Okay sports fans, From a very experienced biotech investor of multiple decades and dozens of biotech investments, it’s show me the money. More specifically it’s show me the revenue. You can see here from this chart the high correlation between market cap and revenue. In billions MCap Revenue AMGN 134 22.6 CELG 97 13.2 BIIB 60 11.4 REGN 41 5.5 VRTX 34 2.2 ALXN 28 3.4 INCY 28 1.4 BMRN 17 1.3 SGEN 9 0.5 IONS 7 0.37 EXEL 7 0.36 KITE 5 0.2
So here is the point. If you expect cabo to be approved in first line RCC, with Sutent revenues now near a billion and if any of the combination studies too numerous to mention come to fruition, I don’t think an expectation of EXEL total revenues including cobi of 1.5billion to be outlandish. Therefore from the chart, I also think a market cap of 20 billion is very plausible. A 20 billion market cap puts EXEL around 70. (go Hairy! Kaboom!) So you can root for a short term bump for a buyout if you want. A very generous 35-40 percent market premium for a buyout only puts you at 33 to 34 dollars. Personally I’d rather wait a little longer for 70 and have a chance for 100 plus. I am long EXEL. I composed this myself and did it pretty fast so there could be errors in market cap and revenue estimates which are approximate. However, I think it’s accurate enough to draw the logical conclusions. I am not receiving any compensation for this and have no relationship with the company other than as a stockholder.
Russell 2000 rebalancing, happens once a year at end of session.
It could be someone jockeying for position to protect a buyout or it could be an activist shareholder taking a large position (anything greater than 5% requires filing so we should see soon). Could be Baker Bros or someone similar if this scenario is to hold true. Should be an interesting Monday morning. To me this is probably all good for anyone long and could be very disastrous for those shorting!
A classic "coiled spring" scenario. I have a feeling while discussions are underway, a lot is still contingent upon sNDA filing for first line RCC and definitive (positive) interim results in HCC. EXEL management has to wait rather than hastily take the offer. Cabo as it is well positioned to grow very well and company has plenty of cash and future positive cash flow to support operations, so they should be shrewd and wait a few more months. The buy-out thought seems more and more probable in the $50+ range. But if EXEL can keep itself independent we may well be looking at $100 in 2-3 years. That's a fantastic return for all of us long time holders....for many a real possibility of retirement!!
Very little retail investor action at these levels. Big boy money is pouring in and will take this to the moon. We are still somewhat under valued considering a possible First line treatment for Kidney Cancer.
From my Level II, I can see a BIG GUY has manipulated the price in the last 3, 4 minutes SOLD 1,433,595 shares to brought the price down from $24.52 to $23.78. This BIG GUY is criminal trader.
I said chill out last week when it was $19 and say the same now. It may be bumpy, but the ride should get us in 2-5 years north of $40!! Alone or BO!! Just add to your positions when you can. 🍾🍾
First resistance is 24.63 we need to take that out if we are to move higher today, 2nd resistance level is 25.20.
Folks the fun is just starting. The action clearly indicates some talks are going on behind the scenes. This type of movement in share price in three days is more that just the data release news from Monday. We are clearly in the line of sight for some big pharma for a takeout. Dawn, you were 100% correct we will be bought give the action (this is just a pre-leakage). I suspect we will see a $3-$4 movement when the actual leak takes place otherwise we will just wake up one morning and read that EXEL has agreed to "XYZ" offer of $38-$40
16+ mil shrs traded... who behind this trades, who is buying??? I am waiting for Monday to know whats happening or we may get news this wk end.
I know next wk is QTR end and alot of institutions and brokers need to show their performance buying, selling and adjusting their portfolios but I am hoping for good news. gl.
Let's hope today will see a new 12 month high!!
Most of you guys are riding OMER too, right? Love EXEL and OMER.
Big boys really know how to make money on promising/growing companies. They take it down 25% in 5 weeks (after great earnings) and then wait for some news and bring it back up 16% in two days, making a killing on both sides. Us longs awaiting the "bigger" news can only watch from the sidelines and chuckle (and a few of us with dry powder added while it was down)!
Looks like the biotech sector continues its momentum today......EXEL is still very cheap here at $24 as more positive news is not too far away (including another strong qtl'y numbers on Aug 3rd)!
Hairy G. Balls
Shorties -- give it up! efficacy will kill you!
HERE IS THE NEXT 10 BAGGER LIKE EXEL ..THANK ME LATER IGXT (MC $46 M) NDA filing for MEGA thin-flim Cialis (better than Viagra) this month =10++ BAGGER Potential ! PLEASE read this guys and then join us to make big money .A LIFETIME OPPORTUNITY HERE GUYS !!!
2 US-NDA submission within 2 months ,lot of Cash and heavily underpriced at a valuation of just $46 million .1 Big drug partnered with Endo Pharma already under review by FDA market launch expected in 1H 2018 .Load up guys before she the MEGA news hit the wire and thank me later .GL
MarketCap $46 Million Cash ~$12 Million (including convertible debt) =cash untill 2021+ Price: 0.70
NDA submission for tadalafil (erectile dysfunction) thin-film version of Blockbuster drug Cialis in June or July NDA resubmission for Rizaport (migraine) in early Q3 Partnership for Tadalafil in 2H 2017
IntelGenx previously confirmed the bioequivalence of Tadalafil to Eli Lilly’s Cialis, which had sales of $1.5-billion in 2016 but faces generic competition in 2020. IntelGenx has an exclusive license for oral films from Lilly for its dosing patent, which would allow Tadalafil to enter the ED market in the U.S. free from patent litigation from Lilly. Dr. Matzen explains that Tadalafil, which offers a discrete dosing alternative, could enter the market in 2018, with up to three years of market exclusivity before Cialis is hit with generic competition.
Tadalafil is an erectile dysfunction (ED) treatment that boasts bioequivalence with Cialis, the current leading brand, and with a successful biostudy in-hand a 505(b)(2) NDA is set to be filed any day now, meaning that a full launch should be expected in mid-2018. Cialis is already winning-out over Viagra in terms of numbers of prescriptions, which is largely down to price and efficacy, but when Tadalafil comes to market with the same product in a more convenient and discreet delivery mechanism, IntelGenX should see a massive number of customers take-up its services.
IntelGenx has multi-faceted BD approach for its oral films
With a burgeoning pipeline of pharmaceutical oral films, IntelGenx’s (OTCQX:IGXT; TSXV:IGX) business development strategy is focused on partnering its product pipeline along with actively meeting with potential partners to explore manufacturing
Hairy G. Balls
First time that EXEL advanced on a 12%+ ... hold for low $30's then a buyout will come! kaboom! no less than $70's by the Fall
New 52 week high in the cross hairs and hopefully hits today. The current qtr will probably be stronger than last qtr (which was their first profitable qtr operationally), so would think we're positioned to be near 27-28 range after earnings on Aug 3rd!