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Russell 2000 Futures
Arcimoto, Inc. (FUV)
NasdaqGM - NasdaqGM Real Time Price. Currency in USD
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At close: 04:00PM EDT
3,971 reactions on $FUV conversation
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Arcimoto has a new person as "investor relation lead" who will provide weekly update,going forward
Only 10,000 shares available to short at 68%
It just tells me that shorts didn't buy make many shares on Friday, otherwise I would have expected to have much more shares available for shorting today!
As of 9.15am EDT, only borrowable 10,000 shares for shorting at 76% borrowing fee...
Wasn't today for the Russell index to rebalance?
This massive trading of about 4 M shares that happened today during the last 15 minutes right before the bell cannot be the company all of a sudden rushing to sell 4M shares: if Arcimoto had needed to raise such funds ready to issue new shares representing +10% of the outstanding shares, Canaccord would have managed the process over several days, and not in a flash.
Now, I can believe that index funds dump shares in a flash when they need to rebalance their portfolios. Russell index ETFs must have approached short seller funds and must have organized for such a massive transfer in that record time.
If my guesswork is correct, that would mean that a third of the short interest was eager to find a way to close position and out of the game shorting FUV. This kind of opportunity to close is not going to repeat itself for those short sellers who remain with 8 M borrowed shares unclosed: good luck to those...it's going to be an interest time to watch.
I am happy to be in a Long seat right now...
So, this is my bet on FUV:
* In february 2024, pps of $30, based on 2023 earning report release:
==> 7,000 units produced/sold for the year and $140 M in revenues
==> EV/Rev multiple of 10, based on y-o-y 600% annual growth rate and 90% fwd 3-yr cagr (to reach 50,000 units by 2026)
==> Enterprise value of $1.4Bn, net debt of about $100M, and Market Cap of $1.3Bn
==> $33 pps before dilution, and $30 pps after 10% dilution
* between now (pps of $3.80) and 02/2024 (pps of $30), linear trend upward over a 20-month period suggesting a average pps increase of $1.30 per month:
==> by year end 2022: avg pps = $3.80 + $1.30x6 months = $11.60
==> by end 06/2023: avg pps = $11.60 + $1.30x6 months = $19.20
On average, that would represent a 421% profit on today's investment in 12 months.
Now, that's just for the trend. One immediate implication of that strong upward trend is that the short interest is going to be put under tremendous pressure over the next 3 to 6 months. If the short ratio goes back to a more normal state, from 16 days to say 4 days, this means that 3/4 of the current 12.5M shares = about 9 M shares need to be bought back and closed by short sellers. If they manage to buy at $4, that would require $36M in cash from them. If they buy back at $8 a share, that will cost them $72 M in cash instead. The problem is clear, the sooner they close the better, but they hold each other hostage because whoever starts to close first triggers the short squeeze.
I would anticipate a pps fluctuation of at least 50% around the trend between now and year-end. Translation: if the short seller stampede starts now, pps will swing between $4 and $6. If the stampede happens around year end when the trend is around $11 and $12, the fluctuation will push the pps towards $18 by year-end.
Short interest on this is 41% of float.. is this the next squeeze? One of the most shorted stocks atm
Did anyone on here sit in on the Twitter audio meeting Mark had last week? There was only about 15-20 participants. Mark was answering questions from anyone that had one. Pretty cool. You can’t get more transparent then that. He mentioned they cancelled the annual meeting because people had not voted their shares. It was rescheduled but I don’t remember the date.
FUV is a hot stock today. My thinking is production of six FUVs per day and marketing that news is the catalyst. Go Arcimoto!
A small update from LG investment on Arcimoto
Come on..Ramp up already in line..Now new TP $150.
Blue, Mick, Ron are trolls
Blue Fisherman is a well know short. Be careful of what he does here. He’ll say buy buy while he sales.
Does anyone know the financial repercussions if there is no quorum again?
If they can build 8/d during the next 12mo, rent the first half, and sell the other half, at $100/d, the firat half can earn $27M, and the 2nd half sold to customers can bring in $21M, totaling TTM rev of $48M. Not bad.
Made another buy @ $3.27 today
The low range for the Russell 2000 is $240m this year... So looks like FUV is out.
Once that selling is over (this month), she should trade on company news, real news, production and delivery numbers.
I bought yesterday, first time in a long time @ $3.40.
I'm not a Gerber fan, but this clip was convincing (within a broader picture of all things EV)...
They sold 24 units last quarter after 17 years in business.
I think the new hires are a bulish sign. Few reasons: 1. I don't see folks at this caliber jumping ship from Ayro and Solo just to join another sinking ship. In other words, they wouldn't have joined Archimoto if they thought there's a good chance it's going bankrupt anytie soon. I imagine they are aware of the financial situation, and must have gotten some assurances from Mark and team. 2. It speaks about the competition.
"At full capacity, the RAMP is expected to have a production capacity of 50,000 vehicles per year." But in Qtr 1 2022 they sold 24 "vehicles"
Bought as much as I could today @ $3.07.
I'm all in. Roll them dice.
Any word from the shareholder meeting? I couldn't make it today.
Warren Buffett wants his entire $96 billion fortune spent within 10 years of his death. Every kid on the planet might get a cut
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