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Keltus, take a look at HCLP a frac sand MLP. They will start the Distribution back in Q4. Looks like $2 annual. I'm in up to my balls:)
TCAP was oversold, made new 12 mo-low of 14.11 today (last NAV 14.83), declared qtr dividend of 0.45 with ex-div date on 9/1/17, at its current price of 14.16, a 12.71% yield. Last NII was 0.41. Just added more at 14.21.
Below is a SA article by William Packer who posts on here as William , Pacman and other logins. He is a short term trader and shares my opinion of FSC.
￼ William Packer's Blog debt, bonds, REITs, long/short equity (321 followers) Send Message Please Note: Blog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors. FSC Remains A SELL Jul. 29, 2017 9:10 AM ET|3 comments Summary new non-accrual loans to hit NAV including ameritox (coming soon) NII continues to fall and will fall further under the new management NAV discount window will narrow from losses rather than appreciation I give a $5 price target for FSC vs $5.50-$5.60 range (where I sold) Sometimes you just got to maximize your value and move on when faced with poor performing assets like FSC. Its true that FSC will soon be managed by Oaktree but they are not miracle workers. They will have to work through the non-accruals that FSC currently faces and will face due to FSAMs decisions. NAV per share may drop for some time before stabilizing completely. If the share price stays stable near $5, total returns will provide about a 7% ROE to new investors buying near todays prices. While ROE will not be terrible, your funds can generate better returns in $MCC and $TCAP at these prices. MCC has a much better fee structure, trades at a steeper discount, and provides a higher yield. MCC is in the process of moving their portfolio into larger borrowers which will provide returns closer to the portfolios of their privately managed funds. MDLY, the manager of MCC, owns significant amounts of MCC and when coupled with the incentive fee total return hurdle affecting 100% of the incentive fee, interests are aligned with investors. MCC currently trades around $6.38 and I believe $7 is a reasonable near term price target subject to any major change to their NII/NAV over the next 6 months. Basically, if the NII/NAV drops considerably then you'll need to rethink the upwards price target level, or trade around the news - like potentially selling in the AM and buying back cheaper on the day of any bad earnings news. (Just to maximize your total return) TCAP is my favorite though, with their internally-managed fee structure and high yield north of 10%. This yield is covered since they just raised a lot of capital and received another SBIC license. So as capital is put to work and their leverage increases back to a more historical level, NII should accrete from the current 0.44(core NII run rate excluding 1 time charges) to 0.52 to 0.55 per share, covering their 0.45 dividend. It wont take more than a couple quarters to get back to these levels and the stock price should increase back to $19-$23 from the current $17.35 level.
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￼ Code Talker Market Analysis, Contributor Comments (1958) |+ Follow |Send Message Hello WP, as you know I respect your take, and, while I could see FSC reaching $5 a share near term -- especially on earnings release -- I believe it will be a mistake for investors to sell so low [with the exception, perhaps, of investors who absolutely must maintain an exact dividend payout for income AND who are convinced there will be a dividend cut] when share prices for FSC and FSFR are almost certainly going to be much higher a year from now under OAK's capable management.
It is more: can patient investors afford a possible -- not definite -- dividend cut, and can they average down during weakness in order to reap the reward of much higher share prices [along with dividend payments along the way] a year from now? 29 Jul 2017, 09:16 AM Report Abuse Reply 0 Like ￼ William Packer, Contributor Comments (1300) |Following |Send Message Author’s reply » $5 entry = possible move to $5.5 to $6.5 over next 24 months. (7.23 is stale and ameritox and a few other problem credits will take NAV down somewhat) Dividend ROE will be lower than peers due to high fees and lower investment yields. Oak will maximize NAV stability over time in order to extend the life on their fees and allow for the stock to equal or exceed NAV levels. (future NAV). I think there will be a better investment return in TCAP going forward than FSC. The odds of higher share prices, strong dividends and strong total returns (NAV change + dividends) are higher for TCAP by far given TCAPs current price, yield, and portfolio earnings quality. Internally-managed BDCs offer improved expense related performance as they scale and much lower + aligned expenses than externally-managed vehicles. TCAP gives the NAV stability that investors desire + high returns and that is a recipe for a strong valuation multiple.
I like MCCs fee structure way better than oaktree/fsam, and i question whether or not oaktree management will have a meaningful impact on the FSC portfolio over the next 4 quarters. I think that oak's impact will take longer. Yes, there is the psychological effect of having oak as the manager now but i think its factored into the current price.
in short, i just find that there are better returns available in the market and that FSC has upside but its not worth the risk compared to alternatives at this point. 29 Jul 2017, 10:44 AM Report Abuse Reply 0 Like ￼ William Packer, Contributor Comments (1300) |Following |Send Message Author’s reply » You'd actually get more upside and better returns out of FSFR than FSC at this point if picking between the two. 29 Jul 2017, 10:52 AM Report Abuse Reply 0 Like￼ Before you comment, why not add your picture? Username (*required) Add Your Comment:Share your comment:
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Tobacco shares anyone? Missed the opportunity on MO at $60. Really hoping it can drop down to low-$50s.
Preferred share closed end funds reducing dividend payouts. Popular CEFs like FFC are reducing dividend payouts by 3-8% due to a rise in cost of using leverage with a lower yield from new preferred share entries. Makes sense, they are going through the same conundrum that BDCs are in terms of nowhere to place new money to get the same yields on investments of a few years ago, AKA yield compression.
FSC will be over $6.25 before the transaction with Oaktree takes place in q3
hey phil, so you think JMP and Deutsche got their upgrades wrong? What do we professionals on this chat board know that they don't? GL
Mr.Phils Capital currently rates any thing Fifth Street as don't even think about it until portfolio flushing is accounted for in a earnings report.
Fifth Street Finance Corp. NASDAQ $FSC Correlation Histogram
FSC X axis : Stocks Price Correlation Coefficient Y axis : Quantity of stocks Sep-2016 1,000 Day Parameter 2,830 NASDAQ Stocks Price Analysis This stock mode of correlation coefficient is 0.7 In other words, the correlation coefficient of the other s
OakTree sealed the deal for FSAM. No common shares are included in the deal , new management and a new BOD and fees cut. I will wait for the portfolio to be flushed give it a hard look. But now it's party time on the Titanic with the price being bid up no mind the iceberg:) When it tops out in the short run it will be a nice short until OakTree cleans the deck with writedowns.
would it be worth buying any fsam??
Looks like this is heading to $7 soon ..
FSC will be over $7 after the Oak tree funds take over management