29.53 +0.10 (0.34%)
Pre-Market: 8:46AM EST
|Bid||0.00 x 1100|
|Ask||0.00 x 1800|
|Day's Range||28.65 - 29.57|
|52 Week Range||25.91 - 36.08|
|PE Ratio (TTM)||N/A|
|Beta (3Y Monthly)||0.41|
|Expense Ratio (net)||0.54%|
MORRIS: That’s interesting. Well, now let’s move on to the companies. I’ve heard you say a number of times that you think the industry is in great shape, they’ve contained their cost. The companies are in great shape. Can you tell us a little bit more about your view of the companies’ position right now financially?
Is Gold Positioned for a Bullish Turn as We Enter 2019? FOSTER: We’re at the point in the cycle I think investors should think of some defensive measures. MORRIS: One other thing I wanted to talk to you about today, is that there’s been some recent merger activity, and I remember hearing that you’d actually looked at the recent developments as pretty positive overall, for the industry, and could be another positive catalyst for gold miners.
Can you think right now if some of the current geopolitical events in the world, and something that in your mind might trigger a resumption of a new bull market for gold out of this space, and off this space?
Which Gold Miners Have Shown Upside Potential since Q3? Among the senior gold miners under our review (GDX) (GDXJ), analysts are most optimistic about Goldcorp (GG). A year ago, only 40% of analysts had “buy” ratings on the stock.
Which Gold Miners Have Shown Upside Potential since Q3? As precious metals prices started weakening, investors shifted their focus from high-leverage miners (GDX) (GDXJ) to low-leverage miners with sound growth plans, leading miners to trim their balance sheets. Newmont Mining’s (NEM) net debt at the end of the third quarter was ~$1.1 billion compared to $1.9 billion at the end of 2016.
Kinross Gold’s (KGC) liquidity position at the end of the third quarter was reflected its strategic investments. The company had cash and cash equivalents of $500 million in the third quarter compared to $918.7 million at the end of the second quarter. This liquidity position is significant given that the company doesn’t have any debt maturity until 2021.
Kinross Gold (KGC) produced 586,260 gold equivalent ounces in the third quarter, a 10% fall YoY (year-over-year). Kinross’s quarterly production was its lowest in years in the quarter. Most of the above-listed factors were also responsible for the company’s 9% YoY fall in production in the first nine months of the year.
Newmont Mining (NEM) saw its debt rise at the peak of the cycle due to expensive acquisitions, which have now been brought under control. Its net debt at the end of the third quarter was ~$1.1 billion compared to $1.9 billion at the end of 2016. Newmont’s net debt-to-adjusted EBITDA multiple was 0.4x at the end of the third quarter compared to 0.7x at the end of the second quarter of 2017 and 1.3x at the end of 2015.
Newmont Mining (NEM) has one of the best project pipelines in the sector (GDX) (GDXJ)—it may even be stronger than Kinross Gold’s (KGC), Barrick Gold’s (ABX), and AngloGold Ashanti’s (AU) project pipelines. Newmont Mining is poised to overtake Barrick Gold as the world’s largest gold producer in 2018. For more information, read Barrick Gold versus Newmont: Comparing Miners in 2018 and Beyond.
VanEck announced today preliminary yearend distribution estimates for its VanEck Vectors® equity exchange-traded funds.
As Positive Catalysts for Gold Emerge, Which Miners May Benefit? Among intermediate gold miners (GDXJ), Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) has the highest forward EV-to-EBITDA (enterprise value-to-EBITDA) multiple of 10.6x, which implies a whopping premium of 76.0% to its close peers. AEM’s strong operational consistency and its exploration program support a higher multiple for the stock.
Historically, IAMGOLD (IAG) has traded at a lower valuation than its peers. Due to its significant turnaround in 2017, the stock’s multiple rerated in 2017, and it’s since reverted back due to IAG’s weak operational performance.
Production growth is a crucial variable for miners. Barrick Gold (ABX) produced ~1.15 million ounces of gold in the third quarter, a fall of ~7.0% YoY (year-over-year). Improved throughput and grades at Barrick Nevada and the completion of debottlenecking improvements at Pueblo Viejo aided this improvement.
Yamana Gold’s (AUY) valuation multiples, which represent how much investors are willing to pay for a stock based on analysts’ estimates, have ranged between 4.3x and 9.8x over the last five years. Currently, Yamana Gold is trading at a forward EV-to-EBITDA multiple of 5.3x.
The EV-to-EBITDA (enterprise value to earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization) multiple is a good valuation measure for capital-intensive industries. The chart above compares gold miners’ EV-to-forward-EBITDA multiples and EBITDA margins one-year forward. Among the senior and intermediate gold miners, Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) has the highest forward multiple of 10.3x, almost in line with its last-five-year average multiple.
Eldorado Gold (EGO) stock dropped significantly in 2017 due to the standoff with the Greek government and some technical issues at its mines in Turkey. The stock continues to be pummeled due to these issues in 2018.
By October 17, Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) has lost 20.3% of its value YTD (year-to-date), while the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) had fallen 14.3%. Among senior and intermediate miners (GDX)(GDXJ), Newmont Mining (NEM), AngloGold Ashanti (AU), Barrick Gold (ABX), and Goldcorp (GG) have performed better than AEM. Agnico Eagle is known to deliver consistent results throughout its cycles.
New Gold (NGD) stock has had the worst stock performance YTD (year-to-date) among the miners in our survey. Until October 17, 76% of its market value has been eroded in 2018. This is a significant underperformance to its peers (GDXJ)(NUGT).
Among the senior and intermediate miners (GDX) (GDXJ), New Gold (NGD), Barrick Gold (ABX), and Eldorado Gold (EGO) have the fewest “buy” ratings at 0.0%, 14.0%, and 17.0%, respectively.
In the senior and intermediate gold miner space (GDX)(GDXJ), analysts are the most bullish on IAMGOLD (IAG), with ~75.0% of analysts assigning it a “buy.” About 25.0% of these analysts rated it as a “hold,” and there were no “sell” ratings. Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) comes next with 72.0% “buy” ratings. Yamana Gold (AUY) closely follows Agnico with 71.0% “buy” ratings.
Agnico Eagle Mines’ (AEM) operating performance in 2017 was quite strong. Rising 10.0%, its stock almost matched the benchmark gold miners’ index’s (GDX) performance. In 2018, however, it has been weaker.
Analysts’ Views: Is It Time to Look at Gold Miners? Of the 21 analysts covering Barrick Gold (ABX), only 14.0% recommend a “buy” for the stock, the lowest percentage of “buy” recommendations among the senior miner stocks (GDX). The decline in analysts’ optimism is mainly due to consistent issues at some of its mines.