|Bid||0.0000 x 1000|
|Ask||0.0000 x 1000|
|Day's Range||71.9800 - 72.1815|
|52 Week Range||70.3300 - 81.3600|
|PE Ratio (TTM)||N/A|
|Beta (3Y Monthly)||15.03|
|Expense Ratio (net)||0.40%|
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The US Dollar Index (UUP) posted four consecutive daily declines in the previous week as trade tensions escalated between the US and its trading partners. The interesting thing, however, was that the decline in the US dollar was because of the declining bond yields rather than appreciation of other currencies. The increased positive correlation between the US dollar and the US bond yields was the key driver in the US dollar rally in recent weeks.
The US Dollar Index (UUP) managed a sharp recovery last week. The appreciation seemed to be due to tariff announcements instead of the Fed’s hawkish tone after the May FOMC meeting. The only interpretation of the rise in the US dollar would be that investors were seeing trade tensions as a temporary setback to global trade, which could result in a better deal for the US. The US Dollar Index closed for the week ending June 15 at 94.78 and appreciated 1.3%.
What's in Store for Foreign Exchange Markets This Week? The US Dollar Index (UUP) gave up some of its gains as short covering in the FX (foreign exchange) markets and a decline in US bond (BND) yields took their toll. Economic data from the US was limited, but traders’ anxiety about the G7 summit, the US-North Korea summit, and a series of central bank meetings limited any gains in the US dollar.
The US Dollar Index (UUP) continued to appreciate but did so slowly in the week that ended on May 25. Rising political uncertainty in Europe, seesawing trade negotiations between the United States and China, and the diplomatic tussle between the United States and North Korea had an impact on currency markets in the week.
Last week, the US dollar (UUP) index bounced back from a minor pullback in the week ended May 11. Both are positive for the US dollar. According to the latest Commitment of Traders report released on May 18 by the Chicago Futures Trading Commission, large speculators and traders have trimmed their short positions on the US dollar index.
The US dollar index (UUP) took a breather last week, closing at 92.44, 0.03% higher than its close of 92.41 in the week ended May 4. The US dollar’s three-week rally was interrupted by the weak inflation report published last week, which was preceded by a weak jobs report on May 4. This US dollar slowdown could only be a speed breaker as the Fed remains the only central bank expected to tighten policies in the near term. The recently rejuvenated dollar-bond market correlation could continue supporting the dollar against major developed, developing, and emerging market currencies.
In April, the US dollar index posted one of its best monthly gains (2.0%) since November 2016, and it looks set to continue with the trend this month. The main reason for this appreciation has been a higher positive correlation between the US dollar and bond yields. Rising bond yields increase the US-international bond spread, which increases preference for US bonds as they have better ratings.
The US dollar (UUP) gained some lost ground last week due to reduced risk aversion, rising bond yields, weak economic data from global peers, and higher commodity prices. The US dollar rallied after bond yields started to rise and the ten-year yield broke past the February 2018 high. Economic data from the US included an acceptable level of retail sales and an optimistic Federal Beige Book. The US Dollar Index closed above 90.0 for the first time in five weeks and posted a weekly gain of 0.65%.
The US dollar (UUP) came under pressure after Donald Trump, in a tweet, accused Russia and China “playing the Currency Devaluation game as the U.S. keeps raising interest rates. Not acceptable!” Trump’s complaint has been interpreted as an attempt to escalate tensions to achieve favorable trade negotiation terms. According to the latest Commitment of Traders report, released on April 13 by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, large speculators and traders have increased their short positions on the US dollar for a third consecutive week. This amount is a combination of the US dollar’s contracts against the combined contracts of the euro (FXE), British pound (FXB), Japanese yen (FXY), Australian dollar (FXA), Canadian dollar (FXC), and Swiss franc.
The US Dollar Index appreciated for a fourth consecutive week due in part to the impressive industrial production and consumer confidence numbers that were reported at the end of the previous week. Earlier in the previous week, lower-than-expected inflation growth and retail sales numbers had little impact on the US dollar as markets have already priced in a rate hike from the US Fed at its March meeting. The turmoil in the White House had a marginal negative impact on the US dollar as the pressure from the Mueller probe reached the Trump businesses last week.
The US Dollar Index returned to strength as risk appetite remained stable and the FOMC minutes signaled further tightening through interest rate hikes. Higher interest rates in the US could lead to the appreciation of the US dollar against its trading partners. The other reason for the US dollar’s appreciation is the weakness in the euro, which was triggered by the dovish statement from the European Central Bank.
Is Volatility Set to Drop Further after Stock Market Rebound? The US Dollar Index, whose slide had been stalled in the past two weeks, saw losses as markets recovered last week. Better-than-expected inflation growth should have increased the demand for the US dollar, but the surprise reaction of equity markets was also seen in the forex markets with the US dollar sliding against the major currencies.