inc stock on 14 June 2021 worth over $10,663. On average, Tony trades about 1,357 units every 0 days since 2018.

    Insiders are buying, Morgan Stanley is buying . . . this bull run for $EVFM is far from over!
    Bullish
  • J
    Julian
    I see new folks here just because they invested couple of dollars. Everyone wants stocks to double or triple in a day. This one requires patience. They will be a dominant force in women’s health slowly but steadily
  • S
    Stan
    Bough in today a small position of 500 shares :)
  • A
    Alex
    Down 80% in the last 12 months, how is the CEO still getting paid a salary? Seriously she should get sacked. This stock is a disaster.
  • J
    John
    Lets gooooo! Insiders picking up shares / steady upticks in volume . . . $EVFM is looking sweet for the next few months
    Bullish
  • a
    alan
    Here we go. Gap up, (no resistance), to $1.22, and minor resistance up to $1.71. The RSI14 has gone up from 19, (oversold) at the end of May to 72 as of yesterday which shows investors are piling in. Looking good for a nice rise near term.
  • A
    Alex
    Imagine getting paid $4 mil salary when the share price is so sheet…. The CEO needs to resign ASAP
    Bearish
  • A
    Alex
    What power do shareholders have? The CEO needs to go. Shocking share price. And she still takes 4 mil per year, OUR money!!
    Bearish
  • j
    james n
    Came on board last week after watching the action on level 2. Goodl luck to past and new shareholders. I picked up January 2022 $1.50 calls and some stock.
  • J
    Julian
    FDA approval was only received in May 2021 I don’t understand the impatience of investors here. It is starting to get prescribed by doctors. Earnings and revenue will follow after. I fully trust if you are patient for a year ur money will be worth atleast 10 times what it is today.
  • P
    Paul
    With a product like no other, needed on a continual basis,, and global market for it, share price could easily exceed $15/share. Be patient.
    Bullish
  • K
    Keilan
    Is there options trading on this yet?
    Bullish
  • c
    chuck
    Share price only down 5% today. Time to give management higher pay for showing up at the office.