FCEL - FuelCell Energy, Inc.
2.2300 -0.02 (-0.89%)
After hours: 7:34PM EDT
Chart Events
Commodity Channel Index
Performance Outlook
- Short Term2W - 6W
- Mid Term6W - 9M
- Long Term9M+
| Previous Close | 2.1300 |
| Open | 2.1026 |
| Bid | 2.2400 x 4000 |
| Ask | 2.2600 x 27000 |
| Day's Range | 2.1000 - 2.2799 |
| 52 Week Range | 0.1300 - 3.0000 |
| Volume | 7,746,910 |
| Avg. Volume | 10,082,414 |
| Market Cap | 474.68M |
| Beta (5Y Monthly) | 2.09 |
| PE Ratio (TTM) | N/A |
| EPS (TTM) | -1.0460 |
| Earnings Date | Jun 09, 2020 |
| Forward Dividend & Yield | N/A (N/A) |
| Ex-Dividend Date | N/A |
| 1y Target Est | 1.75 |
Fair Value
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Plug Power Needs Its Fuel Cell Logistics Plan to Pan Out
Shares in Plug Power (NASDAQ:PLUG) are up 27% on the year but you can wait on the big gains.Source: Halfpoint / ShutterStock.com Plug Power makes fuel cells, which combine hydrogen with oxygen from the air to produce energy. Water is the byproduct. Unlike FuelCell Energy (NASDAQ:FCEL), which sells its engines to utilities for back-up power, Plug Power focuses on warehousing. Forklifts with fuel cells can go all day without being refueled.Plug Power is now trying to expand this niche by getting into trucks, with advanced diagnostics that let owners track them.InvestorPlace - Stock Market News, Stock Advice & Trading TipsThe focus is on the "middle mile," deliveries made between warehouses, with hydrogen stored at the warehouses for easy refueling. Too Early or Too LateIt's all part of a five-year plan, which the company insisted in its March 5 earnings release is on track. But a loss of 6 cents per share, albeit on revenue of over $91 million, sent shares down anyway.Before earnings, InvestorPlace analyst Louis Navellier was calling the stock "unstoppable." Over the long run that might be the case. * Buy the Dip in These 7 Online Advertising Stocks Now But with fossil fuel energy costs falling, and the prospect of a global recession, the near term looks dicey. That's why InvestorPlace's Larry Ramer wrote on March 2 that investors should wait until after coronavirus fears subside to buy the stock. He wrote after taking profits on two months that saw the price move from $3.23 per share to over $5.My own view is that these are early days for Plug Power. Plug Power has been touting the idea of using electrolysis, powered by solar or wind energy, to produce hydrogen. But for now, the primary feedstock remains natural gas. While natural gas is cheap and plentiful, burning it is a cheaper way to use it. Fuel cells aren't quite as green as they seem. An Established NicheThe best news for Plug Power is that it has established a niche for itself in warehousing. Cleaner operations, lower maintenance costs and shorter fueling times all working to its benefit.The problem for small investors is that its customers could be its undoing. Under a 2017 sales agreement, Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) won the right to buy up to 23% of Plug Power if its total orders came to $600 million. Such a move would water down the holdings of existing shareholders.Walmart (NYSE:WMT) is another big customer for hydrogen-powered forklifts. It was estimated in 2018 there were already over 20,000 hydrogen-powered forklifts in operation.Going from warehouses to the streets may be tougher. Here, fuel cells must compete directly with natural gas. United Parcel Service (NYSE:UPS) is a big user of natural gas in its delivery vehicles, and those moving between warehouses would be of the same class. Hydrogen is also harder to store than natural gas.While natural gas is a fossil fuel it's often sold as "clean" energy, because it offers lower emissions than oil. The industry works around critics by taking some of its gas from landfills, calling this "renewable." Fuel Cell Energy also uses landfill gas to power its fuel cells. The Bottom Line on PLUG StockPlug Power is doing much better than other energy or transportation stocks in 2020. The shares fell 9% on March 9 but recovered nearly all that loss overnight, opening at $4.15. Plug Power's market capitalization is about $1.2 billion, on trailing year sales of about $200 million.It means that, for now, the stock is fully valued. This is a speculative stock for younger investors. It could be a 10-bagger, increasing in value by 10 times, assuming the company's five-year plan works. For now that's still just an assumption.Dana Blankenhorn has been a financial and technology journalist since 1978. His latest book is Technology's Big Bang: Yesterday, Today and Tomorrow with Moore's Law, essays on technology available at the Amazon Kindle store. Follow him on Twitter at @danablankenhorn. As of this writing he owned shares in AMZN. More From InvestorPlace * 2 Toxic Pot Stocks You Should Avoid * 7 Healthcare Stocks Worth Your Time Now * Buy the Dip in These 7 Online Advertising Stocks Now * 7 Services Stocks to Buy on Coronavirus Weakness The post Plug Power Needs Its Fuel Cell Logistics Plan to Pan Out appeared first on InvestorPlace.
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Stay On The Sidelines With FuelCell Energy Stock
Holding steady under $2/share, you might think now the time to buy into FuelCell Energy (NASDAQ:FCEL).Source: Kaca Skokanova/Shutterstock But not so fast! "Green Economy" stocks may be holding their value even in today's volatile market. But in the case of FuelCell Energy, there are too many red flags to consider it an opportunity.Like Plug Power (NASDAQ:PLUG), FuelCell is making progress signing up big companies for its renewable energy technology. As you may know, I've long been skeptical of Plug Power's long term prospects.InvestorPlace - Stock Market News, Stock Advice & Trading TipsIn the case of FCEL stock, I am even more hesitant. FuelCell has even more limited financing options. Shares also trade at a higher enterprise value/sales (EV/Sales) ratio than Plug Power. * 8 Stocks to Buy in March for a Coronavirus Rebound In short, FCEL stock is not the strongest "green wave" stock for your portfolio. Yet, the stock's volatility may make it tough to get on the other side of this name. With this in mind, let's dive in, and see what's the verdict with FuelCell Energy stock. What Else is in the Pipeline For FCEL Stock?A big catalyst for FCEL stock as of late was the company's partnership deal with Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM). This deal not only demonstrates potential demand for FuelCell's carbon capture technology. It could also help the floundering company get its financial house in order. As InvestorPlace's Chris Lau discussed February 26, this deal helps reduce operational risks. With this partnership, Exxon Mobil is essentially subsidizing FuelCell's research and development costs.But, what else is at play with FCEL stock? As InvestorPlace's Vince Martin discussed February 24, FuelCell's new strategy is to focus on long-term PPA (or Power Purchase Agreement) deals, as opposed to one-time product sales. This may explain why sales took a hit in the last quarter of 2019. Yet, outside of the Exxon Mobil deal, FuelCell lacks other game-changing catalysts.All bets are off whether FuelCell can secure more Exxon Mobil-sized deals. Yet, that has not stopped investors from continuing to give FCEL stock a rich valuation. Add in potential headwinds related to financing, and there's more to be cautious about with FuelCell Energy shares. Financing Challenges Could Limit FuelCell's GrowthIn my prior analysis of FCEL stock, I keyed in on the company's financing issues. Much of the attention may be paid to the company's $200 million financing deal with Orion Energy Partners. But, the company could be hitting a wall raising more capital.FuelCell was able to secure the deal by issuing warrants. The deal wasn't terribly dilutive. But unlike other speculative growth names, FuelCell can only dilute so far. Why? The company's self-imposed cap of 225 million outstanding shares. With the Orion deal, FCEL stock now has about 211 million shares outstanding.With the company unprofitable, FuelCell will need more financing if it manages to secure needle-moving sales. To secure this funding, odds are the company will need to issue warrants to entice potential debt investors. As the company currently can only issue an extra 14 million shares, this will be a challenge.This explains why FuelCell's next annual meeting includes a vote on expanding the share count. If approved, the company could increase the number of outstanding FCEL stock to 337.5 million shares.Last year, shareholders voted against this amendment. But, this year, FuelCell's management could make a stronger case. Issuing more FCEL stock would impact the share price short-term. But, the company cannot pursue growth without more capital. Valuation Another Key Concern with FCEL StockWith potential growth limited by the outstanding shares cap, one would think FCEL stock would sell at a lower valuation than Plug Power. Yet, this is not the case. FCEL shares trade at an EV/Sales ratio of 9.6. Plug Power trades at an EV/Sales ratio of 8.8. And this is with Plug Power, overvalued at it may be, having stronger prospects than FuelCell.Granted, this valuation discrepancy may not matter in the grand scheme of things. If FuelCell can secure another headline-making deal, shares could skyrocket. It's tough to use traditional valuation metrics for stocks like Fuel Cell or Plug Power. Less than a year ago, Plug Power didn't look like a great opportunity valuation-wise. Yet, shares have more than doubled since then. FuelCell Shares Could Surprise, But Look Elsewhere For OpportunityGiven the number of factors working against FCEL stock, it's tough to justify at buy at today's price levels. Yet, it may be precarious to short FuelCell around $2/share. With speculative interest in green stocks like FuelCell, shares could skyrocket on the whiff of a game-changing deal.It short, FCEL stock is too overvalued to buy, but too uncertain to short. Bottom line, the best move is to seek opportunities elsewhere. Renewable energy stocks as a whole are overvalued. But FuelCell shares offer an even less promising proposition.Thomas Niel, contributor to InvestorPlace, has been writing single-stock analysis for web-based publications since 2016. As of this writing, Thomas Niel did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities. More From InvestorPlace * 2 Toxic Pot Stocks You Should Avoid * 8 Stocks to Buy in March for a Coronavirus Rebound * 5 Big Reasons Stocks Will Rebound From the Coronavirus Selloff * 4 Large-Cap Stocks Still in Trouble The post Stay On The Sidelines With FuelCell Energy Stock appeared first on InvestorPlace.
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