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First Acceptance Corporation (FAC)

NYSE - NYSE Delayed Price. Currency in USD
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1.160.00 (0.00%)
As of 3:59PM EDT. Market open.
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  • Another day of (relatively) impressive volume and yet FAC's closing price tied its lowest close since Q1 Earnings Release. With 8 days left in Q2 is this an indicator that investors are restless from stale, meaningless promises rehashed from one quarter to the next without any real news of positive traction? I truly sympathize with Russell, he's a smart guy grounded with a solid sense of integrity that must depend on others that have long been motivated by (and thrived under) destructive incentive practices. Are they resorting to learned/well established traits in "aiding" Russell? When the CEO announces a pivot to an emphasis on social media and we see a company of 1,400 FT employees then the company's facebook likes equate to 7.4% of FT employees. Recent reporting does not state PIF other than to say it was -21% vs Q1 2016, but if we assume PIF to be 150,000 then facebook likes would be at .07% of PIF...and judging by the remarks left by policyholders on the page that number would be surprisingly high.
  • 9 of the last 12 days have seen trading volume under 20K (less than 40% of Avg Vol), share price has remained virtually unchanged since the Earnings Release over a month ago. No update from Russell or Brunhamer on the success of the recently announced motorcycle insurance sales initiative in the heart of motorcycle insurance selling season (Mar-May). Does anyone see a reason to invest in FAC?
  • Impressive volume today to finish .04 down. FAC is now trading at .01 higher than a surprisingly good Earnings Release (mysteriously .13 down from the day before Earnings Release). Re: Social media presence let's add some "insights". Brunhamer came to FAC as SVP of Marketing and eCommerce before being promoted to head other divisions. If this poor social media presence pre-dated her, why didn't she fix it? If it occurred under her watch, why was she promoted? If she knew what the company's facebook page looked like why did she allow Russell to highlight social media efforts? If she didn't know what the company's facebook page looked like, then what has she been doing?
  • Very interesting "Details" from "Devil" on my previous strand "9 of the last 12 days..." I echo his concerns re: not only the company's social media "efforts" if you can call it that...but also my sincere desire that the Motorcycle, Commercial Auto, etc. initiative is real and actually has teeth.
  • or there is a reverse split on the way...
  • There is suspicious (or rather lack thereof) in this stock's trading. Based on the stock's current and trending value prior to vs. following the Q1 Earnings Release potential investors would be led to believe that the stock is currently undervalued. In this scenario one would expect insiders and/or the company itself to buy shares from the market however we are not seeing that. Based on these conditions is it reasonable for investors to conclude that insiders either A) Do not believe the shares to be a value buy or B) Believe that their current portfolios are currently leveraged to the hilt with this stock? Similarly from the company's perspective does Gay believe that a buyback is too risky (the stock is essentially at its true value with little expected positive movement on the horizon)? Perhaps Gay simply believes that from an investor perspective there are too many other investment options in the market with a much more favorable expected return to waste the company's investment capital on FAC. In either case this should serve as a warning to potential investors that if insiders as a whole, and Gay as the company's CFO don't see a favorable expected return in purchasing FAC shares then why should the outsider who is looking in? Of course one could also rationalize that Gay simply doesn't know a good buy in FAC when he sees it...which is also a noteworthy signal to investors.
  • FAC is up 7.38% to 1.25
  • The company's statements regarding online sales as a growing component of the distribution mix and that being the basis for a greater focus on social media and online advertising seems to be either misleading or mis-analyzed. Previously the question was raised as to whether online is in true growth, or just a different degree of decline when factoring in FAC's tremendous office closures during 2016 however it appears that someone in Operations, Marketing, or Reporting has fed Russell a misleading tidbit of data. Consider the following statements in the 2014, 2015, and 2016 Annual Reports (all statements begin with "Approximately X% of PIF were sold through a non-retail environment.")
    2014: Approximately 7%
    2015: Approximately 10%
    2016: Approximately 8%
    Based on this information, Retail % of distribution actually grew in distribution mix despite being -85 offices on a year over year basis making "the growth" of online sales essentially a cannibalization of other non-retail segments (Independent Agent, Call Center, etc) or possibly just signaling a dramatic decline/cancellation in other channel production. As I've stated previously, diversification of the advertising mix to grow social media and online advertising presence is not necessarily a bad thing given its ability to drive sales to all distribution channels (not just online). I am however concerned about the direction/emphasis of these efforts if those involved are feeding Russell half-truths to accelerate their own agendas as was the Borbely way...and these are Borbely's lieutenants after all.
    On a second matter, as Details noted previously sales of the expanded commissionable third party products (Commercial Auto, Motorcycle, Homeowners) has been lackluster at best in sales emphasis since they've been offered going back some years. With March-May being the prime months to sell Motorcycle Coverage the success of this product should be telling of how serious the Sales Team is in driving profitable growth with these ancillary products. Of course the climate of AZ, CA, FL, TX, NV as well as other states to a lesser degree lends this to be a potential game changer in commissionable revenue growth if in fact Sales attacks these products with the veracity that Russell implies. Will the company create a Dealership Program as it does for its auto product? Does FAC have a proven leader of ancillary sales in place to make this initiative work? Or is this all merely smoke and mirrors? The stock remains at the low end of its true value due to a lack of shareholder confidence in Russell's primary lieutenants. Reporting on significant milestones, and accomplishments throughout the quarter and providing more clarity in Quarterly Reporting will go a long way in accelerating FAC's share price.
  • It appears as though FAC has reached the true range of the stock's market worth. Right now I would say the shares are slightly undervalued with a true worth in the $1.20-$1.25 range. As I've stated previously however FAC would be well served to provide progress updates throughout the quarter to bolster investor confidence. This is an approach many industry leaders take and it serves them well.
  • Profit Takers? Pump & Dump? Leading up to the Earnings Release there was questionable activity (and volume) driving up share price without any public information which would logically have driven up share price. Now that the good news has come out following the Earnings Release instead of seeing the share price driven higher on optimistic news we are seeing share price drop to levels we should have seen prior to the Earnings Release. Call me a skeptic but does this wreak of insider activity?
  • Bravo Russell! Congratulations to all involved including Brunhamer & Albertini who I've been critical of. While one marginally profitable quarter doesn't bring FAC out of the pit it has been in for too long it is a very positive step in the right direction. As I've stated earlier less revenue isn't necessarily bad for business. Reading through the report there are several positive takeaways I'd like to point out (other than the results). 1) Russell notes the strategic intent of dumping bad business (Police In Force) by tightening underwriting, closing/consolidating offices, and increasing rates...and the outcome of the strategy 2) the subtly stated yet stated nonetheless cause/effect of tightening underwriting and decreasing claims frequency (The Uber Effect is REAL...press the Business Use) 3) A departure from the defeatist tone of essentially stating "We stink because gas is cheap and the economy is good." 4) Giving investors reason to believe there are good things to come in the rollout of new products in former Titan offices as well as legacy Acceptance offices. There were a few interesting statements that seemed somewhat conflicting (though perhaps not) that I would like added clarity on 1) Russell states that online sales are becoming a larger part of the company's distribution channel which suggests some degree of growth...but given the company's Retail Closures (and departure from the entire state of MO) are online sales actually growing, or merely declining at a slower rate than the mass retail closures? For example, VA which is an Internet/Call Center only state declined by nearly 50% in Gross Premium over Q1 '16. Granted, the premium from this state is a nominal drop in the bucket however the fact that it is not supported by Retail underscores that the "growth" of the Internet contribution may be misleading given the sharp decline of Retail locations (and Retail policies). For this reason I encourage more open reporting on production by distribution channel (an illustration that was once included prior to BoBo's tenure). 2) As recently as last quarter Russell stated the customer preference for Retail buying but that Online Sales Sales and Call Center Sales were deemed a necessary supplement to properly serving customer needs. However this quarter Russell seems very bullish on social media and online marketing. While I fully support this move because I believe that digital and social media marketing can support multiple distribution platforms (Retail, CC, Web Sales) I am concerned that the new strategy may be to dump the budget into pushing sales to the web (based on the "growth of the Internet channel" statement). Regardless of the answers all involved are to be commended for 1 quarter of solid improvement...keep it up! Hopefully Russell & Bodayle will find a few positive nuggets to feed us throughout the quarter.
  • Less than 1 week from Q1 Earnings Release. While I'm not expecting good news on the earnings front I am anxiously anticipating what "pearls of wisdom" Russell (The Mussell) will have for investors. 6 months in and it's time to hang up the tired excuse of blaming an improving economy and cheap gas on poor performance. Instead share with investors how the company is cutting costs and what exactly is being done to improve results. Share with investors what (if any) major operations, claims, product, and marketing successes were achieved during the quarter. In short...give investors a credible reason to believe that the lieutenants that Russell inherited from BoBo are capable of turning this company around. After all...if they aren't then why do they still have a job at FAC?
  • Interesting volume trends recently. Today's significantly higher than normal volume lifted share price by 1 cent after 3 days of outrageously low volume suspiciously boosted share price. At 1.17 I'm not sure there's much room for the dumping that is bound to take place after Q1 Earnings Release. How much optimistic news can we really expect from Russell's coming release? Hopefully there will be more "details" on the "new Claims office" in Nashville. A relocation/consolidation of Chicago Claims to Nashville hopefully (a wise cost saving measure). In any event, I see no reason to bid over current market rate prior to the Earnings Release given the likelihood of another quarter in the Deep Red. If anyone wants this stock I'm sure there are plenty of shares to be had at 1.12 or 1.13...and those unwilling to sell at that price today may be kicking themselves after the release comes out.
  • Did anyone else see $FAC report from http://thesubwaytrader.com/?s=FAC ? It had some interesting information. Blaauw's law: established technology tends to persist in spite of new technology. Investing trading stocks.

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  • We are only a few weeks away from Q1 Earnings release. Does anyone care to speculate on the results? I think it goes without saying that the company is in for another quarter in the red the bigger question is How much if any improvement can we expect from Q4 and Q3. We can expect a decline in revenue which isn't necessarily a bad thing if the product isn't properly priced and the correct mechanisms aren't in place to defend the revenue (Claims Handling). Here are my scenarios for Q1: 1) Losses from insurance operations of $2 M or less...this will be a good sign showing hopeful prospects for 2017 2) Losses from insurance operations of $2.5 M - $2.7 M and Russell should act quickly to replace/re-assign some portion of his Senior Management Team. The best hopes for the year are probably shot, but acting quickly can ensure that the company finishes on a strong note. 3) Losses from insurance operations of $3 M or more give a strong signal to shareholders that this will be a VERY RED YEAR. Act swiftly to clean house of Russell's current senior advisors (with the possible exception of Albertini given his short tenure). Underwriting, Product, and Sales probably have strong candidates within. Finance (unless Bodayle is promoted) is probably too shallow for a suitable leader and "Administration" is too fat already with unproven members such as the "Training" Dept. There may be a diamond in the rough somewhere but this is another area that the company should consider outsider suitors for. Let's face it Q1 is a make or break quarter in this industry everyone on the board and in the Senior Management Team are aware of that fact. Failure to adequately drive improvement here is a sign to investors that continuing to invest in th company in the short term is throwing good money after bad.
  • Impressive insights Industry! 3 months ago you were championing the Cost Benefits of consolidating Chicago Claims into Nashville and in the last few days I've been reading about Acceptance "new Regional Claims office in Nashville". While I don't have a lot of details on this yet it would be an oasis of positive news for investors if in fact the company is consolidating its Chicago Claims office into Nashville in a cost saving measure. Of course another great cost saving measure would be to eliminate Kitchen's "Training Team". Can anyone name a successful insurance company where a Sales/HR guy is training Claims, Product, Underwriting, etc? Perhaps this is why Brunhamer & Gay have been so lackluster...becuase Kitchen didn't properly train them. Seriously though...if Chicago Claims is being moved to Nashville this is great news that thhe company should capitalize on to bolster investor confidence that the company is being proactive in improving performance. Russell & Bodayle can't do it all. If I were Gay, Brunhamer, Albertini & Kitchen I would be beating down Bodayle's door with any positive news indicating positive action. Bodayle & Russell can sift through the trash and decide what's fit to release but waiting for quarterly updates that only share another quarter's poor performance and clinging desperation to flawed excuses from Russell's unfit lieutenants will not improve shareholder confidence or share price.
  • Why have we lost .60c in 60 days?
  • Did anyone else see $FAC report from http://yugestocks.com/?s=FAC ? It had some interesting information. Sevareid's law: the chief cause of problems is solutons. Investing day trading.

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  • For over a year we have heard first BoBo, then Gay, and now Russell make unsubstantiated claims that the company's declining performance is due to an improving economy where gas is less expensive and non-standard insureds are spending more money on leisurely driving. While I have immense respect for Russell and appreciate the fact that he recently moderated his statements to note that "the company believes" (a downgrade from previous assertions) there are many fundamental flaws here. Since these statements have been buttressed on arguments that this is occurring throughout the industry this argument seems to lend itself to an argument that the auto insurance industry (or at least non-standard auto) can only flourish in a stagnant or failing economy. If this is the case aren't Russell's senior advisors in essence telling him to tell investors to dump FAC until the economy sours? Not only that but it would also seem that the Titan (failed non-standard) Think Tank headed by Gay and the rest of the Titan failures that he's recruited are also suggesting that investors should dump all undiversified auto insurance (or perhaps just non-standard auto) stocks. Of course as I stated previously...I believe the long held excuse for the company's poor performance is flawed. I would enjoy reading other possible explanations and hopefully Russell will see them as well since his current lieutenants have been derelict in their duties for too long.
  • except that it does not blame its mistakes on another computer. http://dataunion.tistory.com/7328

    MAY-2016 First Acceptance Corporation NYSE : FAC Correlation Histogram
    X axis : Stocks Price Correlation Coefficient Y axis : Quantity of stocks May-2016 1,000 Day Parameter 4,338 NYSE Stocks Price Analysis This stock mode of correlation coefficient is 0.8 In other words, the correlation coefficient of the other stocks