|Bid||84.00 x 1300|
|Ask||88.50 x 1000|
|Day's Range||84.75 - 84.86|
|52 Week Range||83.92 - 91.62|
|PE Ratio (TTM)||N/A|
|Expense Ratio (net)||0.40%|
Investors worried that a global recession is forthcoming should ditch emerging market currencies and stock up on the Swiss franc, Singapore dollar, U.S. dollar and Japanese yen, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. ( JPM). In a research note, reported on by Bloomberg, analysts at the bank responded to these warnings by examining historical trends over the past five recessions to determine which currencies are best to own when economic activity declines significantly.
The US Dollar Index (UUP) posted four consecutive daily declines in the previous week as trade tensions escalated between the US and its trading partners. The interesting thing, however, was that the decline in the US dollar was because of the declining bond yields rather than appreciation of other currencies. The increased positive correlation between the US dollar and the US bond yields was the key driver in the US dollar rally in recent weeks.
The US Dollar Index (UUP) managed a sharp recovery last week. The appreciation seemed to be due to tariff announcements instead of the Fed’s hawkish tone after the May FOMC meeting. The only interpretation of the rise in the US dollar would be that investors were seeing trade tensions as a temporary setback to global trade, which could result in a better deal for the US. The US Dollar Index closed for the week ending June 15 at 94.78 and appreciated 1.3%.
A host of Trump’s anti-trade policies has been playing foul in the stock market, leading to increased market uncertainty and trade tensions between the United States and countries around the world. After both the United States and China reached an agreement and vowed not to launch a trade war against each other, Trump’s announcement to impose a hefty 25% tariff on $50 billion worth of Chinese goods escalated tensions between the two. Trump also plans to restrict Chinese investment in U.S. companies and limit the number of goods that these can sell to China.
Last week, the Japanese yen (JYN) managed its first weekly gain against the US dollar in nine weeks as global risk aversion increased in response to political and geopolitical uncertainties. The yen (FXY) closed the week at 109.39, rising 1.2% against the US dollar (UUP). The news about US President Donald Trump canceling the US–North Korea summit and political uncertainties in Europe increased the demand for safe-haven assets, including the yen.
The US Dollar Index (UUP) continued to appreciate but did so slowly in the week that ended on May 25. Rising political uncertainty in Europe, seesawing trade negotiations between the United States and China, and the diplomatic tussle between the United States and North Korea had an impact on currency markets in the week.
To receive further updates on this PowerShares Japanese Yen ETF (NYSEARCA:FXY) trade as well as an alert when it’s time to take profits, sign up for a risk-free trial of SlingShot Trader today. The yen rises in value when trade concerns and currency devaluations appear.
In Wednesday's Daily Market Commentary webinar, our analysts discussed the importance of using exchange rates as an early warning sign of bearish moves in the stock market. Stock investors may not be generally aware that the Japanese yen and the U.S. stock market have a high level of inverse correlation. If the yen is rising, there is a good chance that stocks will languish or fall.
Last week, the Japanese yen (JYN) depreciated against the US dollar for the eighth consecutive week as the dollar continued its upward surge. It was the best run for the dollar against the yen since October 2014. The primary reason for the yen’s weakness is the widening spread between the US and Japanese treasuries, which is being driven by strong US economic performance compared to Japan.
Last week, the US dollar (UUP) index bounced back from a minor pullback in the week ended May 11. Both are positive for the US dollar. According to the latest Commitment of Traders report released on May 18 by the Chicago Futures Trading Commission, large speculators and traders have trimmed their short positions on the US dollar index.
The US Iran nuclear deal pullout failed to increase demand for haven bids such as the yen. The yen (FXY) closed last week at 109.39 against the US dollar (UUP), depreciating by 0.25%. A weak yen is positive for the export-dependent Japanese economy.
The US dollar index (UUP) took a breather last week, closing at 92.44, 0.03% higher than its close of 92.41 in the week ended May 4. The US dollar’s three-week rally was interrupted by the weak inflation report published last week, which was preceded by a weak jobs report on May 4. This US dollar slowdown could only be a speed breaker as the Fed remains the only central bank expected to tighten policies in the near term. The recently rejuvenated dollar-bond market correlation could continue supporting the dollar against major developed, developing, and emerging market currencies.
Last week, the Japanese yen (JYN) depreciated against the US dollar for a sixth consecutive week as the US dollar continued to rally. The US dollar rallied due to the Fed’s hawkishness and continued economic improvement. As Japanese markets were closed for three days last week, there was limited data reported from the Japanese economy. In the week ended May 4, the yen (FXY) closed at 109.1 against the US dollar (UUP), depreciating 0.06%. The yen’s (YCL) dream run seems to be done for now, and yen speculators have moved into bearish territory after staying net long for a little over four weeks.
In April, the US dollar index posted one of its best monthly gains (2.0%) since November 2016, and it looks set to continue with the trend this month. The main reason for this appreciation has been a higher positive correlation between the US dollar and bond yields. Rising bond yields increase the US-international bond spread, which increases preference for US bonds as they have better ratings.
It's no secret that Japanese stocks and the yen often move in opposite directions. The inverse relationship was on display in the first quarter when the WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity Fund (NYSE: DXJ ) ...
The Japanese yen (JYN) depreciated against the US dollar for a fifth consecutive week, as the US dollar continued to rally on the back of higher bond yields and the prospect of a faster rate hike pace from the US Fed. The Bank of Japan had its April meeting and left all policy rates unchanged, and the key takeaway was removing the target date to achieve the 2% inflation target. Japanese yen (YCL) speculators are moving back into short territory after staying net-long for four weeks. As per the latest “Commitment of Traders” (or COT) report, released on April 27 by the Chicago Futures Trading Commission (or CFTC), speculators on the Japanese yen had a net long position of 583 contracts, compared to 2,591 long contracts the week before.
The Japanese yen (JYN) continued its depreciating trend in the previous week. Risk aversion receded and the US dollar rallied following higher bond yields and commodity prices. Now that geopolitical risks have declined, the demand for the yen as a safe haven will likely be low and could lead to more depreciation.
The US dollar (UUP) gained some lost ground last week due to reduced risk aversion, rising bond yields, weak economic data from global peers, and higher commodity prices. The US dollar rallied after bond yields started to rise and the ten-year yield broke past the February 2018 high. Economic data from the US included an acceptable level of retail sales and an optimistic Federal Beige Book. The US Dollar Index closed above 90.0 for the first time in five weeks and posted a weekly gain of 0.65%.
The Japanese yen (JYN), a safe haven asset, has failed to appreciate despite an increase in uncertainty in recent weeks. Despite ongoing trade war concerns and the US-led attack on Syrian chemical weapon facilities, the yen fell. In the week ended April 13, the yen (FXY) closed at 107.3 against the US dollar (UUP), depreciating by 0.38%.
The US dollar (UUP) came under pressure after Donald Trump, in a tweet, accused Russia and China “playing the Currency Devaluation game as the U.S. keeps raising interest rates. Not acceptable!” Trump’s complaint has been interpreted as an attempt to escalate tensions to achieve favorable trade negotiation terms. According to the latest Commitment of Traders report, released on April 13 by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, large speculators and traders have increased their short positions on the US dollar for a third consecutive week. This amount is a combination of the US dollar’s contracts against the combined contracts of the euro (FXE), British pound (FXB), Japanese yen (FXY), Australian dollar (FXA), Canadian dollar (FXC), and Swiss franc.
The Japanese yen (JYN) managed to claw back its losses after the scare about a second round of tariffs hit the global financial markets last week. Japan’s February exports, March manufacturing, and inflation reports are expected this week.