50.95 0.00 (0.00%)
After hours: 4:35PM EDT
|Bid||50.95 x 900|
|Ask||60.00 x 900|
|Day's Range||50.05 - 51.39|
|52 Week Range||50.05 - 127.32|
|Beta (3Y Monthly)||1.66|
|PE Ratio (TTM)||15.87|
|Earnings Date||Mar 6, 2019 - Mar 11, 2019|
|Forward Dividend & Yield||N/A (N/A)|
|1y Target Est||81.67|
National Beverage Corp NASDAQ/NGS:FIZZView full report here! Summary * Bearish sentiment is low Bearish sentimentShort interest | PositiveShort interest is low for FIZZ with fewer than 5% of shares on loan. The last change in the short interest score occurred more than 1 month ago and implies that there has been little change in sentiment among investors who seek to profit from falling equity prices. Money flowETF/Index ownership | NeutralETF activity is neutral. ETFs that hold FIZZ had net inflows of $918 million over the last one-month. While these are not among the highest inflows of the last year, the rate of inflow is increasing. Economic sentimentPMI by IHS Markit | NeutralAccording to the latest IHS Markit Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data, output in the Consumer Goods sector is rising. The rate of growth is weak relative to the trend shown over the past year, however. Credit worthinessCredit default swapCDS data is not available for this security.Please send all inquiries related to the report to firstname.lastname@example.org.Charts and report PDFs will only be available for 30 days after publishing.This document has been produced for information purposes only and is not to be relied upon or as construed as investment advice. To the fullest extent permitted by law, IHS Markit disclaims any responsibility or liability, whether in contract, tort (including, without limitation, negligence), equity or otherwise, for any loss or damage arising from any reliance on or the use of this material in any way. Please view the full legal disclaimer and methodology information on pages 2-3 of the full report.
National Beverage Corp. shares fell 5.4% in Tuesday trading after a UBS report shows that sales of the LaCroix brand of sparkling water are slipping. For the four weeks ending Jan. 26, 2019, sales in the sparkling water category grew 16.1%, but LaCroix sales were down 1.2%, UBS wrote in its latest U.S. non-alcoholic beverage report. For the 12 weeks ending January 26, the brand was down 1.9% while the category gained 16%. "We see ample room for Coca-Cola and Pepsi's sparkling water brands to expand distribution, while the LaCroix brand is bound by limited reach to the C-store [convenience store] channel," analysts said. "We believe both Bubly and Topo Chico brands are seeing accelerating velocities as a consequence of the LaCroix slowdown." National Beverage stock have tumbled 28% year to date while the S&P 500 index has gained 13.3% for the period.
taking market share from its flagship LaCroix flavored soda water beverages. National Beverage stock was trading at $51.11 on the Nasdaq Stock Market after Jefferies analyst Kevin Grundy kicked off coverage of the company with an underperform rating and a $45 price target. Grundy said in a research note to clients that a "significant deceleration" in LaCroix sales and profitability is not adequately reflected in the company's current share price, adding that National Beverage's upcoming earnings are likely to underwhelm current analyst forecasts.
The maker of LaCroix is blaming a lawsuit for hurting its financial results, but does that excuse check out?
Want to participate in a short research study? Help shape the future of investing tools and you could win a $250 gift card! Anyone researching National Beverage Corp. (NASDAQ:FIZZ) might want to consider the historical volati...
A whopping number of 13F filings filed with U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has been processed by Insider Monkey so that individual investors can look at the overall hedge fund sentiment towards the stocks included in their watchlists. These freshly-submitted public filings disclose money managers’ equity positions as of the end of the three-month period […]
We often see insiders buying up shares in companies that perform well over the long term. On the other hand, we'd be remiss not to mention that insider sales have been known to precede tough periods for a business. So before you buy o...
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National Beverage Corp. is proud to introduce Joy Bauer, MS, RDN, one of the nation’s leading health authorities, as the national dietitian representing LaCroix Sparkling Water.
CEO Nick Caporella apologized for the performance in a statement accompanying the report, saying, "We are truly sorry for these results. Warning! GuruFocus has detected 4 Warning Sign with HSY. The Food and Drug Administration has found the ingredient to be safe, but since then, the stock has fallen by almost 50%, exacerbated by the latest earnings report.
On Friday, the Wall Street Journal reported about potential safety issues at caregiver platform Care.com (NASDAQ:CRCM). Investors instantly took notice. Care.com stock had hit a five-year high at the beginning of the month; yet CRCM stock dropped 13% on Monday and another 5% on Tuesday.Source: Disney Via FlickrSome investors might argue that the sell-off is overdone -- and, in fact, that Care.com hasn't done anything wrong. As CEO Sheila Lirio Marcelo told the WSJ, "Care.com is a marketplace platform, like Indeed or LinkedIn." Customers are warned that Care.com is not aggressively screening caregivers -- and that background checks might be needed (and are available through the site, albeit for an additional fee).But from an investment standpoint, it hardly matters whether the argument made by the WSJ is fair. A somewhat similar issue hit a very different stock last week. National Beverage (NASDAQ:FIZZ), maker of LaCroix sparkling water, saw its revenue surprisingly decline after a lawsuit alleged the use of artificial (and potentially dangerous) flavors. That lawsuit seems scurrilous -- yet FIZZ is down by over 40% since it was filed.InvestorPlace - Stock Market News, Stock Advice & Trading TipsIf the WSJ article hurts Care.com's brand image, even a two-day, 17% decline, might not be enough. But the other issue is that the negative publicity isn't the only issue here. CRCM stock is far from cheap, and growth, while solid, doesn't look like enough to support the current valuation. In that context, the declines on Monday and Tuesday could be just the beginning. Care.com Stock ReboundsCare.com truly has executed an impressive turnaround. The stock started plunging soon after its 2014 IPO. An acquisition that year of subscription provider Citrus Lane was a disaster; the business was shuttered by the end of 2015. Short-sellers immediately questioned the viability of the company's business model, arguing that "matched" caregivers and their clients would simply depart the platform. CRCM stock traded as high as $30 after its IPO; it was at $5 by late 2015. * 15 Stocks Sitting on Huge Piles of Cash But the company managed to right the ship. A 2016 investment by CapitalG (then known as Google Capital), the venture capital arm of Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOG, NASDAQ:GOOGL), helped shore up investor confidence. Google's search expertise appears to have helped Care.com significantly lower its customer acquisition costs.Meanwhile, revenue has climbed steadily. And the nature of the platform model is that higher revenue equals higher margins -- and accelerating profits. Adjusted EBITDA was negative $5 million in 2015 -- and $32 million in 2018.As a result, CRCM soared. It cleared $25 last month -- a 400% gain. And then the bottom started falling out. Did Earnings Change the Case for CRCM Stock?The day before the WSJ article was published, Care.com released its fourth-quarter earnings. CRCM stock dropped 5.7% on the news.From a headline standpoint, it's difficult to see why the stock would have fallen. Adjusted EPS beat Street expectations; revenue missed narrowly. (Growth was 0.3 points lower than the average analyst estimate.) 2019 guidance appears to have been in-line with analyst expectations.It's possible investors were looking for a "beat and raise" report -- and sold CRCM when it didn't arrive. Again, the stock was at a five-year high before dipping modestly before earnings.That said, guidance doesn't seem particularly impressive. At the midpoint, Care.com is expecting 14% revenue growth next year. Adjusted EBITDA, however, should rise just 5.6%. Non-GAAP EPS guidance of 73 cents to 78 cents suggests a possible decline against 2018's 77-cent print.An argument existed on Thursday that the run in Care.com stock had gone a little too far. The stock traded at a high-20's multiple to 2019 EPS guidance. Yet earnings growth was guided to be relatively light. It's certainly possible that CRCM stock would have sold off even had the article not been published. Is CRCM Cheap Enough?Back below $20, three key issues should keep investors on the sidelines. The first is that the article may affect business going forward.To be fair, the WSJ wasn't the first to point out the potential dangers inherent in the platform. A case in Illinois, in which a Care.com babysitter pled guilty to murder of an infant, made national headlines in 2016, as have several others. A short seller raised similar issues, and others, last year. And Care.com, as it told the Journal, isn't necessarily responsible for the behavior of everyone on its platform. Criminals and scammers use all sorts of platforms, from Google to Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) to Craigslist.Still, there's a clear risk that the negative publicity will harm the Care.com brand. But we know for a fact that the article is likely to hit the company's margins.On Monday, the company disclosed changes to its policies in an 8-K filing. It won't post caregivers until its "preliminary screening process" has been completed. It is "exploring solutions" for identity verification and better background checks. It's removing some business listings (which total only drive 0.5% of sales), and creating a new board committee to focus on safety.These moves are going to add complexity to the platform and cost to Care.com. Marcelo admitted as much when she told the Journal that "our mission has been to provide a more cost-effective alternative to nanny agencies". The worry, given potential liability for bad actors (whether legally or simply in terms of another hit to the brand), is that Care.com may not be able to focus so purely on that mission. On the SidelinesThe third problem here is that CRCM simply isn't that cheap, even 20% and more below recent highs. On an earnings basis, CRCM stock looks closer to a value play. Backing out nearly $4 per share in cash, CRCM trades at 21x the midpoint of 2019 EPS guidance. EV/EBITDA looks a bit more aggressive, but still resasonable, at 16x.The issue is that both metrics back out a huge amount of stock-based compensation. (Care.com also owes 'paid in kind' dividends to CapitalG for four more years.) Share-based compensation represented well over half of 2018 Adjusted EBITDA -- and free cash flow. Add that back and CRCM looks much more expensive.And given the headline risk and the lack of growth, it looks too expensive. Admittedly, the business isn't doomed. Indeed, the new policies hopefully will improve safety on the site.But that's not necessarily a good thing for Care.com stock. In fact, it might be one more thing for investors to worry about.As of this writing, Vince Martin has no positions in any securities mentioned. More From InvestorPlace * 2 Toxic Pot Stocks You Should Avoid * 5 of the Best Stocks to Buy Under $10 * 7 Retail Stocks Winning in 2019 and Beyond * The 10 Best Stocks to Buy for the Bull Market's Anniversary Compare Brokers The post Why Care.com Stock Could Have Further to Fall appeared first on InvestorPlace.
From the looks of it, National Beverage Corp. (NYSE:FIZZ) is a brand in crisis mode. The parent company of leading sparkling water brand La Croix has seen its growth narrative come off the rails over the past several quarters as competition in the sparkling water category has heated up and broader market growth has cooled for FIZZ stock.Source: H. Michael Karshis (Modified)Meanwhile, management appears to be in damage control mode, the PR backlash hasn't been great, and the outlook for demand and profit growth to return in the near term is bleak.All together, FIZZ stock has dropped from a 52 week high of $120-plus six months ago, to prices below $60 today.InvestorPlace - Stock Market News, Stock Advice & Trading TipsAt this point in time, the bear thesis on FIZZ stock looks pretty compelling. You have a brand that is rapidly losing mind and market share in a slowing market, with falling margins and rising opex rates, too. All together, National Beverage Corp. will likely pivot into an era of sideways profits for the foreseeable future, which should lead to further weakness in FIZZ stock. * 15 Stocks Sitting on Huge Piles of Cash That thesis sounds good. But, it misses one big element: valuation.At current levels, FIZZ stock is dirt cheap. It's already priced for all those negatives. But, in the event that National Beverage Corp. actually turns sales around and stabilizes margins, this stock could fly higher.I think that's what will happen. In the big picture, National Beverage Corp. is losing share in a rapidly growing market that has supported and will continue to support multiple high volume brands. La Croix will be one of those high volume brands. As such, sales will stabilize. So will margins. And profits.None of that stabilization is priced in today. That's why now looks like the right time to buy the dip in FIZZ. The Brand Is Losing SteamThere's no question about it; La Croix is losing momentum. Revenues rose 18% last year. Then, throughout the course of fiscal 2019, they have fallen from 18% to 13%, to 7%, and finally to down 3% last quarter. As revenue growth has slowed, gross margins have come under pressure, as have opex rates. All together, profit growth has pivoted from hugely positive, to hugely negative.There's a few reasons behind this big pivot. First, the sparkling water category is slowing. There's nothing that National Beverage Corp. can do about this. Sparkling water market growth rates have steadily declined over the past several years, as is only natural for a red hot market with big growth rates.Second, competition in the sparkling water category has picked up. There's also nothing that National Beverage Corp. can do about this. More competitors have entered this market, include PepsiCo (NYSE:PEP) with their flavored sparkling water drink Bubly. Those new competitors have stolen share from La Croix.Thus, largely due to no fault of its own, La Croix brand is losing momentum. The financial implications of this are meaningful. Revenue growth will be way slower going forward thanks to falling market share. Gross margins will be pressured for the foreseeable future due to bigger pricing competition. Opex rates will head higher as the company will have to spend more to compete on the awareness front.Putting all that together, it's easy to see that National Beverage Corp's profit growth over the next several years won't be great. After back-to-back years of 30%-plus profit growth, investors weren't expecting great. As such, FIZZ has come under significant selling pressure over the past several quarters as weak profit growth has turned into a reality. The Valuation Is Cheap Enough to BuyWith sales slowing, margins retreating, and profits shrinking, it's tough to see why you would want to buy FIZZ here. But, the bull thesis is pretty simple. All those negatives are already priced in. Eventually, they will fade out. When they do, the stock will pop in a big way.The reality is that, while La Croix is losing market share to newer entrants in the sparkling water category, this brand still remains one of, if not the, most important brand in the sparkling water market.It's easy to see La Croix's dominance weakening going forward. But, it's equally tough to see the brand not being one of the top sparkling water drinks in any time horizon, given that La Croix has become almost synonymous with sparkling water.As such, La Croix should be able to grow revenues at a slightly slower rate than the entire sparkling water category. The entire sparkling water category projects as a double-digit grower over the next several years. Thus, La Croix should be able to grow revenues at a high single digit rate during that stretch.Gross margins will come under pressure, but should stabilize as competitive forces stabilize. Opex rates will likewise move higher, but should retreat in the long run thanks to high single digit revenue growth and stabilized competition.Overall, I think sparkling water market expansion can drive National Beverage's EPS towards $5 by fiscal 2025, even against a competitive backdrop. Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO) and Pepsi normally trade around 20 forward earnings. Based on that comp average 20 forward multiple, a realistic fiscal 2024 price target for FIZZ stock is $100. Discounted back by 10% per year, that equates to a fiscal 2019 price target of over $60.FIZZ trades at under $60 today. Thus, it's reasonable to say that, even considering all the competitive risks, FIZZ stock is undervalued relative to its long term growth prospects. Bottom Line on FIZZ StockI used to drink a lot of La Croix. Now, I drink some La Croix and some Bubly. Apparently, I'm not the only one who has started drinking Bubly, and FIZZ stock has dropped big as a result.But, I still drink La Croix, as do a ton of consumers, and the whole sparkling water category is still growing by a ton. Thus, growth in the long run will stabilize and remain healthy. FIZZ stock currently isn't priced for this. That's why buying the dip here looks like an opportunity.As of this writing, Luke Lango was long FIZZ. More From InvestorPlace * 2 Toxic Pot Stocks You Should Avoid * 5 of the Best Stocks to Buy Under $10 * 7 Retail Stocks Winning in 2019 and Beyond * The 10 Best Stocks to Buy for the Bull Market's Anniversary Compare Brokers The post Buy the Dip in National Beverage Because FIZZ Stock Is Ready to Pop appeared first on InvestorPlace.
National Beverage (FIZZ) has been in the headlines lately after a difficult third quarter caused the stock price to fall precipitously. While the results have softened lately, a look at National Beverage's financial results over the past decade shows just how impactful growth in the sparkling water category - and specifically growth for the LaCroix brand - has been for the business. Warning! GuruFocus has detected 4 Warning Sign with COST.
Feeding off of Thursday's strong selling, Friday's bearishness may have been a little too zealous from the get-go. Before the closing bell rang, the bulls were back to testing the waters, whittling the day's loss down to only 0.21% for the S&P 500. The intraday rebound leaves stocks on unclear footing headed into Monday's trading.Kroger (NYSE:KR) was a key laggard. After losing 10% on Thursday after reporting disappointing fourth-quarter numbers and dishing out a lackluster full-year profit outlook, the sellers dug in again to leave of nearly 5% lower on Friday. National Beverage (NASDAQ:FIZZ) lost even more ground, however, falling 15% in response to earnings and a downgrade from Guggenheim, but perhaps also in response to some strange comments from CEO Nick Caporella.There were a handful of winners. Funko (NASDAQ:FNKO) popped more than 11%, snapping a four-day losing streak, fueled by the potential of a new children's book series. There just weren't enough Funko's to drag the broad market out of the red.InvestorPlace - Stock Market News, Stock Advice & Trading TipsAs Monday's trading action gets going, stock charts of Johnson Controls (NYSE:JCI), Citrix Systems (NASDAQ:CTXS) and Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO) are the names that should be on traders' radars. Here's why, and what to look for. Coca-Cola (KO)The big bearish gap Coca-Cola shares left behind last month may be aching to be filled in, but there's no particular timeframe the market has in mind when it makes a point of filling in those gaps. It happens when it happens\\. * 5 Airline Stocks In Serious Trouble And, with that as the backdrop, one more bearish day could drag Coca-Cola shares under a pivotal support level that could easily incite another wave of selling. Click to Enlarge • The support line in question is around $44.40, where KO has made a low several times since August if last year. It's plotted in blue on the daily chart.• Zooming out to the weekly chart of KO, we can see much more basis for the current retreat. Though the stock tried to buck the trend in February, the parallel support and resistance lines that prodded last year's advance and the pullback since November have been in place since 2013.• If the floor around $44.40 fails to hold up, the pattern says Coca-Cola stock could slide all the way back to the longer-term floor around $42.20. Johnson Controls (JCI)With nothing more than a quick glance, Johnson Controls looks like a decent long bet. It pushed its way back above its 200-day moving average line last month, and though last week it looked like it might fall back under it, the bulls stepped up to the plate on Thursday and Friday when most other stocks were getting thumped.When one takes a step back, however, it becomes clear that JCI shares still have a massive hurdle to clear. Crawling above it could be a huge bullish catalysts, but doing so would have to break a long-standing pattern. Click to Enlarge • The 200-day moving average line is plotted in white on both stock charts. That line served as a ceiling late last year, but failed to hold the rally back last month.• Although they're not perfect, Johnson Controls shares have been guided lower since early 2017 by a falling set of support and resistance lines, plotted in yellow.• Ironically, the worst thing that could happen here is a decisive one-day breakout thrust that only invites profit-taking thereafter. The more sustainable advance out of the channel would be slow and calculated. Citrix Systems (CTXS)Near the middle of last month we cautioned that Citrix Systems shares were stuck in a narrowing range, but struggling to move higher even within that range. Most of its moving average lines had started to keep rally efforts in check.Nothing really changed in the meantime. Though it took some time for the grandmother of all moving averages to get full bearish traction, that finally happened last week, in spades. Though we may see a bounce effort today, some major damage has been done. One more rough day could push CTXS over the edge. Click to Enlarge• With Friday's good-sized loss, Citrix has broken below the lower edge of a converging wedge pattern that has contained the stock since the middle of last year.• Bolstering the bearish case is repeated resistance at the white 200-day moving average line, most evident on the daily chart. After so many failed attempted to clear it, the bulls finally gave in.• The bounce from Friday's low is noteworthy, as it matched the low made in October. The bulls may have drawn a line in the sand there. If that support, plotted in green, is broken though, there's nothing else to keep shares propped up.As of this writing, James Brumley did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities. You can learn more about James at his site, jamesbrumley.com, or follow him on Twitter, at @jbrumley. More From InvestorPlace * 2 Toxic Pot Stocks You Should Avoid * 7 Dividend Stocks Already Rewarding Shareholders In 2019 * The 10 Best-Performing ETFs This Year * 7 Stocks That Should Be Worried About a Data Dividend Compare Brokers The post 3 Big Stock Charts for Monday: Coca-Cola, Citrix Systems and Johnson Controls appeared first on InvestorPlace.
National Beverage Corp. Chief Executive Nick Caporella, who has never quite stuck to the earnings-report script, deviated from the path in a much more extreme way Thursday.
National Beverage Corp., the maker of LaCroix sparkling water, reported a drop in quarterly sales for the first time in five years and issued an unusual apology, sending the company’s share price tumbling Friday. “We are truly sorry for these results,” Chairman and Chief Executive Nick A. Caporella, who is the company’s biggest shareholder, said in a news release. The Fort Lauderdale, Fla., company’s revenue was $220.9 million in the three months ended Jan. 26., down about 3% from a year ago and sharply below the nearly $300 million it booked in the July-ended quarter.